February Weather Discussion. Wild Winter Storms?

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Mr. T
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wxdata wrote: Now Tyler, we love you sooooo much! :mrgreen:
Awww

I think I get easily annoyed too much. People have opinions, and so do I. I should probably realize that whatever happens, well, happens... I don't have any control over it. I mean, I have control over what I wear, what I eat, and the TV remote, but the weather just sort of does what it wants, kind of like a dog or Paris Hilton.

I mean, this isn't China, you know? We just can't control the weather, or else I'm sure plenty of people would have it snow 50" a year, here...
Andrew wrote:Haha no I am with you I have been in the same situation especially during Hurricane season. I do agree with you that we will see snow I just hope it is like December 4th for me.
Me too, dude
TexasMetBlake
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So I've decided to stay up for the discussion. I'll just study while I wait...
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When does it come out?
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The discussion *SHOULD* be out by 330 or 4am. If any Winter Storm Watches are hoisted, it *SHOULD* be visible before the discussion.
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Mr. T
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ticka1 wrote:When does it come out?
It varies...

Sometimes 3:30 am, sometimes 5 am.
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WOWZERS! Winter Storm Watches are about to be posted I bet. They just updated the forecast for CLL. 90% chance of snow on Tuesday!
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Snow is now in the forecast to the coast...be watching for the advisories!
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Mr. T
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ALL snow now being forecasted here for tuesday night. Snow added all the way into Galveston.
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Mr. T
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The 6z GFS came in slightly colder again, and looks more like the CMC and Ukie models now...
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Mr. T
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GREAT discussion. Thank you #43! Love the beginning....

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
355 AM CST MON FEB 22 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER TO AFFECT THE NORTHERN THIRD OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING...


.DISCUSSION...
DID YOU ENJOY THE 70S TODAY? ENJOY THE CALM BEFORE STORM. A COLD
FRONT HAS CROSSED THE COAST AND HAS CLEARED OUT THE STUBBORN SEA
FOG PLAGUING THE COAST. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL PERSIST TODAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. WRAP AROUND CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THIS MORNING
BEFORE DISSIPATING AROUND MID DAY LEAVING SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY.
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A POTENT
SHORT WAVE THAT WILL APPROACH SOUTHEAST TEXAS ON TUESDAY.

ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...AS THE S/WV APPROACHES...IT WILL
TAP INTO THE MOISTURE REMAINING OVER THE REGION. COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNINGS FRONT. AS
PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO FALL...EVAPORATIVE COOLING OF THE COLUMN
WILL ENSUE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A BIT OF DRY AIR AROUND 900 MB
SO ONCE PRECIP BEGINS TO FALL...SO WILL THE TEMPERATURES. ALL MODELS
ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW 0 C NORTH OF A
CALDWELL TO TRINITY LINE BY AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL START IN THE
MORNING BUT QUICKLY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW. A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR AREAS NORTH OF A BRENHAM TO LIVINGSTON LINE FOR TUESDAY.
HAVE BUMPED POPS UPWARD AREA WIDE FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LOCAL
POLICIES DICTATE THAT A WINTER STORM WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN 2 OR
MORE INCHES OF SNOW IS FORECAST. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT 2 TO
4 INCHES OF SNOW WILL FALL NORTH OF A BRENHAM TO LIVINGSTON LINE.

THERE ARE MANY UNCERTAINTIES WITH THIS SYSTEM. AM RATHER CONCERNED
THAT CONVECTIVE BANDING COULD SET UP FROM BRYAN TO CROCKETT...
SIMILAR TO WHAT HAPPENED IN DFW A FEW WEEKS AGO. :!: :!:
THIS WOULD BUMP
SNOW TOTALS UP SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE EXTREME NORTH. WHERE DOES
THE RAIN SNOW LINE SET UP? AM CONCERNED THAT MONTGOMERY AND
NORTHWESTERN HARRIS COUNTIES MAY GET ACCUMULATING SNOW LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHICH IS SOONER THAN MODELS SUGGEST.
MODELS
INDICATE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
THE RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW IN HOUSTON AND THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL
FOR MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ON GRASSY SURFACES AS FAR SOUTH AS THE
I-10 CORRIDOR
. COULD EVEN GET A RAIN SNOW MIX ALL THE WAY TO THE
COAST. UPPER FLOW QUICKLY BECOMES CONFLUENT BY 09Z WEDNESDAY AND
THE PRECIP SHOULD SHUT DOWN RATHER QUICKLY.

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BRAZOS...BURLESON...GRIMES...
HOUSTON...MADISON...MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...
TRINITY...WALKER...WASHINGTON.

Second winter storm watch of the year for the HGX CWA!
Last edited by Mr. T on Mon Feb 22, 2010 4:53 am, edited 3 times in total.
TexasMetBlake
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A WINTER STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE AREA...COUNTIES INCLUDING..

FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BRAZOS...BURLESON...GRIMES...
HOUSTON...MADISON...MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...
TRINITY...WALKER...WASHINGTON.
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Mr. T
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Candy Cane wrote:A WINTER STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE AREA...COUNTIES INCLUDING..

FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BRAZOS...BURLESON...GRIMES...
HOUSTON...MADISON...MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...
TRINITY...WALKER...WASHINGTON.
Maybe we should get some sleep now, lol
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Mr. T
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I will luckily be free tuesday evening. I'm considering driving north towards CLL if the heavy bands of snow do develop... But that will be a nowcast decision. If we start seeing accumulation here, I won't.
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Mr. T
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If accumulating snow occurs at IAH on tuesday/wednesday, it will be only the 4th time two accumulating snow events have officially been recorded in the Houston area in the same season since the late 1880s.

They are:
Dec 28, 1925: 0.4"
Jan 26, 1926: 0.8"

Jan 11, 1973: 2.0"
Feb 9-10, 1973: 1.4"
Feb 17-18, 1973: 1.4"

Jan 2, 1985: 1.0"
Feb 1, 1985: 0.3"

Earlier this winter, December 4th, 2009, IAH recieved 1" of snow. This was the earliest snow on record. The previous record was the Dec 10th storm a year before. If it does snow on tuesday, it will be the second latest snowfall reported on record, behind March 11, 1932 (0.8").

Houston officially went from Feb 1994 to Dec 2008 (almost 15 years!) without accumulating snowfall. The only occurance of a trace of snow was during Xmas of 04. The 1.4" on Dec 10th, 2008 was the first 1" or more event since 1989. We could potentially have three accumulating snow events of 1" or more literally within just over a year of each other
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don
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GFS keeps getting more and more aggressive...

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Do any of you pros have a snow/sleet line in mind yet for Harris County? Do you think any of the frozen precip will make it down to the I-10 corridor? Do you have a time frame in mind as to when we may look out and see anything "white" falling from the sky, IF we are going to have any at all?
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jabcwb2 wrote:Do any of you pros have a snow/sleet line in mind yet for Harris County? Do you think any of the frozen precip will make it down to the I-10 corridor? Do you have a time frame in mind as to when we may look out and see anything "white" falling from the sky, IF we are going to have any at all?
Depends what you mean. Snow accumulating? Probably not south of I-10 (but can't absolutely rule it out). Snow falling from sky about anywhere? Sure, there's a fair chance of that. It'll be later on this afternoon before we have a better idea if and where any snow might accumulate.
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Thank you...my military son is arriving today after having spent a year in a "desert". Would LOVE for him to see even a trace fall. I am certain he will enjoy just a temp cool down! We are in the Hooks airport area.
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Mr. T
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jabcwb2 wrote:Do any of you pros have a snow/sleet line in mind yet for Harris County? Do you think any of the frozen precip will make it down to the I-10 corridor? Do you have a time frame in mind as to when we may look out and see anything "white" falling from the sky, IF we are going to have any at all?
The latest snowfall map from HGX shows accumulating snow possible for everyone but the immediate coast.
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