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Ptarmigan I really wouldn’t be shocked if we get a quick spin up

Alicia comes to mind.

Rip76 wrote: ↑Thu Aug 05, 2021 12:13 am Alicia comes to mind.

August 17th would be the 38 year anniversary of that mess. I was too young to remember but mom and dad always talk about how bad that one was.

NOAA has updated its forecast calling for more storms this hurricane season.

Bluejay not surprised, active phase of the MJO enters Atlantic by this weekend or early next week and thats really going to fire things up big time

BlueJay wrote: ↑Thu Aug 05, 2021 9:32 am NOAA has updated its forecast calling for more storms this hurricane season.

Take from Space City Weather:

On Thursday NOAA released an updated version of its Atlantic season hurricane forecast and some media coverage framed it in a fairly intimidating way—suggesting the forecast had gotten "worse" or more dangerous in some way. The reality is that the forecast increased from an estimate of 13-20 named storms for this season to 15 to 21 named storms, and 6-10 hurricanes to 7 to 10 hurricanes.

This "increase" simply reflects the fact that the early season was a little more active than anticipated, and that overall nothing has changed with regard to tropical activity for the remainder of the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season. Frankly, we already knew this was going to be an active season. And as Matt wrote on Tuesday, the tropics are now heating up on schedule, with the next six to eight weeks are the time of greatest concern for Texas. Fortunately, there are no immediate threats to the Gulf of Mexico and we'll continue to take it day by day.

https://spacecityweather.com/enjoy-the- ... s-weekend/

I think we will see some gulf mischief sooner rather than later IMO

I'm looking forwarded to some cold fronts!

Nice swirl on water vapor loop down near the Yucatan.

Cromagnum yep nice swirl but its an ULL I believe, not much convection associated with it

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Thu Aug 05, 2021 2:28 pm Cromagnum yep nice swirl but its an ULL I believe, not much convection associated with it

I'm more interested in the slop south of Alabama.

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Thu Aug 05, 2021 2:28 pm Cromagnum yep nice swirl but its an ULL I believe, not much convection associated with it

Yep. Naked swirl.

Cromagnum and DoctorMu The gulf is gonna look interesting next week when the active phase of the MJO passes through the atlantic probably will see alot more thunderstorm acitvity in the gulf

Speaking of which... The line of showers heading towards us from Austin is getting clobbered. No football for us says Lucy.

The good news is that that dry air has lowered dewpoints into the upper 60s with cloud cover. Doesn't feel bad for August in SETX.


Knock on wood: Long-range forecast has no 100°F in sight. Could it happen? No triple digit highs?

DoctorMu no 100 degrees in the long range? I would gladly take that! Hope it verifies

DoctorMu wrote: ↑Thu Aug 05, 2021 2:46 pm Speaking of which... The line of showers heading towards us from Austin is getting clobbered. No football for us says Lucy.

The good news is that that dry air has lowered dewpoints into the upper 60s with cloud cover. Doesn't feel bad for August in SETX.


Knock on wood: Long-range forecast has no 100°F in sight. Could it happen? No triple digit highs?

Just came in from around Austin...lots of rain there.

TEAL37 (Hurricane Hunters) is making a flight out into the Gulf from KEFD. I would suspect familiarization/training sortie, but an interesting observation none the less

txbear its just for training, their is nothing that bears flying into in the gulf in regards to a disturbance

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Thu Aug 05, 2021 2:28 pm Cromagnum yep nice swirl but its an ULL I believe, not much convection associated with it

Yeah I’m not expecting much to happen out there but I’ll keep an eye on it.

Meanwhile on the home front, picked up just shy of an inch yesterday and nearly 2 more today. Sprinklers set to stun for a bit.