AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
351 PM CST THU FEB 11 2010
.DISCUSSION...
ANTICIPATED MAJOR WINTER STORM IS UNDERWAY AS LIGHT TO SOMETIMES
MODERATE RAIN COVERS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...
WITH SPORADIC REPORTS OF SLEET MIXED WITH THE RAIN CONTINUING TO
COME INTO THE OFFICE. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET
BEFORE THE FUN STARTS.
SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE LOWER TX COAST WHILE
WATER VAPOR SHOWS POTENT SHORTWAVE CROSSING CNTL TX. SFC LOW IS
PROGGED TO TRACK EWD ACROSS THE CNTL/NRN GULF TO A LOCATION OFF
SERN LA THROUGH TONIGHT. THE SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO
THE FORECAST AREA BY DAWN...WHILE THE AREA IS FORECAST TO LIE IN RRQ
OF UPPER JET OVERNIGHT. COMBO OF THESE FEATURES SHOULD PROVIDE A
BURST OF ENHANCED LIFT OVER THE REGION BETWEEN 06Z-12Z BEFORE THE
SYSTEMS ALL PUSH EAST OF THE AREA.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE PRECIP CHANGING OVER TO ALL SNOW THIS
EVENING OVER THE NERN ZONES...AND BY MIDNIGHT FOR THE ENTIRE NRN
1/2 OF THE AREA. STILL EXPECTING HIGHEST ACCUMULATION OVER THE
NERN ZONES WHERE LIFT WILL BE ENHANCED...AND THUS AM CONTINUING
THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THESE AREAS. NO CHANGES MADE TO THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AREA EITHER. MAIN CHANGE TO THE WEATHER
GRIDS THIS AFTERNOON INVOLVES THE TIER OF PARISHES/COUNTIES ALONG
I-10 CORRIDOR FROM THE ATCHAFALAYA TO VIDOR AND THEN HARDIN COUNTY
WHERE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SLEET HAS BEEN INTRODUCED FOR AFTER
MIDNIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A WARM LAYER
ABOVE THE SFC WHILE SFC TEMPS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING OVERNIGHT. NOT TOTALLY CONVINCED WE`LL SEE ANY FROZEN
PRECIP TONIGHT IN THIS AREA BUT AM NOT CONVINCED WE`RE NOT GOING
TO SEE IT EITHER...THEREFORE HAVE ELECTED TO ERR ON THE SIDE OF
CAUTION AND INTRODUCE THE SLEET MENTION. WOULD EXPECT THAT THE
CITY OF BEAUMONT WOULD ALSO SEE SOME OF THIS BUT CANNOT INCLUDE IN
THE ZONES ATTM DUE TO THE GEOGRAPHY OF JEFFERSON COUNTY. ONLY
CHANGE TO THE WARNING AND ADVISORY ATTM IS TO EXTEND IT INTO
FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH SLIGHTLY LATER ENDING TO THE WINTER WEATHER
INCLUDED IN THE GRIDS/ZONES THIS AFTERNOON.
THE PRECIP WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
STORM SYSTEM PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA. BEYOND THIS EVENT...EXPECT
DRY WEATHER FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS NWRLY FLOW TAKES OVER
ALOFT AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE PASSES THE AREA. CUTOFF LOW DROPPING
THROUGH THE PLAINS IS PROGGED TO PULL A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY USHERING IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF RAINFALL. DRY WEATHER SHOULD
THEN PERSIST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
