randybpt wrote:I agree mr t im looking at forecast around the area.north of 105 and temps.woulld have to bust by 20 degrees just to get close to ha ring snow. Lot of wishcasting. This is just going to be an ordinary january cold front. Nothing bitter. No freezing temps for.days we may not even get a hard.freeze. just another long range model tease WE ALL FELL FOR AGAIN...
Temps in the 20's and high barely making it out of the 30's is not normal. Any precip is just wishcasting at this point. Temps are pretty speculative at this point also. We don't even have the cold weather in Canada yet. A hard freeze is looking likely at this point and we just don't know about precip.
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randybpt wrote:This is just going to be an ordinary january cold front. Nothing bitter. No freezing temps for.days we may not even get a hard.freeze. just another long range model tease WE ALL FELL FOR AGAIN...
Remember to look at the source regions. That is what Wxman 57 preaches all the time. That will tell all. As far as this weekend, yep, that shocked me. Maybe I am not seeing something ( of course, I am not a meteorologist), I was thinking this event was Monday onward, but hey the HGX guys are paid to know things we civilians do not. LOL
randybpt wrote:I agree mr t im looking at forecast around the area.north of 105 and temps.woulld have to bust by 20 degrees just to get close to ha ring snow. Lot of wishcasting. This is just going to be an ordinary january cold front. Nothing bitter. No freezing temps for.days we may not even get a hard.freeze. just another long range model tease WE ALL FELL FOR AGAIN...
Temps in the 20's and high barely making it out of the 30's is not normal. Any precip is just wishcasting at this point. Temps are pretty speculative at this point also. We don't even have the cold weather in Canada yet. A hard freeze is looking likely at this point and we just don't know about precip.
Something has to be leading HGX to forecasting a 70% chance of a wintry mix in our northern areas 4 days out. That's a pretty drastic move especially for our area, to have nothing to back it up with. If there's one thing I've learned during the many years I've been tracking weather in Southeast TX, it's that HGX is notorious for downplaying certain things and then completely changing the forecast when a storm actually does hit. I see it happen down here time and time again. I'm not getting my hopes up...but this rare behavior out of them has to account for something. They are the National Weather Service after all.
randybpt wrote:I agree mr t im looking at forecast around the area.north of 105 and temps.woulld have to bust by 20 degrees just to get close to ha ring snow. Lot of wishcasting. This is just going to be an ordinary january cold front. Nothing bitter. No freezing temps for.days we may not even get a hard.freeze. just another long range model tease WE ALL FELL FOR AGAIN...
We need to be positive and optimistic about this potential weather event, randybpt. This is only the fifth of this month and we still have until at least Sunday the ninth to get a much better notion on what everyone in Texas, especially southeast Tx, can anticipate with this feasible winter weather event.
The 18z GFS ensemble mean and of course the operational run have flipped much, much colder with the arctic front early next week compared to today's 12z model suite.
The 12z runs we saw today may have been a brief hiccup with the handling of this arctic air. I can recall last January that the GFS and Euro tried to show the arctic air and trough setup going east of here in the day 6 to 7 range, before finally coming back to reality (you can see this dicussion on the old KHOU forum). With 850s forecasted to fall to -7 and thickness values around 534, this is comparable to last January's values when we reached the teens... Tonight's 0z runs will be fun.
I don't think anyone in this CWA will see any snow this weekend, and I also disagree with HGX's notion of lows only falling to the "mid 30s" for Harris County next week. Even if the much warmer 12z GFS and Euro were to verify, we'd still see temperatures dropping into the mid or upper 20s.... Not sure why they went above guidance numbers for next week, and then inserting snow into the forecast when soundings do not support that.
Thank you all for all your diligence in tracking the weather for us. I just checked intellicast. That was disappointing. Is that a good source for seeing what we are looking at weather wise for the next few days?
Mr. T wrote:The 18z GFS ensemble mean and of course the operational run have flipped much, much colder with the arctic front early next week compared to today's 12z model suite.
The 12z runs we saw today may have been a brief hiccup with the handling of this arctic air. I can recall last January that the GFS and Euro tried to show the arctic air and trough setup going east of here in the day 6 to 7 range, before finally coming back to reality (you can see this dicussion on the old KHOU forum). With 850s forecasted to fall to -7 and thickness values around 534, this is comparable to last January's values when we reached the teens... Tonight's 0z runs will be fun.
I agree T. I remember those discussions last year.
jabcwb2 wrote:Thank you all for all your diligence in tracking the weather for us. I just checked intellicast. That was disappointing. Is that a good source for seeing what we are looking at weather wise for the next few days?
If memory serves, is that not computer generated? No human element involved? Or am I wrong?
randybpt wrote:I agree mr t im looking at forecast around the area.north of 105 and temps.woulld have to bust by 20 degrees just to get close to ha ring snow. Lot of wishcasting. This is just going to be an ordinary january cold front. Nothing bitter. No freezing temps for.days we may not even get a hard.freeze. just another long range model tease WE ALL FELL FOR AGAIN...
Temps in the 20's and high barely making it out of the 30's is not normal. Any precip is just wishcasting at this point. Temps are pretty speculative at this point also. We don't even have the cold weather in Canada yet. A hard freeze is looking likely at this point and we just don't know about precip.
Interesting. Looks like Tim Heller disagrees with HGX and some of the models, calling for all rain on Sunday for the whole area...nothing frozen. HGX still says wintry mix possible north.
Mr. T wrote:I don't think anyone in this CWA will see any snow this weekend, and I also disagree with HGX's notion of lows only falling to the "mid 30s" for Harris County next week. Even if the much warmer 12z GFS and Euro were to verify, we'd still see temperatures dropping into the mid or upper 20s.... Not sure why they went above guidance numbers for next week, and then inserting snow into the forecast when soundings do not support that.
I agree for the snow this weekend. I was talking about the possibility of snow with next weeks event but snow this weekend just doesn't look like it will happen.
Well as wxman has been saying the Houston weather service does not like to forecast extreme temps this far out. I am sure the temps will come down as time goes on.
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wxman666 wrote:Interesting. Looks like Tim Heller disagrees with HGX and some of the models, calling for all rain on Sunday for the whole area...nothing frozen. HGX still says wintry mix possible north.
Do you have a link I couldn't find it on the site?
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wxman666 wrote:Interesting. Looks like Tim Heller disagrees with HGX and some of the models, calling for all rain on Sunday for the whole area...nothing frozen. HGX still says wintry mix possible north.
Do you have a link I couldn't find it on the site?
On a further note...HGX stated in their 8 o'clock discussion that the forecast looks on track and no update will be needed tonight. Clearly they are happy with the current forecast right now, which continues to portray a wintry mess for some of the area.
... got it thanks!
