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Re: December 2022

Posted: Mon Dec 12, 2022 11:03 pm
by bdog38
when the forecasters use 30% below normal temps, means prepare.

Re: December 2022

Posted: Mon Dec 12, 2022 11:31 pm
by DoctorMu
MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Mon Dec 12, 2022 10:13 pm
jasons2k wrote: Mon Dec 12, 2022 10:01 pm Storms in West Texas have exploded:

https://twitter.com/VortixWx/status/1602503986099400704
This ULL is fierce
This is going to be a system that generates both tornados and feet of snow. Then drags down arctic air. Remarkable.

Re: December 2022

Posted: Mon Dec 12, 2022 11:32 pm
by DoctorMu
tireman4 wrote: Mon Dec 12, 2022 10:20 pm Worst case scenario, Wxman 57 says, his private jet and pilot are ready for a trip to Sydney. Lol I am with you on your numbers.
He better start making vegemite sammiches. ;)

Re: December 2022

Posted: Tue Dec 13, 2022 1:23 am
by Stratton20
00z Euro is very cold with a winter storm developing in the state

Re: December 2022

Posted: Tue Dec 13, 2022 2:58 am
by DoctorMu
Stratton20 wrote: Tue Dec 13, 2022 1:23 am 00z Euro is very cold with a winter storm developing in the state
Euro has an ice storm on the 22nd.

Re: December 2022

Posted: Tue Dec 13, 2022 6:01 am
by brazoriatx
DoctorMu wrote: Tue Dec 13, 2022 2:58 am
Stratton20 wrote: Tue Dec 13, 2022 1:23 am 00z Euro is very cold with a winter storm developing in the state
Euro has an ice storm on the 22nd.
For our area?

Re: December 2022

Posted: Tue Dec 13, 2022 6:42 am
by sambucol
DoctorMu wrote: Tue Dec 13, 2022 2:58 am
Stratton20 wrote: Tue Dec 13, 2022 1:23 am 00z Euro is very cold with a winter storm developing in the state
Euro has an ice storm on the 22nd.
Is it showing an ice storm for the entire state?

Re: December 2022

Posted: Tue Dec 13, 2022 7:09 am
by Harveyvsallison
sambucol wrote: Tue Dec 13, 2022 6:42 am
DoctorMu wrote: Tue Dec 13, 2022 2:58 am
Stratton20 wrote: Tue Dec 13, 2022 1:23 am 00z Euro is very cold with a winter storm developing in the state
Euro has an ice storm on the 22nd.
Is it showing an ice storm for the entire state?
The Euro has an ice storm over southeast Texas but it’s all freezing rain. The models aren’t showing much cold for southeast Texas. Record breaking temps for Kansas and Oklahoma. However, don’t expect a record breaking event in southeast Texas. Keep watching

Re: December 2022

Posted: Tue Dec 13, 2022 7:12 am
by Harveyvsallison
GFS is dry and cold around Christmas. Lows in the low 20’s highs in the low 30’s for December 23-26. CMC shows very cold air moving in. CMC ensemble mean shows below freezing temps north of I-10 for 72 hours. Very dry however. Models aren’t locked in fully as of yet.

Re: December 2022

Posted: Tue Dec 13, 2022 7:23 am
by redneckweather
Very cold air moving in before Christmas but nothing earth shattering or what I would call historic, thankfully. Looks like a dry run on the GFS and a few other models. Hopefully that's the end of that and we see a trend for a more wintry weather solution during this period over the next few days.

Re: December 2022

Posted: Tue Dec 13, 2022 7:23 am
by sambucol
Harveyvsallison wrote: Tue Dec 13, 2022 7:09 am
sambucol wrote: Tue Dec 13, 2022 6:42 am
DoctorMu wrote: Tue Dec 13, 2022 2:58 am

Euro has an ice storm on the 22nd.
Is it showing an ice storm for the entire state?
The Euro has an ice storm over southeast Texas but it’s all freezing rain.

Got it. You’re saying the 00z Euro is showing an ice storm over SETX.

Re: December 2022

Posted: Tue Dec 13, 2022 7:28 am
by MontgomeryCoWx
sambucol wrote: Tue Dec 13, 2022 7:23 am
Harveyvsallison wrote: Tue Dec 13, 2022 7:09 am
sambucol wrote: Tue Dec 13, 2022 6:42 am

Is it showing an ice storm for the entire state?
The Euro has an ice storm over southeast Texas but it’s all freezing rain.

Got it. You’re saying the 00z Euro is showing an ice storm over SETX.
Correct.

Models underestimating temps IMO. If those highs verify and the snowpack that is already being laid down right now is as deep as they say, those temps will end up being an easy 7-10 colder.

Re: December 2022

Posted: Tue Dec 13, 2022 7:30 am
by Cpv17
MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Tue Dec 13, 2022 7:28 am
sambucol wrote: Tue Dec 13, 2022 7:23 am
Harveyvsallison wrote: Tue Dec 13, 2022 7:09 am

The Euro has an ice storm over southeast Texas but it’s all freezing rain.

Got it. You’re saying the 00z Euro is showing an ice storm over SETX.
Correct.

Models underestimating temps IMO. If those highs verify and the snowpack that is already being laid down right now is as deep as they say, those temps will end up being an easy 7-10 colder.
With the strength of the HP’s being forecasted those temps will likely be much colder than what the operationals are currently showing.

Re: December 2022

Posted: Tue Dec 13, 2022 7:40 am
by brazoriatx
Models always seem to under estimate cold temps this far our. Give it till Sunday or Monday and we should have a much clearer understanding. As of now it's all speculation

Re: December 2022

Posted: Tue Dec 13, 2022 7:44 am
by Harveyvsallison
MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Tue Dec 13, 2022 7:28 am
sambucol wrote: Tue Dec 13, 2022 7:23 am
Harveyvsallison wrote: Tue Dec 13, 2022 7:09 am

The Euro has an ice storm over southeast Texas but it’s all freezing rain.

Got it. You’re saying the 00z Euro is showing an ice storm over SETX.
Correct.

Models underestimating temps IMO. If those highs verify and the snowpack that is already being laid down right now is as deep as they say, those temps will end up being an easy 7-10 colder.
I agree, models haven’t fully picked up on this yet. However, if you give it a few days models will start converging

Re: December 2022

Posted: Tue Dec 13, 2022 7:52 am
by Harveyvsallison
Okay well the Euro has mostly rain for southeast Texas and an ice storm from DFW south all the way down to Huntsville. The GFS shows all rain. The CMC is dry but the models are flip flopping

Re: December 2022

Posted: Tue Dec 13, 2022 7:53 am
by redneckweather
GFS shows us plenty cold during the 23rd-25th time frame for wintry precip if we can get a coastal low to get cranking. Looks like lows in the teens and highs in the 20's during this time frame. I personally do NOT want it any colder than that.lol

Re: December 2022

Posted: Tue Dec 13, 2022 7:58 am
by MontgomeryCoWx
redneckweather wrote: Tue Dec 13, 2022 7:53 am GFS shows us plenty cold during the 23rd-25th time frame for wintry precip if we can get a coastal low to get cranking. Looks like lows in the teens and highs in the 20's during this time frame. I personally do NOT want it any colder than that.lol
Perfect hunting weather in CoCo over Christmas. My new Sitka gear will be needed.

Re: December 2022

Posted: Tue Dec 13, 2022 7:59 am
by Harveyvsallison
redneckweather wrote: Tue Dec 13, 2022 7:53 am GFS shows us plenty cold during the 23rd-25th time frame for wintry precip if we can get a coastal low to get cranking. Looks like lows in the teens and highs in the 20's during this time frame. I personally do NOT want it any colder than that.lol
Lows could get as far down as 0. Right now the worst of it is focused on Kansas and Oklahoma. Models are shifting south. Just prepare now my fellow houstonians. I just moved to Kansas but am watching this

Re: December 2022

Posted: Tue Dec 13, 2022 8:08 am
by Cpv17
With the PNA around neutral, this should funnel the coldest anomalies deep into Texas.