October 2015 - Severe Storms/Moderate Risk Excessive Rainfal

Fri Oct 30, 2015 7:47 am

CONUS view http://wdssii.nssl.noaa.gov/web/wdss2/p ... loop.shtml

almost looked like a couple lines coming together like a zipper http://wdssii.nssl.noaa.gov/web/wdss2/p ... loop.shtml

Fri Oct 30, 2015 7:50 am

why are there no reports posted ?

here http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/reports/

and here http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/today.html

but there are here https://nwschat.weather.gov/lsr/#/20151 ... 01700/0100

Fri Oct 30, 2015 7:51 am

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1897
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0749 AM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SCNTRL TX

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 523...

VALID 301249Z - 301415Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 523 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THREAT FOR A FEW TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WIND WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE MORNING ACROSS SCNTRL TX.

DISCUSSION...EARLY THIS MORNING A CLUSTER OF STORMS WITH A FEW
EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS CONTINUES THROUGH SCNTRL TX INCLUDING THE SAN
ANTONIO AND NEW BRAUNFELS VICINITY. THE GREATEST TORNADO THREAT AND
STRONGEST STORMS EXIST WHERE THE 50 KT LLJ INTERSECTS THE WARM FRONT
OVER SCNTRL TX RESULTING IN LARGEST 0-1 KM HODOGRAPHS...AND A WELL
ORGANIZED...POSSIBLY TORNADIC SUPERCELL IS IN PROGRESS JUST EAST OF
NEW BRAUNFELS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING ENEWD THROUGH
THE MORNING ALONG THE SLOWLY NWD-ADVANCING WARM FRONT WHERE
LOW-LEVEL MESOCYLONES AND A FEW TORNADOES REMAIN POSSIBLE.

..DIAL.. 10/30/2015

ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...

Fri Oct 30, 2015 7:57 am

Northern Guadalupe Fire Departments have been dispatched for multiple structures collapsed.

Fri Oct 30, 2015 7:59 am

Reports of damage to San Marcos High School. Also reports of a main LCRA power transmission line down. SPC Continues Slight Risk of Severe Storms.

Fri Oct 30, 2015 8:03 am

Hays County OEM reports NO damage to San Marcos High School

Fri Oct 30, 2015 8:22 am

srainhoutx wrote:Hays County OEM reports NO damage to San Marcos High School

weird, damage was reported on radio, too.

Fri Oct 30, 2015 8:22 am

Briefing from Jeff on the Central Texas Flooding...

Rainfall this morning has averaged 4-6 inches from N of San Antonio to SW of Austin or across much of central and western Hays County and the Blanco River and Comal River watersheds.

The Blanco River at Wimberley, TX has begun a very rapid rise. The Blanco River is expected to rise 11ft in the next hour.

A major flash flood is likely on the Comal River and the Guadalupe River at New Bransfels. The Comal River is expected to rise 23ft in the next few hours…this is a very dangerous flash flood situation.

River Flood Forecasts:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/

A Tornado outbreak is also ongoing with numerous confirmed tornadoes producing damage between San Antonio and Austin.

Fri Oct 30, 2015 8:26 am

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
821 AM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN COMAL COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL TRAVIS COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
NORTHWESTERN CALDWELL COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
HAYS COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 915 AM CDT

* AT 821 AM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER SAN
MARCOS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
AUSTIN...SAN MARCOS...LOCKHART...WIMBERLEY...CANYON LAKE DAM...
TANGLEWOOD FOREST...KYLE...BUDA...CANYON LAKE...WOODCREEK...
MARTINDALE...UHLAND...MUSTANG RIDGE...NIEDERWALD...BEAR CREEK...
DRIFTWOOD...SHADY HOLLOW...ONION CREEK...SUNSET VALLEY AND MOUNTAIN
CITY.

Fri Oct 30, 2015 8:49 am

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
843 AM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015

...FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR MUCH OF COMAL COUNTY...WESTERN PARTS
OF HAYS COUNTY AND FAR NORTHWEST BEXAR COUNTY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
COMAL COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
NORTHWESTERN BEXAR COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
WESTERN HAYS COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 130 PM CDT

* AT 835 AM CDT...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED A BRIDGE OVER
CYPRESS CREEK THAT MAY BE COMPROMISED...WITH EVACUATIONS TAKING
PLACE IN THE WIMBERLEY AREA. THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX PRODUCING HEAVY
RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN BEXAR COUNTY...NEARLY ALL OF COMAL
COUNTY...AND THE WESTERN HALF OF HAYS COUNTY. SEVERAL GAUGE
REPORTS OVER 6 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE BEEN RECEIVED OVER THE WARNED
AREA...AND RADAR ESTIMATES SUGGEST THAT AS MUCH AS 10 INCHES MAY
HAVE FALLEN OVER A FEW LOCATIONS.

THIS IS A FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR MUCH OF COMAL COUNTY...WESTERN
PARTS OF HAYS COUNTY AND FAR NORTHWEST BEXAR COUNTY. PEOPLE IN
AND NEAR THE CIBOLO CREEK...COMAL RIVER...GUADALUPE RIVER NEAR
CANYON LAKE...AND THE BLANCO RIVER AS WELL AS THEIR TRIBUTARIES
SHOULD SEEK HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
NEW BRAUNFELS...WIMBERLEY...DRIPPING SPRINGS...CANYON LAKE DAM...
FAIR OAKS RANCH...CANYON LAKE...BULVERDE...SHAVANO PARK...
WOODCREEK...SPRING BRANCH...HENLY...LEON SPRINGS...CROSS
MOUNTAIN...TIMBERWOOD PARK...FISCHER...THE DOMINION...MOUNT
GAINOR...SATTLER...ANHALT AND GRUENE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND NOW. THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE
THREATENING SITUATION. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL UNLESS YOU ARE
FLEEING AN AREA SUBJECT TO FLOODING OR UNDER AN EVACUATION ORDER.

Fri Oct 30, 2015 8:50 am

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
848 AM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTH CENTRAL TRAVIS COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
NORTHWESTERN CALDWELL COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
EAST CENTRAL HAYS COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 915 AM CDT

* AT 847 AM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER MUSTANG RIDGE...OR 9 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
TANGLEWOOD FOREST...MOVING NORTH AT 25 MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
AUSTIN AND BUDA AROUND 855 AM CDT.
ONION CREEK AROUND 905 AM CDT.
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INT AP...TANGLEWOOD FOREST AND SHADY HOLLOW AROUND
910 AM CDT.
WEST LAKE HILLS AND ROLLINGWOOD AROUND 915 AM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE DEL
VALLE...MAHA...PILOT KNOB...LOST CREEK...SUNSET VALLEY...MENDOZA...
CREEDMOOR...MANCHACA AND SAN LEANNA.

Fri Oct 30, 2015 8:50 am

Wimberley...

Fri Oct 30, 2015 8:53 am

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
852 AM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN BASTROP COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
WILLIAMSON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
TRAVIS COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
NORTHEASTERN GUADALUPE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
WESTERN CALDWELL COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
CENTRAL HAYS COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 115 PM CDT

* AT 851 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. UP TO 4
INCHES OF RAIN HAVE ALREADY FALLEN OVER EASTERN HAYS AND WESTERN
TRAVIS COUNTIES. FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SHORTLY.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
AUSTIN...ROUND ROCK...CEDAR PARK...GEORGETOWN...PFLUGERVILLE...SAN
MARCOS...TAYLOR...LOCKHART...ELGIN...WIMBERLEY...GRANGER...
WINDEMERE...TANGLEWOOD FOREST...ANDERSON MILL...SERENADA...AUSTIN
BERGSTROM INT AP...KYLE...LEANDER...HUTTO AND LAKEWAY.

Fri Oct 30, 2015 9:00 am

would hate to be driving on I-35 right now

http://drivetexas.org/#/8/30.171/-97.627

http://its.txdot.gov/ITS_WEB/FrontEnd/d ... exas&t=map

http://wdssii.nssl.noaa.gov/web/wdss2/p ... loop.shtml

Fri Oct 30, 2015 9:07 am

MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0621
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
953 AM EDT FRI OCT 30 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN/SOUTH-CENTRAL TX

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY

VALID 301352Z - 301952Z

SUMMARY...TWO AREAS OF CONCERN ACROSS SOUTHERNMOST TX AND
SOUTH-CENTRAL TX COULD SEE HOURLY RAIN RATES UP TO 4" AND LOCAL
AMOUNTS IN THE 4-8" RANGE. FLASH FLOODING IS LIKELY ACROSS A
SATURATING REGION.

DISCUSSION...THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPLEX. AT THE SURFACE, THE
APPARENT POLAR FRONT IS BEING REINFORCED BY A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TX, WITH A COASTAL FRONT NOTED CLOSER TO THE
UPPER TX COAST/OFFSHORE THE LA COAST. IN SOUTHERNMOST TX, A WEAK
DEW POINT GRADIENT/CONVERGENCE ZONE IS STARTING TO DRIVE NEW
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF BROWNSVILLE.
ALOFT, THE POLAR AND SUBTROPICAL JETS MERGE ACROSS NORTHERN
MEXICO, DOWNSTREAM OF AN ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE COMPLEX IN SOUTHWEST
MEXICO WHICH IS CONTRIBUTING MOISTURE ALOFT. INFLOW AT 850 HPA IS
CONVERGENT ALONG A NORTH-SOUTH AXIS IN EAST-CENTRAL TX, WITH A
MAGNITUDE OF 30-60 KTS PER VAD WIND PROFILES. MUCAPE IN THE
REGION IS 1000-3000 J/KG, WHICH WAS VERIFIED BY THE 12Z
BROWNSVILLE TX SOUNDING. THE LOW-LEVEL INFLOW IS UP TO 30% HIGHER
THAN THE MEAN 850-400 HPA WIND, WHICH HAS LED TO PRECIPITATION
EFFICIENCY. LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO 10" HAVE BEEN NOTED ON DUAL POL
IMAGERY TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF NEW BRAUNFELS TX.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.7-2.4" INHABIT THE REGION, WHICH IS
NEAR THREE SIGMAS ABOVE THE MEAN FOR THE END OF OCTOBER.

ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TX, THE NON-SPCWRF GUIDANCE HAS HAD A GOOD
HANDLE ON LOCATION AND MAGNITUDE OF RAINFALL. THESE PIECES OF
GUIDANCE ADVERTISE LOCAL AMOUNTS IN THE 4-8" RANGE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS, WHICH COULD FALL QUICKLY. BACKBUILDING AND CELL
TRAINING ARE BOTH CONSIDERED THE MAIN RISKS FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL. HOURLY RAIN RATES UP TO 4" HAS BEEN OBSERVED VIA DUAL
POL ESTIMATES NEAR SAN ANTONIO/AUSTIN TX. THE 06Z SSEO
NEIGHBORHOOD PROBABILITIES INDICATE A LULL IN HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE IN THE 15-18Z PERIOD, PERHAPS DISRUPTED BY THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IN SOUTHERNMOST TX AND THE DEPARTING OF THE SHORTWAVE
MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN TX, BEFORE RAMPING UP AGAIN AS INSTABILITY
INCREASES DUE TO ADVECTION AND INSOLATION AND A NEW SHORTWAVE
APPROACHING FROM NORTH-CENTRAL MEXICO. IN SOUTHERNMOST TX, A
COMPROMISE OF THE 12Z HRRR AND 00Z NAM CONEST APPEARS IDEAL, WHICH
INDICATE LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 3-7" ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE WEAK
CONVERGENCE ZONE/DEW POINT GRADIENT. THE MAGNITUDE OF RAIN
EXPECTED SHOULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING, PARTICULARLY WITHIN URBAN
CENTERS.

ROTH

ATTN...WFO...BRO...CRP...EWX...FWD...HGX...

Fri Oct 30, 2015 9:24 am

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
917 AM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN TRAVIS COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 945 AM CDT

* AT 917 AM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTERNATIONAL
AIRPORT...MOVING NORTH AT 25 MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
AUSTIN...AUSTIN BERGSTROM INT AP...WEBBERVILLE...DEL VALLE AND
PILOT KNOB.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS...IN A
MOBILE HOME...OR IN A VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL
SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

Fri Oct 30, 2015 9:32 am

It's not often the 24 hr forecast can be off this much. yes, rain & severe weather was predicted today, but I think it was for later.

Fri Oct 30, 2015 9:34 am

Flash Flood Update from NWS San Antonio/Austin

Dangerous Flood situation ongoing.

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 115 PM CDT FOR
NORTHWESTERN BASTROP...WILLIAMSON...TRAVIS...NORTHEASTERN
GUADALUPE...WESTERN CALDWELL AND CENTRAL HAYS COUNTIES...

AT 922 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX
PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES OF 4 TO 5 INCHES PER HOUR ACROSS
PARTS OF THE WARNED AREA...WHICH INCLUDES MUCH OF THE AUSTIN METRO
AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE LIKELY FALLEN
OVER MUCH OF THE BLANCO AND ONION CREEK BASINS. SIGNIFICANT STREAM
RISES ARE EXPECTED OVER THESE BASINS...AND HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES TO
FALL OVER THESE AREAS. NORTHERN TRAVIS AND WILLIAMSON COUNTIES
SHOULD HAVE RECEIVED AROUND 2 TO 3 INCHES....AND AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO
2 INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 11 AM CDT.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
AUSTIN...ROUND ROCK...CEDAR PARK...GEORGETOWN...PFLUGERVILLE...SAN
MARCOS...TAYLOR...LOCKHART...ELGIN...WIMBERLEY...GRANGER...
WINDEMERE...TANGLEWOOD FOREST...ANDERSON MILL...SERENADA...AUSTIN
BERGSTROM INT AP...KYLE...LEANDER...HUTTO AND LAKEWAY.

Also from Caldwell County Emergency Mgmt:
930AM: Emergency Evacuations ordered for all persons in low lying areas along the San Marcos River in Caldwell County to Highway 80

Fri Oct 30, 2015 9:43 am

http://www.weather.com/tv/the-weather-c ... ive-tv-now

http://xfinitytv.comcast.net/live/netwo ... herchannel

Fri Oct 30, 2015 9:51 am

The updated 12Z HRRR (High Resolution Rapid Refresh) guidance continues to suggest the potential of super cells developing near the San Antonio/Austin area this evening moving generally N and E.

October 2015 - Severe Storms/Moderate Risk Excessive Rainfal

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