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I'm preparing tomorrow. Harvey wasn't predicted with that much rain. I think the totals they have now were predicted in line with pre harvey.
some of the biggest events around here are never predicted. make sure you load up on food, water, and beer.

I believe they did predict insane amounts with Harvey.. maybe not 50-60 inch totals but still a lot.

sambucol wrote: ↑Sat Sep 11, 2021 7:21 pm

Andrew wrote: ↑Sat Sep 11, 2021 7:17 pm 18Z GFS Ensembles

In that model, it looks like it will be over water longer as it travels to the upper Texas coast. What is your opinion of it intensifying?

Conditions are okay across the Gulf of Mexico. Some shear will remain present and dry air will be slow to get mixed out but a weak/moderate TS is likely. I think the cap for intensity is a weak cat 1 but that seems unlikely at this point. Heavy rain will be the primary threat here.

vci_guy2003 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 11, 2021 7:39 pm I believe they did predict insane amounts with Harvey.. maybe not 50-60 inch totals but still a lot.

Models were showing 30-40 inches before landfall. A lot of people (myself included) just didn't believe them

bdog38 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 11, 2021 7:36 pm I'm preparing tomorrow. Harvey wasn't predicted with that much rain. I think the totals they have now were predicted in line with pre harvey.
some of the biggest events around here are never predicted. make sure you load up on food, water, and beer.

The extreme flooding potential was highlighted days before landfall and flooding began. Numerous forecasts for 30”+ of rain were made leading up to the event.

Yeah. I got 43” from Harvey then 24” from Imelda here in Beaumont. Ill be prepping for another major flood. Even though probably wont get that much, it never hurts to be ready. I remember saying for harvey and Imelda we would get nowhere near those totals….then 12 hours later Im being rescued in an airboat in my neighborhood. Ive learned to never say never and prep for the worse. Im starting tomorrow…

bdog38 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 11, 2021 7:36 pm I'm preparing tomorrow. Harvey wasn't predicted with that much rain. I think the totals they have now were predicted in line with pre harvey.
some of the biggest events around here are never predicted. make sure you load up on food, water, and beer.

They actually did predict huge rainfall amounts for Harvey.

Tx2005 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 11, 2021 7:26 pm Any concern about a stall over the Houston metro?

Yes

18Z ECMWF shows a similar track to the 12Z. The biggest difference is the system stays more organized inland with 4-8 inches across most of the region. It indicates the best chances for flooding during Tuesday evening/night with pwats exceeding 3 inches (~250% of normal). Also interesting to note it shows possible TS conditions across the region.

Disturbance 43, Advisory #2 Site Forecast for University of Texas Medical Branch at Galveston, Galveston, TX

Discussion: Our forecast takes Disturbance 43 inland east of Brownsville, TX around 3 PM on Monday as a 45 mph tropical storm then inland near Matagorda Bay Tuesday morning as a 60 mph tropical storm. Once inland, the system will slowly weaken to a remnant low by Tuesday evening. However, its slow movement inland across southeast Texas will likely result in very heavy rainfall across the middle Texas coast, southeast Texas, and southwest Louisiana from Monday evening through Tuesday.

Squalls moving into the upper Texas coast Monday afternoon/evening and continuing through Tuesday evening. These squalls may produce wind gusts to tropical storm strength, resulting in scattered power outages. Heavy rainfall may cause flooding-related travel issues.

General Rainfall Amounts:
Rainfall of 5-8 inches likely from Monday evening through Tuesday evening.

Storm Surge:
Tides may increase to 2-4 feet above normal Tuesday morning due to moderate onshore winds.

Percentages are now 90/90 and looking at the model tracks shows the most likely track from Matagorda through the se Tx area. Judging from the usual NHC favorite TVCN consensus line. Closely matching the EC model.

I’m predicting a landfall at Freeport as a Cat 1 (90mph)

TexasBreeze wrote: ↑Sat Sep 11, 2021 8:20 pm Percentages are now 90/90 and looking at the model tracks shows the most likely track from Matagorda through the se Tx area. Judging from the usual NHC favorite TVCN consensus line. Closely matching the EC model.

What are we looking at rainfall wise in the Houston area?

Pas_Bon wrote: ↑Sat Sep 11, 2021 8:26 pm I’m predicting a landfall at Freeport as a Cat 1 (90mph)

Ugh,no!

On average 4 - 8 inches (subject to change of course). GFS shows lesser amounts heavier around Beaumont. Seeing earlier posts-- this is Nothing remotely close to Harvey!!!

Mesco model will come in play usually double it with what euro and gfs show

00Z tropical models - a bit of a shift west from 18Z. Again, with these models in particular, at least subtle sways are more likely until we get a more well established center of circulation.

Pas_Bon wrote: ↑Sat Sep 11, 2021 7:54 pm

bdog38 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 11, 2021 7:36 pm I'm preparing tomorrow. Harvey wasn't predicted with that much rain. I think the totals they have now were predicted in line with pre harvey.
some of the biggest events around here are never predicted. make sure you load up on food, water, and beer.

They actually did predict huge rainfall amounts for Harvey.

not 50"s

For comparison, this was one example of totals models were forecasting for Harvey

I remember that for Harvey, the QPF guys had to add not one, but two new colors to their charts to indicate the potential for 30+ inches, with a note that those might not even be sufficient. The insane predicted rainfall amounts were what prompted me to get the hell out of Dodge for Harvey.