srainhoutx wrote: ↑Sat Aug 22, 2020 1:32 pm
Hires European suggests Marco would be a Cat 1 Hurricane into SE Louisiana. 983mb. Laura headed for SE Louisiana as well.
Edit to add: 12Z HMON has Laura hitting the TX/MX border as a Hurricane.
srainhoutx what will the NHC do with this,these models has had no trace of consistency.Where do you think they will issue advisories today.
srainhoutx wrote: ↑Sat Aug 22, 2020 1:32 pm
Hires European suggests Marco would be a Cat 1 Hurricane into SE Louisiana. 983mb. Laura headed for SE Louisiana as well.
Edit to add: 12Z HMON has Laura hitting the TX/MX border as a Hurricane.
And globals, ECMWF included, continue to struggle with Laura over the 0-48 Hour period. New LLC may indeed be on the southern PR coast. We’ll see...
GFS-PARA ensembles favor more-western track. Of course, this isn’t certain either. But, it drives home the point that many options are still on the table.
srainhoutx wrote: ↑Sat Aug 22, 2020 1:32 pm
Hires European suggests Marco would be a Cat 1 Hurricane into SE Louisiana. 983mb. Laura headed for SE Louisiana as well.
Edit to add: 12Z HMON has Laura hitting the TX/MX border as a Hurricane.
srainhoutx what will the NHC do with this,these models has had no trace of consistency.Where do you think they will issue advisories today.
The NHC is going to need Watches/Warnings along portions of the Gulf Coast. We may be about 48 to 60 hours out from landfall. This is why those folks earn the big bucks. Unfortunately for the models have struggled with both of these Storms. My hunch is High Island to Mississippi/Alabama border for Marco.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
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GFS-PARA ensembles favor more-western track. Of course, this isn’t certain either. But, it drives home the point that many options are still on the table.
weathergyy425 we appreciate your experience and knowledge in what can be stressful at times.
Why such a significant shift east on Marco? Wouldnt they have seen that at the 10am? Im seeing many local mets confirming on Fb that Marco is now going to East Louisiana. Thats going to be a major shift for nhc and I know they hate doing that. One local met said it hits central Louisiana then makes a hard left into SETX weakened of course. Ensembles still show Texas. I dont know what to believe anymore. I guess thats why they get paid the big bucks.
Last edited by djmike on Sat Aug 22, 2020 2:22 pm, edited 1 time in total.
djmike wrote: ↑Sat Aug 22, 2020 2:21 pm
Why such a significant shift east? Wouldnt they have seen that at the 10am? Im seeing many local mets confirming on Fb that the storm is now going to East Louisiana. Thats going to be a major shift for nhc and I know they hate doing that. One local met said it hits central Louisiana then makes a hard left into SETX weakened of course. Ensembles still show Texas. I dont know what to believe anymore. I guess thats why they get paid the big bucks.
The reason for the shift east is because Marco strengthened more than they thought it would. A stronger storm will go more poleward (north) and a weaker system would go more west. The models/track could still change again though because Marco is about to go into the shredder with some high shear which should weaken it but who knows. We’ll see.
Looks like Marco maybe experiencing some wind shear now. Big outflow boundary spreading NW and the mid level vort now tilted NE. The 18Z track guidance shifted well E of the official track. If in fact it is going to weaken, those model tracks may change again. All this and still no real confidence in any solution.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
srainhoutx wrote: ↑Sat Aug 22, 2020 2:53 pm
Looks like Marco maybe experiencing some wind shear now. Big outflow boundary spreading NW and the mid level vort now tilted NE. The 18Z track guidance shifted well E of the official track. If in fact it is going to weaken, those model tracks may change again. All this and still no real confidence in any solution.
The shear to its north is significant. I’m not sure how it could survive.
Image is the ECMWF ensemble set. Image was tweeted by Ryan Maue, so should be safe to share here. Not only are there still a wide range of options on the table - the ECMWF had relatively poor initialization... MLC has likely taken over as dominant circulation on the SOUTHERN coast of Puerto Rico.
Let’s let data converge over the next 2-3 days before writing anything off with Laura. Lots of fresh data going into models over the next 24-36 hours.
