December 2022

[snowman65]

At what point do local mets start mentioning this potential and putting numbers to the forecast? Not hearing much in the golden triangle yet.

[jasons2k]

At what point do local mets start mentioning this potential and putting numbers to the forecast? Not hearing much in the golden triangle yet.

Depends. Pretty much all the local mets here mentioned it last night, but it’s still just over a week away. Most TV forecasts go out to 7 days so you will see numbers when you get inside 7 days…unless they show a sneak peek. One OCM here showed a 10-day look ahead with the caveat ‘our actual forecast only goes out 7 days…’

[Cromagnum]

I realize we are a week overextended on what can be predicted, but one model showing super cold and dry and the other showing coldish and wet is still laughable.

[walsean1]

I realize we are a week overextended on what can be predicted, but one model showing super cold and dry and the other showing coldish and wet is still laughable.

I wanted to post a Larry Cosgrove update for the storm coming through Tuesday/Wednesday and Christmas Holiday time frame.

https://t.co/uAutk84b4Z

[Harveyvsallison]

I realize we are a week overextended on what can be predicted, but one model showing super cold and dry and the other showing coldish and wet is still laughable.

Yeah it’s too far out to put faith in any one Model. I say pay attention to the ensemble mean. Frankly, some peoples look at one model run and get excited. That’s why I was clarifying the Euro doesn’t show an Ice storm over SE Texas. Only cold rain

[MontgomeryCoWx]

REST IN PEACE MIKE LEACH!

Ugh. Heartbroken

[walsean1]

I realize we are a week overextended on what can be predicted, but one model showing super cold and dry and the other showing coldish and wet is still laughable.

Yeah it’s too far out to put faith in any one Model. I say pay attention to the ensemble mean. Frankly, some peoples look at one model run and get excited. That’s why I was clarifying the Euro doesn’t show an Ice storm over SE Texas. Only cold rain

If it is true Siberian air, models are too warm. It is -47 degrees deep in Siberia. Also, cold air would need to be in place before precipitation starts to fall although if temperatures are dropping, p- type can change over. Since we are more than a week away, things will change

[jasons2k]

Update from Jeff:

Strong storm system is progressing into the plains this morning with a cold front moving across TX.

Potentially significant arctic air intrusion into the US next week.

Today/Wednesday:
Warm and humid air mass over the region with gusty southerly flow this morning ahead of a cold front that will move across the area this afternoon and evening. Air mass will become increasingly unstable early this afternoon and as the front arrive into the area mid afternoon showers and thunderstorms will develop along and ahead of the boundary. Some of the storms could become severe mainly east of I-45 where dynamics will be best. All severe modes will be possible (large hail, damaging winds, and an isolated tornado). Front slows near the coast this evening and this will likely linger showers into the morning hours on Wednesday ahead of the 850mb front. Drier air mass then filters in on Wednesday and the warmth and humidity of recent weeks will be over.

Generally seasonal weather late week with lows in the 40’s and highs in the low 60’s.

Weekend:
Guidance solutions continue to struggle with the formation of a coastal trough/low over the NW Gulf late Friday into the weekend. The GFS/CMC keep this feature well offshore along with most of the rainfall, while the ECWMF is closer to the coast and spreads rainfall across the area. Will increase clouds from SW to NE starting Friday night and keep rain chances confined closer to the coast for Saturday with a nod toward the offshore coastal development. Temperatures will be cool through this period, but warm enough to keep everything liquid. Should the ECWMF end up being correct, the forecast for this weekend will need to raise rain chances.

Next Week:
Almost all of the focus will be with a potential major arctic air intrusion into the US starting early next week. Upper air pattern will result in a building Alaskan ridge which will help to dislodge extremely cold Siberian air (currently -55 to -75F) and send this air mass over the Arctic Ocean and in the general direction of NW Canada. As this air mass moves into NW Canada an impressive 1055-1070mb arctic surface high pressure dome forms and begins to drop southward toward the Montana border early next week. Extremely cold air is dislodged and begins to move southward with widespread -40 to -50 F into SW Canada and approaching the US border. Upper air pattern then supports this air mass being unleashed into the US early to mid next week. IF model solutions are correct and a 1060-1065mb high is located near the Montana border early next week, there will be little to stop the incredibly dense air mass from pouring southward down the plains.

Since we are still talking in the day 7-9 range for any impacts in the southern plains, will follow the ensemble mean of the GFS, CMC, and ECWMF which all show below to well below normal temperatures starting as early as the 22nd and lasting through the 26/27th. I strongly caution against individual model runs showing various winter storm events as there has been little consistency from run to run and between the different models.

The biggest questions at this point is how cold of an air mass builds into NW Canada this weekend, how much of this cold air comes as far south as TX, does this air mass modify any as it moves southward, will there be any winter precipitation next week. The answers to these questions will reveal themselves over the next few days. My advice at this point is to closely monitor forecasts for next week and be prepared to take cold weather protective actions if that need becomes a reality.

Jeff Lindner
Director Hydrologic Operations Division/Meteorologist
Harris County Flood Control District

[walsean1]

Wanted to post this from Eric Berger of Space City Weather.

https://spacecityweather.com/temperatur ... y-will-go/

[jasons2k]

REST IN PEACE MIKE LEACH!

Ugh. Heartbroken

It is a sad day for us Tech alums. He was one of a kind.

[Cpv17]

REST IN PEACE MIKE LEACH!

Ugh. Heartbroken

I’m with you on this one. This one hurts. Got me in my feels for sure.

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 131225
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
625 AM CST Tue Dec 13 2022

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 352 AM CST Tue Dec 13 2022

Moderate to strong onshore winds are helping with the development
of spotty streamer showers so far this morning. This trend should
continue through mid/late morning, but we`ll a shift to increased
thunderstorm chances going into the afternoon. These storms (dev-
eloping along/ahead of the strong cold front) will be sweeping in
from the NW to the E/SE through the day. Portions of SE TX remain
outlooked as Slight and Enhanced Risk with this activity...mainly
for areas north and east of a College Station to High Island line.
Progged conditions are favorable for the development of strong to
severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds and hail
but isolated tornadoes will also be possible. This activity could
also bring some brief heavy rains to the region. While the storms
should be progressive with movement/speed (to avoid any prolonged
flooding issues), roadway ponding and minor street flooding can`t
be ruled out.

Current timing has the activity moving into the Brazos Valley at/
around noon...the Houston metro from 3-6pm and then stalling near
the coast from 6-9pm. Rain chances could linger over these coast-
al counties/nearshore waters through midnight. North to northwest
winds will strengthening this evening and tonight as the 85h cold
front finally makes it to the CWA. Per the lingering SW way aloft
and wrapround clouds/moisture over the Southern Plains, skies may
not clear (from the NW to the SE) until Weds afternoon. 41

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 352 AM CST Tue Dec 13 2022

Tranquil weather conditions expected through the end of the work
week as surface high pressure builds across the Southern Plains.
Light variable winds and sunny skies are on tap for Thursday, with
highs in the low to mid 60s for much of Southeast TX. A dry frontal
boundary will move through the region late Thursday into Friday
morning and will bring slightly cooler conditions. The lows early
Friday morning will be in the mid 30s to low 40s along areas north
of the I-10 corridor, the low 40s along areas south of the I-10
corridor, and in the mid 40s to low 50s along the coasts. Friday`s
highs will be in the mid 50s to low 60s inland and in the low 60s
along the coasts.

Inconsistencies regarding how much rain we will have on Saturday are
still present in the models. For example, the GFS continues to show
higher levels of low-mid level moisture across the region in
association with a coastal low that is to form across the western
Gulf. Meanwhile, the ECMWF and Canadian keep most of this moisture
over the Gulf waters. If the weather pattern follows the GFS
solution, then expect isolated to scattered showers to being to move
in from the Matagorda Bay region Saturday morning and expand
northeastward during the day. However, if it follows the drier
solution, then most of the shower activity should remain along the
coastal waters and with a few of them moving over the southern
counties throughout the day. Also, a surface high pressure will move
over TX that day, which could keep the coastal low to our south...so
again, rain development may be limited, in particular over areas
north of I-10. Due to these uncertainties, went with a blended
solution (mostly NBM). Once the surface high pressure departs to the
east northeast Saturday night, then that rich moist air mass will be
able to spread across Southeast TX on Sunday and the low will then
be move near the coastal sectors, leading to higher rain chances and
slightly warmer temperatures. The coastal low is expected to move
east northeast along the coastal waters or possibly over the
southern counties on Monday and will be quickly followed by a cold
front, leading to cooler conditions on Tuesday. 24

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 625 AM CST Tue Dec 13 2022

Will start the day with a mix of MVFR/IFR CIGS across the area as
well as scattered streamer showers moving in from the Gulf riding
in on the 20-30kts winds just above the surface. Per the shorter-
range models, have tweaked the timing for when TSRAs are expected
at the terminals: Cll 17-20Z...IAH 21-00Z and GLS 00Z. This front
is forecast to stall along the coast this evening with VCSH like-
ly lingering until midnight for most sites but especially ones to
the south of IAH. A return (or continuation?) of MVFR CIGS during
the overnight hours as wraparound moisture persists. Skies should
clear from the NW to the SE late Weds morning and afternoon. 41

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 352 AM CST Tue Dec 13 2022

Isolated to scattered showers can be expected today ahead of a cold
front that is progged to push off the coast late tonight into
Wednesday morning. Expect stronger showers and thunderstorms just
ahead and along the frontal boundary. In the wake of the front,
expect moderate to strong offshore winds and building seas. Small
Craft Exercise Caution flags and Small Craft Advisories will be in
effect through Wednesday night. A reinforcing dry front is expected
Thursday night and winds reach Caution levels at times Friday
morning. Moderate northeast to east winds with periods of unsettled
weather are a possibility this weekend as a coastal trough
develops. 24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 75 53 64 39 / 80 20 20 0
Houston (IAH) 77 57 66 42 / 90 60 30 0
Galveston (GLS) 73 61 67 52 / 60 60 60 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk through this afternoon for TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through this afternoon for
GMZ330-335-350-355.

Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 6 AM CST early this
morning for GMZ370-375.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for GMZ370-375.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...41
MARINE...24

[Cpv17]

Sounds like 57 is slowly getting onboard.

[DoctorMu]

00z Euro is very cold with a winter storm developing in the state

Euro has an ice storm on the 22nd.

Is it showing an ice storm for the entire state?

The northern half was snow.

[DoctorMu]

Euro has an ice storm on the 22nd.

Is it showing an ice storm for the entire state?

The Euro has an ice storm over southeast Texas but it’s all freezing rain. The models aren’t showing much cold for southeast Texas. Record breaking temps for Kansas and Oklahoma. However, don’t expect a record breaking event in southeast Texas. Keep watching

That's what an ice storm is - freezing rain. We used to get them nearly every year in North CArolina.

[brazoriatx]

No point in looking at precip type yet in all honesty..we need the cold first

[DoctorMu]

The Euro has an ice storm over southeast Texas but it’s all freezing rain.

Got it. You’re saying the 00z Euro is showing an ice storm over SETX.

Correct.

Models underestimating temps IMO. If those highs verify and the snowpack that is already being laid down right now is as deep as they say, those temps will end up being an easy 7-10 colder.

Yes - with an icepack, the cold air will over perform. Colder, faster, deeper.

[DoctorMu]

Update from Jeff:

Strong storm system is progressing into the plains this morning with a cold front moving across TX.

Potentially significant arctic air intrusion into the US next week.

Today/Wednesday:
Warm and humid air mass over the region with gusty southerly flow this morning ahead of a cold front that will move across the area this afternoon and evening. Air mass will become increasingly unstable early this afternoon and as the front arrive into the area mid afternoon showers and thunderstorms will develop along and ahead of the boundary. Some of the storms could become severe mainly east of I-45 where dynamics will be best. All severe modes will be possible (large hail, damaging winds, and an isolated tornado). Front slows near the coast this evening and this will likely linger showers into the morning hours on Wednesday ahead of the 850mb front. Drier air mass then filters in on Wednesday and the warmth and humidity of recent weeks will be over.

Generally seasonal weather late week with lows in the 40’s and highs in the low 60’s.

Weekend:
Guidance solutions continue to struggle with the formation of a coastal trough/low over the NW Gulf late Friday into the weekend. The GFS/CMC keep this feature well offshore along with most of the rainfall, while the ECWMF is closer to the coast and spreads rainfall across the area. Will increase clouds from SW to NE starting Friday night and keep rain chances confined closer to the coast for Saturday with a nod toward the offshore coastal development. Temperatures will be cool through this period, but warm enough to keep everything liquid. Should the ECWMF end up being correct, the forecast for this weekend will need to raise rain chances.

Next Week:
Almost all of the focus will be with a potential major arctic air intrusion into the US starting early next week. Upper air pattern will result in a building Alaskan ridge which will help to dislodge extremely cold Siberian air (currently -55 to -75F) and send this air mass over the Arctic Ocean and in the general direction of NW Canada. As this air mass moves into NW Canada an impressive 1055-1070mb arctic surface high pressure dome forms and begins to drop southward toward the Montana border early next week. Extremely cold air is dislodged and begins to move southward with widespread -40 to -50 F into SW Canada and approaching the US border. Upper air pattern then supports this air mass being unleashed into the US early to mid next week. IF model solutions are correct and a 1060-1065mb high is located near the Montana border early next week, there will be little to stop the incredibly dense air mass from pouring southward down the plains.

Since we are still talking in the day 7-9 range for any impacts in the southern plains, will follow the ensemble mean of the GFS, CMC, and ECWMF which all show below to well below normal temperatures starting as early as the 22nd and lasting through the 26/27th. I strongly caution against individual model runs showing various winter storm events as there has been little consistency from run to run and between the different models.

The biggest questions at this point is how cold of an air mass builds into NW Canada this weekend, how much of this cold air comes as far south as TX, does this air mass modify any as it moves southward, will there be any winter precipitation next week. The answers to these questions will reveal themselves over the next few days. My advice at this point is to closely monitor forecasts for next week and be prepared to take cold weather protective actions if that need becomes a reality.

Jeff Lindner
Director Hydrologic Operations Division/Meteorologist
Harris County Flood Control District

Just like we drew it up.

[DoctorMu]

REST IN PEACE MIKE LEACH!

Ugh. Heartbroken

It is a sad day for us Tech alums. He was one of a kind.

*^&%$^$#$$*^%#&^$^%$!!!!

One of one.

[DoctorMu]

Sounds like 57 is slowly getting onboard.

The ship has sailed.