December: New Years Eve Outlook

[redneckweather]

Looks like a nasty wet day tomorrow so no Golf. It doesn't look like much in the way of severe weather except maybe an isolated severe storm here and there.

Did the models back off on the arctic aircoming down right before the New Year? It looks like the chatter has stopped on that.

[skidog40]

Austin you should be about 68 degrees at midnight, front should arrive Sunday. Lol

[Paul Robison]

Optimism remains at 3/8th cup full for CLL, but looking at the models, cap probably won't break here, lowering the HOU metro area for FUNderstorms of any significance to 3/16th from one quarter.
Wasted low level shear due to the cap. Not all bleak, may have some non-surface based storms, GFS continue to show healthy instability above the CAP.

Yes, there is a difference between thunderstorms and FUNderstorms, but after 4 years of no weather locally of any significance, a couple of rumbles of thunder better than nothing. Fly in that ointment, GFS forecast precip is a buzzkill South of I-10 OTOH, not all gloom, 1Z HRRR does suggest mid morning thunder, just nothing too exciting. But does suggest near an inch of rain IMBY by 10 am tomorrow.

The good news, we can follow severe in NE Texas over to where SPC has a MOD RISK for tomorrow, or enjoy monitoring the somewhat unexpected magnitude of the ice storm in Oklahoma. Lets face it, SETX just doesn't get much interesting weather, and a well rounded person will follow snow storms in New England, severe in the Plains and tropical cyclones worldwide, or he or she would usually have nothing to look forward to. Two hurricane strength tropical cyclones in the Southern hemisphere right now, as a matter of fact.

Are you sure?

[Kludge]

We take pride here in letting everyone "express" their opinion and we really try not to get involved, but at the same time there are many people who come to this site looking for reliable information. As a result when things get over hyped to an extreme case we do sometimes have to take action to assure the quality of the board.

Thank you.

I second that.

Anyone can read the posts. And anyone can post. But when the board becomes burdened with a poster's messages that consistently lean hype and/or fanaticism, the board begins to decay, and those with real professional expertise to share head to the exits.

When that happens, all that's left is a banter of tin hats and black helicopter (some with the governor on board) folks.

So double-thanks, Admins and Mods... for running a tidy ship.

[Paul Robison]

The future looks a little brighter, I suppose. Here are our high wind probabilies.



It's good to be back in the slight risk again, IMHO. They had us in moderate risk earlier.

[Kludge]

Optimism remains at 3/8th cup full for CLL, but looking at the models, cap probably won't break here, lowering the HOU metro area for FUNderstorms of any significance to 3/16th from one quarter.
Wasted low level shear due to the cap. Not all bleak, may have some non-surface based storms, GFS continue to show healthy instability above the CAP.

Are you sure?

Dude...I wouldn't wait up for an answer to that. After you dissed him for the word FUNderstorm, I'm pretty sure he put your posts on his 'ignore' list.

Back to the topic: My guess would be that the cap holds firm until noon on Saturday, but then breaks down north of a Brenham to Lufkin line. I'll bet some impressive cells will form in this area.

[Paul Robison]

Optimism remains at 3/8th cup full for CLL, but looking at the models, cap probably won't break here, lowering the HOU metro area for FUNderstorms of any significance to 3/16th from one quarter.
Wasted low level shear due to the cap. Not all bleak, may have some non-surface based storms, GFS continue to show healthy instability above the CAP.

Are you sure?

Dude...I wouldn't wait up for an answer to that. After you dissed him for the word FUNderstorm, I'm pretty sure he put your posts on his 'ignore' list.

Back to the topic: My guess would be that the cap holds firm until noon on Saturday, but then breaks down north of a Brenham to Lufkin line. I'll bet some impressive cells will form in this area.

Amen!

[unome]

I was kind of hoping thunderstorms would have started by now, don't want severe, just rain :(

[srainhoutx]

The cold front is currently passing through the Austin Area on down to Giddings and surface analysis does suggest a surface low near Del Rio. College Station is S of the front, so would expect as seen via radar trends continuing storm development, some possibly severe to begin to ramp up near daybreak. Further S, the capping inversion still looks stout. Also noted is a very dry layer aloft which should inhibit thunderstorm development or lack of ability for towering cumulous cloud development early this morning. There is a brief 3-4 hour window as storms begin to line up or go linear that some severe storm development may be possible closer to Houston and Galveston, but that remains to be seen. The severe threat should end by early afternoon across all but extreme SE/E Texas. Further E into Louisiana where the Moderate Risk is currently outlined, a much tougher day weather wise may be ahead where capping issues will be far less. Areas from just E of Lake Charles to Baton Rogue and further N and E appear to be in the bulls eye for rotating super cell structure and the main focus of damaging wind and tornadoes. The upper low is shearing out over New Mexico at this time, but a negative tilted trough axis if slowly developing. Further N in the cold sector across Oklahoma and Missouri, a full blown ice storm is underway and that icy mess extends NE into the Chicago area.

There still remains a risk of a light freeze early Monday and Tuesday across our Region. Christmas Day looks rather uncertain as a short wave drops SE in the NW flow aloft and a E to SE flow of the Gulf begins and upglide precip may develop.

Looking a bit further out beyond Christmas Day, it appears we will be in a rather active and 'colder' pattern with bouts of rain and possibly wintry weather further N across our Region as the pattern continues to develop upper air disturbances to our W and the sub tropical jet remains rather noisy. There are growing indications that much colder air will push S into the Inter Mountain West and The Great Plains towards the last week of December, but that is too far out to know with any certainty what the New Years Eve/New Years Day forecast may hold as we ring in 2014.

[wxman57]

I can't tell who is saying what on this forum with the quote function not working. I suggest that if you respond to someone that you at least highlight the quoted text and put it in italics. It would also help to highlight it again and change the font color.

I'm told this will be fixed in the near future.

[Kludge]

I didn't see any potential flash flood watches noted for this system, but we've already had 1.12", most of that coming between 4:30 and 6. And we're just now getting back on a heavy train. Understanding that this is the isn't even the main event (the one scheduled for later today), and that not a drop is soaking in anymore, I'm thinking this could cause a few high water issues.

[srainhoutx]

12212013 mcd2096.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2096
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0757 AM CST SAT DEC 21 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF E TX...WRN/NRN LA...AND SRN AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 211357Z - 211500Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...TORNADO WATCH ISSUANCE MAY BE REQUIRED BY 15-17Z FOR PARTS
OF EAST TX INTO WRN/NRN LA AND SRN AR.

DISCUSSION...LIGHTNING TRENDS THROUGH 1330Z SHOWED TSTMS CONTINUING
TO DEVELOP FROM NERN TX /NEAR THE COLD FRONT/ AND SSWWD ALONG A
PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE ZONE TO 45 NNE KVCT. THIS CONVECTIVE
EVOLUTION IS LIKELY OCCURRING AS STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS/DEEP LAYER
ASCENT IS BEGINNING TO SPREAD NEWD FROM CENTRAL TX. ENVIRONMENT
ALONG AND E OF THE FRONT/PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE ZONE IS SUFFICIENTLY
SHEARED TO RESULT IN ORGANIZED STORMS...GIVEN 50-60 KT SLY LLJ.
HOWEVER...THE STRONGER ASCENT TO SUPPORT STORMS BECOMING ROOTED IN
THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS WEST OF THE SURFACE FRONT. AS THIS
ASCENT MAKES NEWD ADVANCEMENT...SUSTENANCE OF UPDRAFTS IS EXPECTED
TO BECOME GREATER ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 15-17Z.

..PETERS/CORFIDI.. 12/21/2013


ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...LCH...SHV...HGX...

[Kludge]

In a previous message,

"I can't tell who is saying what on this forum with the quote function not working. I suggest that if you respond to someone that you at least highlight the quoted text and put it in italics. It would also help to highlight it again and change the font color. I'm told this will be fixed in the near future."

My reply to that is : That's good news...thanks for the update.

[srainhoutx]

Starting to hear some thunder here in NW Harris County. It looks like a line is developing ahead of the main surface low and the cold front while the upper air system begins to enter the Texas Panhandle and the trough axis begins to trend toward that negative tilt.

[srainhoutx]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
840 AM CST SAT DEC 21 2013

TXZ163-164-176-177-198-199-211515-
TRINITY TX-WALKER TX-MADISON TX-GRIMES TX-HOUSTON TX-MONTGOMERY TX-
840 AM CST SAT DEC 21 2013

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

AT 839 AM CST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 12
MILES WEST OF HUNTSVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
NORTHWESTERN HUNTSVILLE...CROCKETT...LOVELADY...PENNINGTON AND CRABBS
PRAIRIE.

[txsnowmaker]

12212013 mcd2096.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2096
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0757 AM CST SAT DEC 21 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF E TX...WRN/NRN LA...AND SRN AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 211357Z - 211500Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...TORNADO WATCH ISSUANCE MAY BE REQUIRED BY 15-17Z FOR PARTS
OF EAST TX INTO WRN/NRN LA AND SRN AR.

DISCUSSION...LIGHTNING TRENDS THROUGH 1330Z SHOWED TSTMS CONTINUING
TO DEVELOP FROM NERN TX /NEAR THE COLD FRONT/ AND SSWWD ALONG A
PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE ZONE TO 45 NNE KVCT. THIS CONVECTIVE
EVOLUTION IS LIKELY OCCURRING AS STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS/DEEP LAYER
ASCENT IS BEGINNING TO SPREAD NEWD FROM CENTRAL TX. ENVIRONMENT
ALONG AND E OF THE FRONT/PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE ZONE IS SUFFICIENTLY
SHEARED TO RESULT IN ORGANIZED STORMS...GIVEN 50-60 KT SLY LLJ.
HOWEVER...THE STRONGER ASCENT TO SUPPORT STORMS BECOMING ROOTED IN
THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS WEST OF THE SURFACE FRONT. AS THIS
ASCENT MAKES NEWD ADVANCEMENT...SUSTENANCE OF UPDRAFTS IS EXPECTED
TO BECOME GREATER ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 15-17Z.

..PETERS/CORFIDI.. 12/21/2013


ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...LCH...SHV...HGX...

Before someone goes off with predictions of sheer and utter destruction, maybe one of the mets/mods can provide some perspective on the potential for a tornado watch.

[srainhoutx]

NWS Lake Charles to do a special 18Z sounding for the severe weather event.

[unome]

went back to sleep & the thunder woke me up - it's been a while, love that music :)

[srainhoutx]

Before someone goes off with predictions of sheer and utter destruction, maybe one of the mets/mods can provide some perspective on the potential for a tornado watch.

The cap is beginning to erode across SE Texas as we see the development of these fast moving storms. None have reached severe limits yet, but as the morning wears on, chances are increasing mainly N and E of Metro Houston. Across Central and NE Louisiana the chances for severe storms and rotating super cells may be enhanced as the day wears on. If a Watch is going to be issued, straight line damaging winds and hail and a isolated quick tornado or two may be possible where the storms organize would be the primary threat.

[txsnowmaker]

Before someone goes off with predictions of sheer and utter destruction, maybe one of the mets/mods can provide some perspective on the potential for a tornado watch.

The cap is beginning to erode across SE Texas as we see the development of these fast moving storms. None have reached severe limits yet, but as the morning wears on, chances are increasing mainly N and E of Metro Houston. Across Central and NE Louisiana the chances for severe storms and rotating super cells may be enhanced as the day wears on. If a Watch is going to be issued, straight line damaging winds and hail and a isolated quick tornado or two may be possible where the storms organize would be the primary threat.

Thanks for the context, srain. Your contributions and those of this forum's other mods/mets are greatly appreciated.