Re: December 2017: Pattern Change/Much Colder Weather Possib
Posted: Wed Dec 06, 2017 8:41 am
Time to pray to the Winter Gods to keep this polar express rolling through Christmas and New Years
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December 2017: End Of The Year Weather
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Re: December 2017: Pattern Change/Much Colder Weather Possib
Posted: Wed Dec 06, 2017 9:10 am
Maybe......
Re: December 2017: Pattern Change/Much Colder Weather Possib
Posted: Wed Dec 06, 2017 9:46 am
Cold keeps moving to the west with each run.... positive trend!
Re: December 2017: Pattern Change/Much Colder Weather Possib
Posted: Wed Dec 06, 2017 9:54 am
Noticing the shorter term mesoscale models as well as the SPC SREF Ensembles being rather aggressive with the possibility of wintery precipitation extending from S Texas up the Coast into portions of Southern and Southeastern Louisiana. Likely overdone, but with a 500mb cold core upper low near El Paso and a Coastal low/wave along the front in the Gulf, it might be worth monitoring from a novelty standpoint.
Re: December 2017: Pattern Change/Much Colder Weather Possib
Posted: Wed Dec 06, 2017 10:10 am
What would that mean for the College Station area?srainhoutx wrote:Noticing the shorter term mesoscale models as well as the SPC SREF Ensembles being rather aggressive with the possibility of wintery precipitation extending from S Texas up the Coast into portions of Southern and Southeastern Louisiana. Likely overdone, but with a 500mb cold core upper low near El Paso and a Coastal low/wave along the front in the Gulf, it might be worth monitoring from a novelty standpoint.
Re: December 2017: Pattern Change/Much Colder Weather Possib
Posted: Wed Dec 06, 2017 10:30 am
This is just for fun purposes only and it is the NAM, but Srain was alluding to this factor in his morning forecast...
Re: December 2017: Pattern Change/Much Colder Weather Possib
Posted: Wed Dec 06, 2017 10:34 am
Looks encouraging for us here in SE Louisiana....tireman4 wrote:This is just for fun purposes only and it is the NAM, but Srain was alluding to this factor in his morning forecast...
Re: December 2017: Pattern Change/Much Colder Weather Possib
Posted: Wed Dec 06, 2017 10:36 am
FXUS64 KHGX 061559
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
959 AM CST Wed Dec 6 2017
.DISCUSSION...
The surface front was well offshore this morning. A fairly
saturated airmass from at least 850 mb through 500 mb in
combination with the jet aloft was helping to generate light rain
across the area. Expect the light rain to continue throughout
today. Winds have been borderline advisory criteria along the
immediate coast and will keep the advisory in place. The wind
advisory ends at 3:00 PM. Only made a few tweaks to the rain
chances through tonight.
40
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 600 AM CST Wed Dec 6 2017/
AVIATION...
Lowering ceilings are anticipated today as periods of rain continue
moving across the area. Current VFR levels should become MVFR under
the increasing rain coverage, and some spots could drop to IFR with
embedded heavier rain activity. Reduced visibilities are possible
too with the rains. Similar conditions are expected to persist this
evening and overnight. North winds will be around 10 knots well in-
land around 20 knots and gusty near the coast. 42
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
959 AM CST Wed Dec 6 2017
.DISCUSSION...
The surface front was well offshore this morning. A fairly
saturated airmass from at least 850 mb through 500 mb in
combination with the jet aloft was helping to generate light rain
across the area. Expect the light rain to continue throughout
today. Winds have been borderline advisory criteria along the
immediate coast and will keep the advisory in place. The wind
advisory ends at 3:00 PM. Only made a few tweaks to the rain
chances through tonight.
40
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 600 AM CST Wed Dec 6 2017/
AVIATION...
Lowering ceilings are anticipated today as periods of rain continue
moving across the area. Current VFR levels should become MVFR under
the increasing rain coverage, and some spots could drop to IFR with
embedded heavier rain activity. Reduced visibilities are possible
too with the rains. Similar conditions are expected to persist this
evening and overnight. North winds will be around 10 knots well in-
land around 20 knots and gusty near the coast. 42
Re: December 2017: Pattern Change/Much Colder Weather Possib
Posted: Wed Dec 06, 2017 11:57 am
Well this is turning out quite interesting for South of I-10...overnight thursday and friday morning
Re: December 2017: Pattern Change/Much Colder Weather Possib
Posted: Wed Dec 06, 2017 12:52 pm
Yes! 12z Euro looks interesting... it shows temps in the mid to upper 30s Friday morning with snow/sleet even in metro Houston fwiw Im also starting to think that by tomorrow afternoon there could be some sleet mixing in with the rain as 850 mb temps are shown by several models to be below freezing.
Re: December 2017: Pattern Change/Much Colder Weather Possib
Posted: Wed Dec 06, 2017 1:40 pm
don wrote:Yes! 12z Euro looks interesting... it shows temps in the mid to upper 30s Friday morning with snow/sleet even in metro Houston fwiw Im also starting to think that by tomorrow afternoon there could be some sleet mixing in with the rain as 850 mb temps are shown by several models to be below freezing.
Re: December 2017: Pattern Change/Much Colder Weather Possib
Posted: Wed Dec 06, 2017 1:59 pm
That just looks like a big mess right there.
Re: December 2017: Pattern Change/Much Colder Weather Possib
Posted: Wed Dec 06, 2017 2:00 pm
Well, that's not going to get the TV stations all slobbery with excitement for covering a slide-athon, here.
I'm sad for all the Harvey 'refugees' spending their time in tents.
I'm sad for all the Harvey 'refugees' spending their time in tents.
Re: December 2017: Pattern Change/Much Colder Weather Possib
Posted: Wed Dec 06, 2017 2:06 pm
Quick question - Is the frozen precip potential resulting from the base of the trough rotating through, allowing for a deeper column of cold air to pass overhead?
Re: December 2017: Pattern Change/Much Colder Weather Possib
Posted: Wed Dec 06, 2017 2:28 pm
snowman65 wrote:What would that mean for the College Station area?srainhoutx wrote:Noticing the shorter term mesoscale models as well as the SPC SREF Ensembles being rather aggressive with the possibility of wintery precipitation extending from S Texas up the Coast into portions of Southern and Southeastern Louisiana. Likely overdone, but with a 500mb cold core upper low near El Paso and a Coastal low/wave along the front in the Gulf, it might be worth monitoring from a novelty standpoint.
Could be a Christmas Eve 2004 scenario - see my Avatar
We'd have to drive SE to see snow. 
Re: December 2017: Pattern Change/Much Colder Weather Possib
Posted: Wed Dec 06, 2017 2:32 pm
Well, that is a switch....lolDoctorMu wrote:snowman65 wrote:What would that mean for the College Station area?srainhoutx wrote:Noticing the shorter term mesoscale models as well as the SPC SREF Ensembles being rather aggressive with the possibility of wintery precipitation extending from S Texas up the Coast into portions of Southern and Southeastern Louisiana. Likely overdone, but with a 500mb cold core upper low near El Paso and a Coastal low/wave along the front in the Gulf, it might be worth monitoring from a novelty standpoint.
Could be a Christmas Eve 2004 scenario - see my Avatar
Re: December 2017: Pattern Change/Much Colder Weather Possib
Posted: Wed Dec 06, 2017 2:33 pm
18z NAM is back at it again with the Snow.
Re: December 2017: Pattern Change/Much Colder Weather Possib
Posted: Wed Dec 06, 2017 3:06 pm
Humm....the GFS is interesting too....
Re: December 2017: Pattern Change/Much Colder Weather Possib
Posted: Wed Dec 06, 2017 3:07 pm
The NAM 12 Z
Re: December 2017: Pattern Change/Much Colder Weather Possib
Posted: Wed Dec 06, 2017 3:24 pm
Add the RGEM to the snow list.....and GFS.