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I don't see this as a northern Gulf coast threat (Houston eastward). Looks like lower coast is most likely, with the possibility it could track as far north as Victoria. If we're very lucky we could get some rain this far north, but I'm not holding my breath. Development chances may be above 50% now.

i think this storm will be saying hola to northern mexico. It looks like it is getting its act together right now. This one should be fun to track though because the ridge will be weakening as its making landfall so a couple exciting northward jogs aren't out of the question

90L is quite small and if conditions are right over Gulf of Mexico, it could rapidly intensify, considering its size. The Bay of Campeche is very favorable for rapid intensification. Yes, I know large hurricanes too can undergo rapid intensification, but it is the smaller ones that do. It is too early to tell at this point and if it becomes Tropical Depression #4, than we would have a better idea. Never say never.

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including KHOU. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

wxman57 wrote:I don't see this as a northern Gulf coast threat (Houston eastward). Looks like lower coast is most likely, with the possibility it could track as far north as Victoria. If we're very lucky we could get some rain this far north, but I'm not holding my breath. Development chances may be above 50% now.

We could use the rain and a good one. The Cockroach Ridge needs to go.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE JUL 26 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAVE BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED A
COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF WESTERN CUBA. HOWEVER...THE
SYSTEM DOES NOT HAVE A CLOSED CIRCULATION AT THIS TIME. ADDITIONAL
SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT NEAR 15 MPH. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

Up to 30%.

The HWRF and GFDL 12Z runs are out. While those Hurricane models should only be taken with a grain of salt, the HWRF spins up a 109kt Hurricane into S TX just S of Corpus. The GFDL is much weak and really shows nothing more than a disturbance heading to the Upper TX Coast. We will see

Where is Paul at? Its hurricane season - haven't seen him over here at KHOU much.

Paul:


Storm2K as the Rock...LOL

18Z...

I like the model trends. i am hoping we can get some real rainfall out of this

From Air Force Met ( A Pro Met) at S2K:

So…IMO…landfall probably north of the Rio Grande…b/w Corpus and Matagorda. But as with anything…a lot depends on when it gets a LLC. Given the warm waters (higher than normal TCHP) unusually close to the coast, pretty moist environment and favorable FORECASTED (note the concern) upper level environment, I see no reason why we shouldn’t see a hurricane IF (BIG OLD IF) it can get going in the first place.

In other words: Once it GETS going…it SHOULD go.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... start=1000

Can someone remind me of the times that new models run? I know there is an 8AM, 2PM...and what else? Thanks!

Still a ways to go, but making progress, organization wise...

jgreak wrote:Can someone remind me of the times that new models run? I know there is an 8AM, 2PM...and what else? Thanks!

Every 6 hours.

Up to 40%


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

800 PM EDT TUE JUL 26 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA JUST TO THE SOUTH OF EXTREME WESTERN CUBA
CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. HOWEVER...SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM DOES NOT HAVE A CLOSED
CIRCULATION AT THIS TIME. SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

Double that 40% and it's closer to reality.

If I were a betting man, I 'd say it's clearly greater than 50%.

I'm not surprised the models are swinging to the right a bit...but I didn't expect it quite so soon.

wxman57 wrote:Double that 40% and it's closer to reality.

So wxman57 is saying 80%?

ticka1 wrote:

wxman57 wrote:Double that 40% and it's closer to reality.

So wxman57 is saying 80%?

No, 79.5%