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brazoriatx wrote: ↑Fri Aug 19, 2022 1:14 pm 99L now has a 70% chance

NHC has begun advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone #4

Tropical Storm Warnings are issued for the western Gulf coast from Boca de Catan, MX to Port Mansfield, TX including the southern Laguna Madre.

Discussion:

USAF plane investigating 99L this afternoon was unable to close off a defined low level circulation and instead found mainly southeast winds with very weak winds on the southwest edge of the large mass of deep convection. IR Satellite Loop for Invest 99L | Tropical Tidbits It is possible that a low level center may form near the southwest edge of the thunderstorms where the plane found weak winds, or a new low level circulation to develop further to the northeast closer to the deep thunderstorms and the mid level circulation. The plane did find an area of 25-30kt winds well to the northeast of the weak wind field near the active thunderstorms.

Track:

The system is generally moving toward the NW at around 15mph on the southwestern edge of a mid level high pressure ridge over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and this motion is expected to continue through the next 24-36 hours bringing the center ashore near the northeast coast of Mexico just south of the Rio Grande River. While there is some uncertainty in exactly where a low level center will form there is fairly high confidence on a general NW track through 48 hours and the guidance cluster is showing little spread.

Intensity:

The system is in favorable conditions for development with light vertical wind shear, warm sea surface temperatures and good upper level outflow to the north, south, and east. Additionally, developing tropical systems in this part of the Gulf of Mexico tend to have some help in developing due to the shape of the coastline which can help tighten a developing low level circulation. 99L is expected to make landfall as a 45mph tropical storm in 24 hours, although most guidance keeps the system in the 35-40mph range and the system will only have about 24 hours over the water. Tropical storm conditions may extend as far north as deep southern Texas depending on exactly where the center eventually forms.

It is likely 99L will become absorbed into the incoming low pressure and frontal system over Texas early next week and this may help to enhance already high forecasted rainfall amounts.

jasons2k wrote: ↑Fri Aug 19, 2022 6:36 pm I was stuck in another donut hole for most of the morning. No screen shots because I had left my phone in my wife's vehicle. Anyway, this went on for hours but it felt like months. Finally, I got some moderate rain at the house but I missed the heavy stuff again. I got 0.44"

Not bad but still seeking out that soaker. Things may be aligning for that to "finally" happen but I don't want to jinx it.

Dls2010r wrote: ↑Fri Aug 19, 2022 6:44 pm Is that a good or bad thing Jason?

SLM87TX wrote: ↑Fri Aug 19, 2022 10:25 pm Well north of huntsville still sitting at 0.04. My dust is still safe from being mud. Glad to hear other people good luck.