Wx Infinity Forums

don wrote: ↑Mon Jan 01, 2024 2:51 pm The pattern the models are showing over the first half of the month looks very active. I'm personally more concerned with flooding and severe weather than I am of any winter storm down here.( I'm specifically watching the storm system around the 8th as models are showing an environment favorable for tornadoes.)

The storm track looks to stay too far north and progressive for wintry precip down here alone with marginal at best temps. This is why I sometimes say a SE ridge can be a good thing for us. As it forces the trough to dig further south and slow down. We just don't want the SE ridge to be too strong. Just don't expect any wintry precip in the next 2 weeks. Doesn't mean things wont change during the 2nd half of the month though or into February.

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 01, 2024 3:02 pm That storm track needs to come further south, I do see the SE ridge becoming prevalent in the ensembles , fingers crossed for more surprises, we dont need flooding and severe weather

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 01, 2024 3:08 pm CPV17 rain is fine, I dont mind a couple of inches, but my disdain for heavy rainfall started with harvey, I dont hate rain, I just dont like the flooding threat that always comes with these events

Cromagnum wrote: ↑Mon Jan 01, 2024 3:11 pm Hoping Washington destroys Texas later, but that's gonna be a late finish on a night I need to readjust my clock from staying up late so I can get back to work routine hours.

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 01, 2024 2:56 pm Not the optimistic message i was hoping to hear with this pattern

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 01, 2024 3:14 pmI live out in the country away from concrete. I had 25” from Harvey here and still wasn’t even close to flooding. I’m sure if it would’ve came all at once instead of over a 3-4 day period then it would’ve been a different story though. I’d honestly love a good 10-15” of rain over one or two days though.

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 01, 2024 3:05 pmYeah, I love rain and storms! If we’re not gonna have wintry weather then at least let us have rain and storms!

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 01, 2024 2:56 pm Not the optimistic message i was hoping to hear with this pattern

Medium-range guidance shows good agreement that another upper trough
will amplify and strengthen around Day 7/Sunday into Day 8/Monday
across the western states and Southwest. As this system ejects over
the southern Plains early next week, inland/northward advance of
low-level moisture should occur across parts of TX and the lower MS
Valley as a surface low quickly deepens across these regions. There
are still some timing differences in the progression of this
pronounced upper trough/low and related surface features. Still,
both forecast instability and deep-layer shear suggest a severe
threat may materialize over parts of central/eastern TX into the
lower MS Valley Monday into Monday night. This area of interest will
be closely monitored for increasing severe potential and
possible/eventual introduction of a 15% severe area pending greater
predictability.

MontgomeryCoWx wrote: ↑Mon Jan 01, 2024 4:46 pm

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 01, 2024 2:56 pm Not the optimistic message i was hoping to hear with this pattern

We were never getting winter weather before 1/18-/1/20 timeframe. I’m not sure what you were expecting but this pattern is awesome in terms of setting the stage for later.

SETX will have it shots in week 3-7 from right now.

user:null wrote: ↑Mon Jan 01, 2024 4:42 pm

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 01, 2024 3:05 pmYeah, I love rain and storms! If we’re not gonna have wintry weather then at least let us have rain and storms!

I would like to have honest to goodness summer washouts again — the summers of the aughts were very good with those across the Houston area, you can see notable contrast compared with 2010s and especially 2022/2023.

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 01, 2024 5:09 pm Im fine with rain, but keep that severe stuff far away from here, i never like seeing the cpc mentioning potential that early