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Dallas north or Woodlands north?

Rip76 wrote: ↑Sat Aug 26, 2023 6:20 pm Dallas north or Woodlands north?

10 north

10-4. Thanks for the heads up.

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Sat Aug 26, 2023 6:12 pm Models looking decent for you northerners tomorrow.

The 18z HRRR has lots of action for the Houston area. We'll see if it sticks.

So NWS is saying there's a chance...

Celebrating National Dog Day (isn't every day?)

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
353 PM CDT Sat Aug 26 2023

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday Night)
Issued at 318 PM CDT Sat Aug 26 2023

Tis a hot afternoon on this National Dog Day. Most inland areas
are in the triple digits once again with temps well into the 90s
at the coast. Perhaps fetch is better played indoors or at least
not until later this evening when temperatures aren`t as hot. Make
sure you and your dog(s) are well hydrated. Also check the
pavement to make sure it`s not too hot for your furry friend`s
paws. A burned paw is a terrible gift for a canine on this
National Dog Day. Like yesterday, we cannot rule out isolated
shower or thunderstorm activity. Unlike yesterday, there appears
to be less diurnal cumulus development, thus, fewer signs that the
atmosphere is trying to bestow upon you and your dog a much
needed rain shower. If this heat is bothering you, then you will
not like this next paragraph.


Tomorrow`s temperatures look interesting to say the least. A
strong mid/upper ridge centered near the Texas / New Mexico
border will continue its westward progression. The resulting
changed in the regional flow pattern will advect warmer
temperatures aloft, currently to our north, into southeast Texas.
850mb temps could possible warm into the upper-20s centigrade,
particularly north of I-10. This could easily translate to
widespread 105+ temps over inland areas (including interior
coastal counties) as the near surface atmosphere mixes with the
toasty atmospheric layers aloft. In addition, a weak frontal
boundary will approaching the area from the north. Westerly flow
coupled with compression ahead of the front could boost
temperatures even further. However, this front does add an ounce
of complexity to the forecast.

Capping will weaken somewhat tomorrow as the ridge pushes
westward. The addition of frontal lift and modest PVA into the
region is expected to be enough to spark isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms. If this were to occur early enough,
then the front could save us from challenging all-time records.
If not, then some inland areas will likely approach 110F again!
That is very dangerous heat and certainly too hot to take part in
Crab Soup Day (everyday is a holiday).

There is one other feature worth mentioning. A subtle shortwave
can be seen over southwestern Kansas via water vapor imagery and
RAP 500mb analysis. The steering flow should take this shortave
into either southeast Texas or Louisiana by tomorrow night. GFS
and ECMWF both initialize this shortwave decently well but show
differing solutions. GFS keeps it pretty weak and while the ECMWF
shows a more robust disturbance. As you can imagine, the more
robust solution is showing a better chance of showers and
thunderstorms overnight Sunday. If mother nature is going to turn
up the furnace tomorrow, then the least it could do is give us
some rain late Sunday.

Self

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 318 PM CDT Sat Aug 26 2023

The aforementioned weak frontal boundary will continue to push south
towards the coast on Monday. Global models show hints of the
afternoon sea breeze attempting to thwart it`s southern progression,
but pushing offshore regardless and becoming quasi-stationary over
the Gulf of Mexico. Weak capping, support from shortwave impulses
and 1.8-2.1" PWs are enough to support scattered storm development
throughout the day, so any mesocale boundary interactions (like with
the sea breeze) should further enhance rain chances during the day.
Any showers/storms that develop should provide relief from the
oppressive heat. Locations that don`t receive rainfall may still see
triple digit highs on Monday. Thankfully, reduced subsidence,
decreased 850mb temperatures, lower moisture and offshore flow
should work to bring some substantial relief heat-wise in the days
following. Even with decreasing rain chances, highs for Tuesday and
onwards look to be in the 90s to lower 100s with heat indicies under
106 degrees. Lows should be in the 70s to lower 80s.

On Wednesday, a weak midlevel trough axis looks to dive south across
the Plains into SE Texas. PWs slipping under 1.4" and dry conditions
in the lowers levels don`t bode well for getting much in the way of
measurable rainfall for Wednesday. Regardless, current guidance
keeps this trough looming over the coastal bend, becoming a weak
midlevel low on Thursday. This feature aims to increase rain chances
during the later half of next week, though uncertainty remains as to
how this feature will evolve. Onshore flow develops Thursday
night/Friday morning, ushering in moisture return and gradual
warming through the end of the week.

03

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Sat Aug 26 2023

VFR vis and cigs expected through this evening. Isolated
shra/tsra may enter our region from the NE later today. Given the
isolated coverage and low confidence, no precip was mentioned in
the TAF. Cannot rule out brief MVFR conditions tomorrow morning
for LBX and GLS. A front approaches from the north tomorrow and
could bring isolated to scattered shra/tsra tomorrow afternoon.
For now, VCSH only mentioned for IAH starting 21Z tomorrow.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 318 PM CDT Sat Aug 26 2023

Light to moderate, sea and land breeze driven winds are expected
over the weekend. Rain chances increase on Monday as a weak frontal
boundary pushes southward towards the coastline, later pushing
offshore on Tuesday. Rain chances decrease mid next week while the
sea-land breeze circulation resumes.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 318 PM CDT Sat Aug 26 2023

Very hot and dry conditions are expected ahead of an approaching frontal
boundary on Sunday. By late afternoon and evening, the front is expected
to make the environment increasingly favorable for isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms, especially over our northern counties. Relative
humidity values are expected drop into the 20 to 30 percent range in the
afternoon. We will need to monitor winds near the coast that
could push conditions into Red Flag criteria for our coastal
counties.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 79 107 79 100 / 10 40 40 50
Houston (IAH) 80 107 82 102 / 10 30 40 60
Galveston (GLS) 80 97 83 94 / 10 10 20 50

The middle Gulf Coast has set a slew of new all-time records today: Mobile, AL now at 106°F, while both Slidell, LA and Gulfport, MS both reached 108°F. The latter two are impressive considering that they are right on the shorelines (of both Lake Pontchatrain and MS Sound, respectively).

Hence, tomorrow is definitely one to watch for here, as the NWS discussion above states. For sure, it depends on how exactly the front progresses, as that influences any daytime mixing/compressional patterns at hand. At the same time, with lower heights and lesser subsidence, that could allow convection to initiate faster than on Thursday (even just cloud cover would make the difference during peak heating hours, let alone rain).

CMC, EURO, and mesocale RGEM remain relatively cooler. GFS and mesocale NAMs are hotter, as is the ICON (although recent 18z is not as high as some previous runs). Meanwhile, the mesoscale FV3 and HRRR both have been wildcards, as they produce lots of convection that could make all the difference regarding verified temps (see above).

We shall see...

In the meantime, if anyone wants to join me, it's a good time to start a new ....

*RAIN DANCE INTENSIFIES*

Currently dancing.

user:null wrote: ↑Sat Aug 26, 2023 9:21 pm In the meantime, if anyone wants to join me, it's a good time to start a new ....

*RAIN DANCE INTENSIFIES*

I did my part. I watered my front yard all day yesterday and currently watering in the back. I may even wash and wax the truck.

After several days of advertising 60% chances of rain tomorrow, this morning’s package dropped it down to 40%.

I watered all day yesterday.

I watered most of the night last night. I tried.

hottest summer Ive ever experienced. Been around since 1965. If uts been hotter its because I waz too young to know.. this is BS lol. Only way to make up for it us 3-4 snowfalls this winter.

Rain chances in my area down to 20%. I don't know why I expected any different.

Cromagnum wrote: ↑Sun Aug 27, 2023 12:50 pm Rain chances in my area down to 20%. I don't know why I expected any different.

I said yesterday it was a better chance north of 10. Your chance will be better tomorrow.

Euro has a weak trough that develops over Texas and kind of just stays their as it gets trapped between two ridges, interesting scenario

Dews are in the 50’s outside this afternoon lol that’s crazy!

This is the second time I can remember this summer where we’ve had dews in the 50’s during the afternoon.

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Sun Aug 27, 2023 2:50 pm Dews are in the 50’s outside this afternoon lol that’s crazy!

This is the second time I can remember this summer where we’ve had dews in the 50’s during the afternoon.

Desiccation Sensation.

108°F here currently. Hottest day of the year here.

🥵

There are showers developing to our north along the front, but they'll probably die on the north border of Brazos Country...as daytime heating wanes...if you can say that at 109°F!