SEPTEMBER 2018 - Very Wet Month Wrap Up

[Texaspirate11]

If the cold front comes doesnt that end our cane season?

[Katdaddy]

One more dry mostly sunny hot SE TX day before a transition to a wet humid weekend begins tomorrow. Locally heavy rains will be possible Friday through Sunday.

[DoctorMu]

It's already humid (dew point = 75°)...but just not as hot and rainier this weekend.

So, just enjoying the green before brown patch season.

[tireman4]

HGX Summer

[Cromagnum]

It's already humid (dew point = 75°)...but just not as hot and rainier this weekend.

So, just enjoying the green before brown patch season.

Getting my fungicide application down today for just that reason.

[tireman4]

And Steve called this awhile back...our long rang pro met...

[Texaspirate11]

And Steve called this awhile back...our long rang pro met...

Bye cane season

[srainhoutx]

After a rather dry spell, rain returns in earnest on Friday as deep tropical moisture and a very slow moving frontal boundary hangs up across Central Texas this weekend into early next week. Rain chances increase further next Wednesday into Thursday as our first Fall Cold Front arrives next Thursday ushering in modified Canadian Air and much lower dew points. There are still questions following that front concerning clearing out, or does over running rainfall continue into the last weekend in September? We'll monitor the extended range forecast, but it does appear the pattern is changing and these Fall Fronts will increase in frequency as October begins.

[srainhoutx]

Wednesday evening briefing from Jeff:

After a brief break in the wet weather…rains will return starting as early as Thursday…but more likely Friday into next week.

There is some potential for the “first” true cold front of the fall season to arrive middle to late next week

Moisture from ex-Isaac is moving into the southern Gulf of Mexico and will turn NNW and NW and move into TX late on Thursday and Friday. Will likely see isolated to scattered showers on Thursday become numerous on Friday as PWS climb to 1.9-2.2 inches. A weak frontal boundary will move into N and C TX over the weekend with the front expected to reach a Dallas to San Antonio line late Saturday. Numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop along and ahead of this boundary as jet stream disturbances move across the region and act on the very moist air mass in place. Expect numerous showers and thunderstorms Saturday. Sunday is more unclear as outflow boundaries from C TX convection may move into the area and add additional focus or even the stalling weak frontal boundary. Air mass will remain very moist with continued tropical tap from both the southern Gulf and eastern Pacific.

Heavy rainfall is certainly possible over the next several days, but current trends indicate any heavy rains will be scattered and likely not concentrated over one particular area which should help keep the flood threat to a minimum. With that said, areas south of I-10 are currently working on one of the wettest Septembers on record so grounds in these areas are fairly soggy and it will not take much rainfall to cause issues.

Into next week the pattern remains fairly stagnant with high rain chances likely to continue as the frontal boundary washes out over the region. ECMWF and GFS show a decent cold front surging down the plains and into TX by the middle of next week. Looking at temperatures in the source region of Canada…it is fairly cool with current temperatures running in the 20’s and 30’s. Will hold out hope that the front does in fact make it into the state and off the coast giving the area a significant break in the heat and humidity, but at this range and time of year I have my doubts.

[DoctorMu]

It's already humid (dew point = 75°)...but just not as hot and rainier this weekend.

So, just enjoying the green before brown patch season.

Getting my fungicide application down today for just that reason.

Started with Sulfur last week. I may get fungicide in the next week. It makes a small dent. We're near a street light, which oddly seems to trigger or enhance down path in the front lawn.

[DoctorMu]

HGX Summer

Our A/C broke down in the middle of the July heat wave. Brutal. TBH, we had some clouds in August, a drop or two. I've seen worse. September started off rainy and cooler. The heat is starting to get old this week, though. Looking forward to that first cool front in 7-8 days.

[DoctorMu]

A vigorous and long lasting cool front. Temps in the 70s in the NW area of the region.





Canadian bringing it as well.



Ensemble for the Trifecta.



Better get that fungicide this weekend!

[srainhoutx]

HGX Summer

Our A/C broke down in the middle of the July heat wave. Brutal. TBH, we had some clouds in August, a drop or two. I've seen worse. September started off rainy and cooler. The heat is starting to get old this week. Looking forward to that first cool from in 7-8 days.

We replaced our 21 year old original HVAC System in March. We are seeing a 20% reduction in cost since replacement of all original flood lighting in vaulted ceilings to complete LED lighting. Replacing all windows to double hung Argon filled storm windows is the next item on improvements.

[Katdaddy]

A transition to a wet pattern across SE TX is beginning with a few showers near Matagorda Bay this morning.

[srainhoutx]

Thursday morning briefing from Jeff:

Increasing threat for heavy rainfall over the next several days.

Several weather factors will be coming together over the next several days to produce periods of showers and thunderstorms. These factors include a slow moving frontal boundary which will eventually stall and wash out over the region, the remains of tropical cyclone Isaac and the mid and high level moisture plume from a weakening tropical depression over western Mexico.

Moisture will begin to increase today into Friday with radar already showing a decent push of scattered showers and thunderstorms along the coast and inland over SE TX. Expect coverage to increase with heating today as the air mass becomes increasingly tropical. PWS increase into the 1.9-2.2 inch range on Friday and expect even greater coverage of showers and thunderstorms. A slow moving frontal boundary will arrive into the region over the weekend, but likely stall across C and N TX which will help focus more concentrated heavy rainfall in that region. Would not be surprised to see the surface boundary slide further SE than current forecast due to outflow boundaries helping to push the front closer to our area. This may increase the threat for more organized heavy rainfall especially across the north and western portions of the area Saturday into early next week.

Overall rainfall totals of 1-3 inches appear likely with higher amounts especially if any outflow boundaries or the actual front itself moves into the region. Will need to keep an eye on rainfall trends and totals over the next several days as they could eventually pile up and grounds saturate leading to more significant amounts of run-off.

Wet pattern will remain for much of next week with the old frontal boundary washing out over the area and continued influx of both Pacific and Gulf moisture.

[jasons2k]

1-3” doesn’t seem like that much...

[DoctorMu]

1-3” doesn’t seem like that much...

We've had about 3 in of rain this Sept, so I'd take it to round out the month. Foliage is actually green around here with the sprinkler system off!

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 201512
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
Issued by National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1012 AM CDT Thu Sep 20 2018

.UPDATE...
Mainly southeast flow is noted across the region this morning and
this has allowed for decent Gulf moisture to move in with
precipitable water values noted around 2 inches and mean relative
humidity values from the surface to 50H over 70 percent. Also,
water vapor imagery shows a short wave moving out of deep south
Texas and toward the forecast area. Radar already showing some
isolated activity, and with the combination of good Gulf moisture,
daytime heating, and the short wave, scattered showers and
thunderstorms should fill in during the afternoon hours. The
current forecast is looking on track, and no significant changes
need at this time.

07/LCH

&&

[BlueJay]

I'm hearing some rumbles of thunder up here in the woods.

[Texaspirate11]

98l NORTH OF BERMUDA