Re: January 2023
Posted: Wed Jan 04, 2023 8:20 am
000
FXUS64 KHGX 041130
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
530 AM CST Wed Jan 4 2023
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 240 AM CST Wed Jan 4 2023
Weak surface high pressure that will be building across the state
today will eventually be edging off to the east on Thursday night.
Moisture levels will remain low (rain chances at zero) throughout
the period. For temperatures, inland highs for today/Thursday will
range from the mid to upper 60s north to the low to mid 70s south
(mid to upper 60s are expected at the beaches) while lows areawide
bottom out in the 40s/50s. Some periods of high clouds can be
expected throughout the period too. 42
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 240 AM CST Wed Jan 4 2023
The surface high pressure that has been providing us the clear,
dry, near seasonal temperature days will continue its eastward
slide on Friday. This will induce a more east to then
southeasterly flow into our region bringing warmer, wetter weather
Friday and on through the weekend. High temperatures on Friday
will be in the mid 70s for most of the region and overnight lows
Friday night will be about 10 degrees warmer than the previous
night with minimum temperatures near 60. The moist easterly flow
on Friday over cooler ocean waters will mean coastal fog will
again start to become an issue.
An upper level low will be moving across the Central Plains with
the associated cold front moving through SE Texas Saturday night into
Sunday. Precipitation chances begin as early as Saturday morning
thanks to increasing PWATs and daytime heating, but looking like
the highest chances of thunderstorms will be with the frontal
passage Saturday night into Sunday. Rain chances look to end
Sunday night as the cold front exits into the Mississippi River
Valley. I would categorize this cold front as a Pacific cold front
rather than a true Artic cold front as temperatures don`t cool
all that much after FROPA. WAA will be at its peak on Saturday
with high temperatures approaching 80 in the Houston Metro. Cloud
cover and rain will keep high temperatures on Sunday in the upper
60s. Low temperatures through the weekend will be in the upper 40s
to low 50s. High pressure builds in for Monday bringing clear
conditions and then a weak upper level shortwave will be moving
across Texas on Tuesday. Little or no precipitation should spawn
from this shortwave as the PWATs wouldn`t have recovered following
the weekend`s cold front by that point.
Fowler
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 530 AM CST Wed Jan 4 2023
For the 04/12Z TAFs, mainly light and variable winds early this morning
becoming mainly W at around 10 knots and occasionally gusty (around
20 knots) late this morning through late this afternoon. Back to mainly
light and variable winds this evening, overnight and on into Thursday
morning. Only have FEW250/SCT250 for the clouds today. 42
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 240 AM CST Wed Jan 4 2023
Light offshore flow will becoming northerly on Thursday and then
southeasterly on Friday as high pressure slides across the
region. No marine impacts are expected through Thursday, but the
southeasterly flow will bring increasing moisture on Friday. So,
there is a chance for sea fog developing as early as Friday
afternoon, and this threat will continue through Sunday morning.
An approaching cold front will begin to induce showers and
thunderstorms Saturday and continue until the cold front passes
Sunday evening. The southeasterly flow will increase to near 20
kts with gusts to 25kts Friday night through Saturday increasing
seas to 5 to 8 feet, so Small Craft Advisories may be needed
during this timeframe.
Fowler
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 69 41 69 48 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 71 46 71 49 / 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 68 54 65 57 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....Fowler
AVIATION...42
MARINE...Fowler
FXUS64 KHGX 041130
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
530 AM CST Wed Jan 4 2023
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 240 AM CST Wed Jan 4 2023
Weak surface high pressure that will be building across the state
today will eventually be edging off to the east on Thursday night.
Moisture levels will remain low (rain chances at zero) throughout
the period. For temperatures, inland highs for today/Thursday will
range from the mid to upper 60s north to the low to mid 70s south
(mid to upper 60s are expected at the beaches) while lows areawide
bottom out in the 40s/50s. Some periods of high clouds can be
expected throughout the period too. 42
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 240 AM CST Wed Jan 4 2023
The surface high pressure that has been providing us the clear,
dry, near seasonal temperature days will continue its eastward
slide on Friday. This will induce a more east to then
southeasterly flow into our region bringing warmer, wetter weather
Friday and on through the weekend. High temperatures on Friday
will be in the mid 70s for most of the region and overnight lows
Friday night will be about 10 degrees warmer than the previous
night with minimum temperatures near 60. The moist easterly flow
on Friday over cooler ocean waters will mean coastal fog will
again start to become an issue.
An upper level low will be moving across the Central Plains with
the associated cold front moving through SE Texas Saturday night into
Sunday. Precipitation chances begin as early as Saturday morning
thanks to increasing PWATs and daytime heating, but looking like
the highest chances of thunderstorms will be with the frontal
passage Saturday night into Sunday. Rain chances look to end
Sunday night as the cold front exits into the Mississippi River
Valley. I would categorize this cold front as a Pacific cold front
rather than a true Artic cold front as temperatures don`t cool
all that much after FROPA. WAA will be at its peak on Saturday
with high temperatures approaching 80 in the Houston Metro. Cloud
cover and rain will keep high temperatures on Sunday in the upper
60s. Low temperatures through the weekend will be in the upper 40s
to low 50s. High pressure builds in for Monday bringing clear
conditions and then a weak upper level shortwave will be moving
across Texas on Tuesday. Little or no precipitation should spawn
from this shortwave as the PWATs wouldn`t have recovered following
the weekend`s cold front by that point.
Fowler
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 530 AM CST Wed Jan 4 2023
For the 04/12Z TAFs, mainly light and variable winds early this morning
becoming mainly W at around 10 knots and occasionally gusty (around
20 knots) late this morning through late this afternoon. Back to mainly
light and variable winds this evening, overnight and on into Thursday
morning. Only have FEW250/SCT250 for the clouds today. 42
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 240 AM CST Wed Jan 4 2023
Light offshore flow will becoming northerly on Thursday and then
southeasterly on Friday as high pressure slides across the
region. No marine impacts are expected through Thursday, but the
southeasterly flow will bring increasing moisture on Friday. So,
there is a chance for sea fog developing as early as Friday
afternoon, and this threat will continue through Sunday morning.
An approaching cold front will begin to induce showers and
thunderstorms Saturday and continue until the cold front passes
Sunday evening. The southeasterly flow will increase to near 20
kts with gusts to 25kts Friday night through Saturday increasing
seas to 5 to 8 feet, so Small Craft Advisories may be needed
during this timeframe.
Fowler
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 69 41 69 48 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 71 46 71 49 / 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 68 54 65 57 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....Fowler
AVIATION...42
MARINE...Fowler