August 2020:

[jasons2k]

Hi guys!

Long-time lurker and infrequent poster. I’m a Meteorologist in Savannah, Georgia, but I’m originally from Houston. I caution getting too relaxed, especially with Laura. Operational models may suggest one thing, but ensembles - especially the EPS - suggest another. A pretty stout extension of the Bermuda High is forecast to build into the southeastern U.S. A more westward track through the GOM is entirely still on the table with Laura.

No reason to complain about the lack of rain just yet.

Welcome back! I used to live there on Wilmington Island. it's a beautiful place! Back in the 80's, when I was a kid, I could call-up Pat Prokop at WTOC all the time and ask him questions. He was always so patient with me. I believe he retired a few years back but he was one of the best OCMs around. He could have easily done well in a much larger market but I think Savannah became "home" for him.

[DoctorMu]

Hi guys!

Long-time lurker and infrequent poster. I’m a Meteorologist in Savannah, Georgia, but I’m originally from Houston. I caution getting too relaxed, especially with Laura. Operational models may suggest one thing, but ensembles - especially the EPS - suggest another. A pretty stout extension of the Bermuda High is forecast to build into the southeastern U.S. A more westward track through the GOM is entirely still on the table with Laura.

No reason to complain about the lack of rain just yet.

Thanks for the moment of sanity!

EPS, GEFS, GEPS Ensembles still have landfall on the Texas Gulf coast between Beaumont and Galveston or near Rockport. Given that the models have really struggled with initial conditions, the Ensembles are the most sensible guides for now. The good news is that Ensembles show substantial weakening of both Marco and Laura as they reach the coast.


Also, per Jason given the curvatures and interaction of the systems, a small error with make a substantial difference in the exact coastal landfall of both tropical systems.

[Rip76]

Lake Charles sounds reasonable.

[weatherguy425]

Hi guys!

Long-time lurker and infrequent poster. I’m a Meteorologist in Savannah, Georgia, but I’m originally from Houston. I caution getting too relaxed, especially with Laura. Operational models may suggest one thing, but ensembles - especially the EPS - suggest another. A pretty stout extension of the Bermuda High is forecast to build into the southeastern U.S. A more westward track through the GOM is entirely still on the table with Laura.

No reason to complain about the lack of rain just yet.

Thanks for the moment of sanity!

EPS, GEFS, GEPS Ensembles still have landfall on the Texas Gulf coast between Beaumont and Galveston or near Rockport. Given that the models have really struggled with initial conditions, the Ensembles are the most sensible guides for now. The good news is that Ensembles show substantial weakening of both Marco and Laura as they reach the coast.


Also, per Jason given the curvatures and interaction of the systems, a small error with make a substantial difference in the exact coastal landfall of both tropical systems.

While much is unknown and you’re totally right about unknown interaction - the environment across the Gulf will favor intensification with Laura. Shear will be lesser, waters very warm with a large anticyclone possible developing over Laura as it passes through the central Gulf. Laura may strengthen all the way until landfall - wherever that may be.

[Katdaddy]

Marco looks to be moving more N and NW via satellite and depending on what Recon is finding, we may have shift to the E with the forecast path later today. The good news is that shear will help weaken Marco especially if remains small in size as it approaches the coast. Still many unknowns but have no fear when we have shear. Laura is moving more NW and about to move over Puerto Rico looking at the radar.

[DoctorMu]

Hi guys!

Long-time lurker and infrequent poster. I’m a Meteorologist in Savannah, Georgia, but I’m originally from Houston. I caution getting too relaxed, especially with Laura. Operational models may suggest one thing, but ensembles - especially the EPS - suggest another. A pretty stout extension of the Bermuda High is forecast to build into the southeastern U.S. A more westward track through the GOM is entirely still on the table with Laura.

No reason to complain about the lack of rain just yet.

Thanks for the moment of sanity!

EPS, GEFS, GEPS Ensembles still have landfall on the Texas Gulf coast between Beaumont and Galveston or near Rockport. Given that the models have really struggled with initial conditions, the Ensembles are the most sensible guides for now. The good news is that Ensembles show substantial weakening of both Marco and Laura as they reach the coast.


Also, per Jason given the curvatures and interaction of the systems, a small error with make a substantial difference in the exact coastal landfall of both tropical systems.

While much is unknown and you’re totally right about unknown interaction - the environment across the Gulf will favor intensification with Laura. Shear will be lesser, waters very warm with a large anticyclone possible developing over Laura as it passes through the central Gulf. Laura may strengthen all the way until landfall - wherever that may be.

But if Marco is stronger than expected, it could stir up slightly cooler water in its wake that could partially mitigate Laura's strengthening.

This is an unprecedented forecast nightmare.

[weatherguy425]

Thanks for the moment of sanity!

EPS, GEFS, GEPS Ensembles still have landfall on the Texas Gulf coast between Beaumont and Galveston or near Rockport. Given that the models have really struggled with initial conditions, the Ensembles are the most sensible guides for now. The good news is that Ensembles show substantial weakening of both Marco and Laura as they reach the coast.


Also, per Jason given the curvatures and interaction of the systems, a small error with make a substantial difference in the exact coastal landfall of both tropical systems.

While much is unknown and you’re totally right about unknown interaction - the environment across the Gulf will favor intensification with Laura. Shear will be lesser, waters very warm with a large anticyclone possible developing over Laura as it passes through the central Gulf. Laura may strengthen all the way until landfall - wherever that may be.

But if Marco is stronger than expected, it could stir up slightly cooler water in its wake that could partially mitigate Laura's strengthening.

This is an unprecedented forecast nightmare.

Not much opportunity for significant upwelling with teeny-tiny Marco. Water temperatures in the 86°-89° range. SST won’t be an issue for Laura.

[Seantx81]

And you have this from Joe Bastardi:

"From earlie tweet r NHC stronger with Marco. Interesting forecast as its hard to believe a storm in the height of the season over warmer than average water in the gulf, heading for favorable areas of the MJO, would weaken, If it stays compact, I dont think it will."

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/stat ... 0746113024

[weatherguy425]

https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/129 ... 05730?s=21

^^ in regards to growing western, central Gulf threat from Laura.

[Cpv17]

Some of the models are now showing Marco going into the FL panhandle. What a mess this is.

[dp6]

So there's a hurricane warning within 100 miles of Galveston, yet as usual the Houston office of the NWS is the only office between the panhandle and NOLA to not have issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook. Anyone know why that office seems to despise ever issuing them? I assume they have a rationale, I'm just wondering what it is.

[txbear]

Going to need to restock the beer fridge with this complex of a situation

[cperk]

12Z Euro has Marco headed to Louisiana.

[Kingwood36]

Watches will be posted later today for marco from Travis herzog fb page

[DoctorMu]

Going to need to restock the beer fridge with this complex of a situation

I'm going to need a bigger bottle!

[snowman65]

12Z Euro has Marco headed to Louisiana.

It has them both hitting NOLA area

[srainhoutx]

Hires European suggests Marco would be a Cat 1 Hurricane into SE Louisiana. 983mb. Laura headed for SE Louisiana as well.

Edit to add: 12Z HMON has Laura hitting the TX/MX border as a Hurricane.

[Kingwood36]

Well i guess ill return this 150.00 worth of supplies lol

[snowman65]

The way this is shaping up, is it too late to change Lauras name to Polo??

[weatherguy425]

Well i guess ill return this 150.00 with of supplies lol

It’s only late August and uncertainty remains high with Laura over the next 4-6 days. Standard advice is to always have a kit ready. Keep it. Lol.