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Not buying the offshore track run by the GFS, model guidance is in agreement with the Euro that this is going to move more into texas, The GFS continues to be an outlier here, Im 90% confident that the Euro solution is correct, the GFS cant win every battle, and I just dont see its scenario playing it, unlikely

How high would the rain chances be Saturday 9/18? I have a race that morning.

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 11, 2021 5:34 pm Not buying the offshore track run by the GFS, model guidance is in agreement with the Euro that this is going to move more into texas, The GFS continues to be an outlier here, Im 90% confident that the Euro solution is correct

There CMC is still into the Rio Grande area and NAVGEM, as well, is offshore then into the Sabine River area. This may not be the most likely scenario right now, but it remains possible. Don’t dismiss it yet.

The remnants go to the border area and just rains out there for awhile.

weatherguy425 im not, but just looking at the ensemble data, and the hurricane models on tropical tidbits, id say roughly 90% of guidance is favoring this moving into texas before making a NE turn inland , the GFS and Euro are still not agreeing yet, but i suspect the GFS will eventually cave in to the Euro

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 11, 2021 5:41 pm weatherguy425 im not, but just looking at the ensemble data, and the hurricane models on tropical tidbits, id say roughly 90% of guidance is favoring this moving into texas before making a NE turn inland , the GFS and Euro are still not agreeing yet, but i suspect the GFS will eventually cave in to the Euro

Gotcha. But, enough uncertainty remains to not discount it.

wxman57 on S2K:

I have a 50kt TS inland into Matagorda Bay 3am Tuesday. Passes over Houston with 25-30 mph winds. Houston may see some 40-50 mph gusts in squalls on Tuesday. Heavy rain event for Houston. I'm not concerned about the wind aspect.

davidiowx wrote: ↑Sat Sep 11, 2021 5:50 pm wxman57 on S2K:

I have a 50kt TS inland into Matagorda Bay 3am Tuesday. Passes over Houston with 25-30 mph winds. Houston may see some 40-50 mph gusts in squalls on Tuesday. Heavy rain event for Houston. I'm not concerned about the wind aspect.

Well I sure hope he’s wrong .

davidiowx wrote: ↑Sat Sep 11, 2021 5:50 pm wxman57 on S2K:

I have a 50kt TS inland into Matagorda Bay 3am Tuesday. Passes over Houston with 25-30 mph winds. Houston may see some 40-50 mph gusts in squalls on Tuesday. Heavy rain event for Houston. I'm not concerned about the wind aspect.

Looks like he's going with the Euro,which shows a similar setup in regards to track and wind gust.

don wrote: ↑Sat Sep 11, 2021 6:04 pm

davidiowx wrote: ↑Sat Sep 11, 2021 5:50 pm wxman57 on S2K:

I have a 50kt TS inland into Matagorda Bay 3am Tuesday. Passes over Houston with 25-30 mph winds. Houston may see some 40-50 mph gusts in squalls on Tuesday. Heavy rain event for Houston. I'm not concerned about the wind aspect.

Looks like he's going with the Euro,which shows a similar setup in regards to track and wind gust.

That puts us on the dirty side right? Whatever dirty side it will have if it gets to ts strength

Kingwood36 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 11, 2021 6:14 pm

don wrote: ↑Sat Sep 11, 2021 6:04 pm

davidiowx wrote: ↑Sat Sep 11, 2021 5:50 pm wxman57 on S2K:

I have a 50kt TS inland into Matagorda Bay 3am Tuesday. Passes over Houston with 25-30 mph winds. Houston may see some 40-50 mph gusts in squalls on Tuesday. Heavy rain event for Houston. I'm not concerned about the wind aspect.

Looks like he's going with the Euro,which shows a similar setup in regards to track and wind gust.

That puts us on the dirty side right? Whatever dirty side it will have if it gets to ts strength

Yes

don wrote: ↑Sat Sep 11, 2021 6:16 pm

Kingwood36 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 11, 2021 6:14 pm

don wrote: ↑Sat Sep 11, 2021 6:04 pm

Looks like he's going with the Euro,which shows a similar setup in regards to track and wind gust.

That puts us on the dirty side right? Whatever dirty side it will have if it gets to ts strength

Yes

It’ll be interesting to see what the structure is as it rides the coast. Some southwesterly shear and dry air on it’s west, northwest side could really pinch impacts on its western side; it’d be more east side dominant.

Now, a track more due north, rather than northeast, after a Matagorda landfall would bring more breezy winds, rain into the Metro as it passes.

Kingwood36 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 11, 2021 6:14 pm

don wrote: ↑Sat Sep 11, 2021 6:04 pm

davidiowx wrote: ↑Sat Sep 11, 2021 5:50 pm wxman57 on S2K:

I have a 50kt TS inland into Matagorda Bay 3am Tuesday. Passes over Houston with 25-30 mph winds. Houston may see some 40-50 mph gusts in squalls on Tuesday. Heavy rain event for Houston. I'm not concerned about the wind aspect.

Looks like he's going with the Euro,which shows a similar setup in regards to track and wind gust.

That puts us on the dirty side right? Whatever dirty side it will have if it gets to ts strength

Looks good for you if you want some rain. That track would put me on the dry side, unfortunately. Good thing for me though is that even if I’m on the dry side rain chances look good for the next couple weeks.

thoughts on golden triangle?

snowman65 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 11, 2021 6:44 pm thoughts on golden triangle?

Pretty much the same situation as the rest of SE Texas, but being further east chances are higher for heavy rain through the middle of the week. Outside of that, we likely won't know where the heaviest rain will set up until Monday or Tuesday.

snowman65 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 11, 2021 6:44 pm thoughts on golden triangle?

Dust off the rain boots. And then some.

18Z GFS Ensembles

Andrew wrote: ↑Sat Sep 11, 2021 7:17 pm 18Z GFS Ensembles

In that model, it looks like it will be over water longer as it travels to the upper Texas coast. What is your opinion of it intensifying?

Any concern about a stall over the Houston metro?

Tx2005 unlikely but not impossible either