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Andrew wrote: ↑Fri Jan 28, 2022 12:32 am It looks like next week we could see the coldest temperatures of this winter across the region. With that said, models have pulled back some on how far south the upper-level trough will dig. Instead of the cold air funneling straight south, it's tracking further east and remaining over the Central Plains. I'm not seeing much in the way of winter precip though. Most of the mid and upper-level energy ejects to the east and doesn't hang around like previous runs were showing. Either way, we are probably looking at a couple of mornings with lows below freezing and it's possible parts of the region could be looking at mid to low 20s.

Additionally, keep an eye on Monday. Both the GFS and ECMWF have indicated a mesoscale event could develop with the GFS showing 2-5 inches widespread. I wouldn't be surprised if we see a FF watch issued late this weekend as most of that rainfall is likely to fall within a couple of hours.

walsean1 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 28, 2022 2:07 am

Andrew wrote: ↑Fri Jan 28, 2022 12:32 am It looks like next week we could see the coldest temperatures of this winter across the region. With that said, models have pulled back some on how far south the upper-level trough will dig. Instead of the cold air funneling straight south, it's tracking further east and remaining over the Central Plains. I'm not seeing much in the way of winter precip though. Most of the mid and upper-level energy ejects to the east and doesn't hang around like previous runs were showing. Either way, we are probably looking at a couple of mornings with lows below freezing and it's possible parts of the region could be looking at mid to low 20s.

Additionally, keep an eye on Monday. Both the GFS and ECMWF have indicated a mesoscale event could develop with the GFS showing 2-5 inches widespread. I wouldn't be surprised if we see a FF watch issued late this weekend as most of that rainfall is likely to fall within a couple of hours.

This is why watching models that far out for Winter precipitation as good as they may look is difficult to forecast for our part of Texas. 2021 Winter Storm was the perfect setup for a warm climate region that we stay in, plus local Mets picked up on it a week out which was rare.

walsean1 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 28, 2022 9:25 am

walsean1 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 28, 2022 2:07 am

Andrew wrote: ↑Fri Jan 28, 2022 12:32 am It looks like next week we could see the coldest temperatures of this winter across the region. With that said, models have pulled back some on how far south the upper-level trough will dig. Instead of the cold air funneling straight south, it's tracking further east and remaining over the Central Plains. I'm not seeing much in the way of winter precip though. Most of the mid and upper-level energy ejects to the east and doesn't hang around like previous runs were showing. Either way, we are probably looking at a couple of mornings with lows below freezing and it's possible parts of the region could be looking at mid to low 20s.

Additionally, keep an eye on Monday. Both the GFS and ECMWF have indicated a mesoscale event could develop with the GFS showing 2-5 inches widespread. I wouldn't be surprised if we see a FF watch issued late this weekend as most of that rainfall is likely to fall within a couple of hours.

This is why watching models that far out for Winter precipitation as good as they may look is difficult to forecast for our part of Texas. 2021 Winter Storm was the perfect setup for a warm climate region that we stay in, plus local Mets picked up on it a week out which was rare.

The board has gone silent after Andrew dropped the models have backed off the winter precipitation bomb!!! We will be cold but nothing like last year. Trust me I would like a free day off from work like anyone else but let s be honest, we live in a warm climate region where events like last year are a once in a lifetime event.

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 28, 2022 11:18 am

walsean1 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 28, 2022 9:25 am

walsean1 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 28, 2022 2:07 am
This is why watching models that far out for Winter precipitation as good as they may look is difficult to forecast for our part of Texas. 2021 Winter Storm was the perfect setup for a warm climate region that we stay in, plus local Mets picked up on it a week out which was rare.

The board has gone silent after Andrew dropped the models have backed off the winter precipitation bomb!!! We will be cold but nothing like last year. Trust me I would like a free day off from work like anyone else but let s be honest, we live in a warm climate region where events like last year are a once in a lifetime event.

I wouldn’t say it was a once in a lifetime event. I’m not even sure it would crack the top 5 coldest events in southeast TX. Heck I’m pretty sure 1983 and 1989 both were colder and in 1930 Houston recorded it’s lowest temp ever of 5°F. And in between the 30’s and 80’s there were several really cold events here. And last year sure didn’t beat out 1899 and possibly not 1895 either. I would say something like last year would happen about 3 or 4 times in an average lifespan down here. Maybe once every 20-30 years.

walsean1 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 28, 2022 12:53 pm

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 28, 2022 11:18 am

walsean1 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 28, 2022 9:25 am
The board has gone silent after Andrew dropped the models have backed off the winter precipitation bomb!!! We will be cold but nothing like last year. Trust me I would like a free day off from work like anyone else but let s be honest, we live in a warm climate region where events like last year are a once in a lifetime event.

I wouldn’t say it was a once in a lifetime event. I’m not even sure it would crack the top 5 coldest events in southeast TX. Heck I’m pretty sure 1983 and 1989 both were colder and in 1930 Houston recorded it’s lowest temp ever of 5°F. And in between the 30’s and 80’s there were several really cold events here. And last year sure didn’t beat out 1899 and possibly not 1895 either. I would say something like last year would happen about 3 or 4 times in an average lifespan down here. Maybe once every 20-30 years.

I originally from Kansas City where winter storms are a regular occurrence and no the temperatures didn’t beat the records set back then but I never saw snow on the ground and streets stick around since I been in Houston. That almost never happens but I think since the climate has changed in recent years maybe this will happen more often

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 28, 2022 1:15 pm FWIW the 12z Euro does show a weak disturbance behind the main storm system moving in saturday that could bring some parts of SE Texas a chance for light snow

Kingwood36 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 28, 2022 2:57 pm I wouldn't get excited over anything till atleast Monday