Belmer wrote:Looks like recon is even finding lower pressure... 996mb. Harvey is definitely strengthening quickly tonight. Models not picking up on this or the further north movement.
I mean, I guess the 3km NAM did
Fair... hmm, better wording? Most reliable models didn't pick up on this! Definitely lower pressure and further north though than what models had for at this time. 12z model runs should be interesting.
Go look at the 06z 3km NAM. Setting records. Not posting it here because people could get confused about how poor of a model it is for this.
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RECON Missions today. Note that the Global Hawk is flying around 55,000 - 65,000 FT right now in a 24 hour long High Altitude sampling Mission. all these assets will certainly help the deterministic and statistical guidance improve over the next 24 to 48 hours.
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT WED 23 AUGUST 2017
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 24/1100Z TO 25/1100Z AUGUST 2017
TCPOD NUMBER.....17-084
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION HARVEY
FLIGHT ONE -- NOAA 42 FLIGHT TWO -- N0AA 49
A. 24/1800Z A. 25/0000Z
B NOAA2 1409A HARVEY B. NOAA9 1509A HARVEY
C. 24/1400Z C. 24/1730Z
D. 24.5N 94.4W D. NA
E. 24/1600Z TO 24/2130Z E. NA
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT
FLIGHT THREE -- TEAL 71 FLIGHT FOUR -- TEAL 72
A. 24/2330Z,24/0530Z A. 25/0900Z,1200Z,1500Z
B AFXXX 1609A HARVEY B. AFXXX 1709A HARVEY
C. 24/2130Z C. 25/0700Z
D. 25.2N 94.9W D. 26.3N 95.6W
E. 24/2300Z TO 25/0530Z E. 25/0830Z TO 25/1500Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 3-HRLY FIXES IF
SYSTEM REMAINS A THREAT.
3. REMARKS: THE GLOBAL HAWK (NA872) IS FLYING A 24.5 HR
FLIGHT OVER HARVEY TODAY. TAKEOFF TIME WAS SCHEDULED
FOR 23/1400Z. ALTITUDE 55,000 TO 65,000 FT.
ANTICIPATING 78 DROPS.
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Andrew wrote:Go look at the 06z 3km NAM. Setting records. Not posting it here because people could get confused about how poor of a model it is for this.
So look's like Wilma's long lost cousin wants to pay a visit to Brownsville...
Agree though, not wise to post that. There is just no way that is plausible. 3km NAM needs to just sit this one out and come back in about two weeks when Harvey is 'hopefully' long gone.
A quick look at the synoptic pattern over Untied States suggest that frontal boundary has pulled up stationary roughly along and just N of the I-10 Corridor across Texas. A deep Eastern trough continues to develop as a strong shortwave drops out of Canada into the Great Lakes Region as seen on Water Vapor Imagery. The pesky Upper Low that was meandering across the Gulf and actually play a big role in assisting Harvey to regenerate has filled in setting the stage for a COL or weakness (trough/shear axis) between the Western Ridge over Arizona and NE Gulf of Mexico High Pressure that collapses the steering flow for Harvey over Texas. A combination of all those features are setting the stage for a Major Weather Event for our Region. Today is the day to finalize your Hurricane Action Plans and complete your food/water/medication/necessities replenishment to last at least 5 days.
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stormlover wrote:Do y'all think we see a east shift ??
It is very well possible. But NHC is usually conservative when it comes to track changes. May not see a track change at 4am, but if models continue the trend back east again, maybe by the 11am update they very well could nudge it back. Also have to account that Harvey is further north than expected. Lot to take in. The package they put out soon will be telling!
Just Updated Weather Prediction Center 7 Day Quantitative Precipitation Forecast has dramatically increased suggest 20+ inches of rainfall is likely for our Region.
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Tropical Storm Harvey Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
400 AM CDT Thu Aug 24 2017
NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunter planes have been sampling
Harvey during the past few hours. Both aircraft indicate that
Harvey is becoming better organized and the central pressure is
falling. An average of the flight-level winds and the SFMR yield an
initial intensity of 40 kt. There are some unconfirmed reports of
stronger winds at flight-level to the northeast of the center,
but I am waiting for the plane to go back to that area for
confirmation.
It appears that the environment has finally become favorable
and all of the guidance calls for intensification. In fact, the
Rapid Intensification Index is up to 45 percent. The current NHC
forecast is a little lower than the model consensus to maintain
continuity from the previous advisory. If the current intensity
trend continues, the winds will have to be adjusted upward
in the next advisory.
The initial motion is toward the north or 360 degrees at 9 kt.
However, this is a combination of motion and reformation under the
convection. Harvey is already on the western edge of the
subtropical ridge extending from the Atlantic westward across the
Gulf of Mexico. This pattern will steer the cyclone on a general
northwest to north-northwest track for the next 2 to 3 days. Once
Harvey makes landfall in Texas, most of the global models predict
that the steering currents will collapse and Harvey will begin to
meander over Texas and perhaps will move back into the northwestern
Gulf of Mexico.
Key Messages:
1. Harvey is likely to bring multiple hazards, including heavy
rainfall, storm surge, and possible hurricane conditions to portions
of the Texas coast beginning on Friday.
2. Heavy rainfall is likely to spread across portions of eastern
Texas, Louisiana, and the lower Mississippi Valley from Friday
through early next week and could cause life-threatening flooding.
Please refer to products from your local National Weather Service
office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center for more information
on the flooding hazard.
3. A Storm Surge Warning is now effect from Port Mansfield to
San Luis Pass, Texas, indicating the possibility of life-threatening
inundation from rising water moving inland from the coast during the
next 36 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, see the Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic at hurricanes.gov.
4. The Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map is available on the NHC
website. This product depicts a reasonable worst-case scenario -
the amount of inundation that has a 10 percent chance of being
exceeded at each individual location. Because the Flooding Map is
based on inputs that extend out only to about 72 hours, it best
represents the flooding potential in those locations within the
watch area.
stormlover wrote:So Belmer is farther north than already expected ? Is that due to center relocation? Sorry for asking these questions ?
Don't be sorry. Good question! Late yesterday evening a large area of convection formed just a bit to the north of Harvey's center, thus caused lower pressure. The center then essentially moved under that convection. It wasn't a drastic move northward, but enough where it could change the track a little bit. 50 miles north or south where Harvey makes landfall could alter the forecast a lot as far as rain/wind/surge. Here is what the NHC said about the relocation in the 4:00AM advisory -
"The initial motion is toward the north or 360 degrees at 9 kt.
However, this is a combination of motion and reformation under the
convection."
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Harvey Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
400 AM CDT Thu Aug 24 2017
...HARVEY FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...
...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO MATAGORDA...
SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.2N 92.8W
ABOUT 425 MI...680 KM SSE OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS
ABOUT 370 MI...600 KM SE OF PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
-------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
A Storm Surge Warning has been issued for the Texas coast from Port
Mansfield to San Luis Pass.
A Storm Surge Watch has been issued from Port Mansfield south to
the Mouth of the Rio Grande.
A Hurricane Warning has been issued for the Texas coast from Port
Mansfield to Matagorda.
A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued from north of Matagorda
to High Island Texas
A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch has been issued from
south of Port Mansfield to the Mouth of the Rio Grande.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Port Mansfield to San Luis Pass
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* South of Port Mansfield to the Mouth of the Rio Grande
* North of San Luis Pass to High Island
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Port Mansfield to Matagorda
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Matagorda to High Island
* South of Port Mansfield to the Mouth of the Rio Grande
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* South of Port Mansfield to the Mouth of the Rio Grande
A Tropical Storm Watch is effect for...
* South of the Mouth of the Rio Grande, Texas to Boca de Catan
Mexico.
A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.
A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
In addition, interests in southwestern Louisiana
should continue to monitor the progress of this system.
For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside
the United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Harvey was
located by reconaissance planes near latitude 23.2 North, longitude
92.8 West. Harvey is moving toward the north near 10 mph (17 km/h).
A track toward the northwest or north-northwest at a faster forward
speed is expected for the next 48 hours. On the forecast track,
Harvey will approach the southern Texas coast on Friday.
Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft report
that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75
km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast
during the next 48 hours and Harvey is expected to become a
hurricane by Friday.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from NOAA and
Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 995 mb (29.39 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Harvey is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
10 to 15 inches and isolated maximum amounts of 25 inches over the
Texas coast through next Wednesday. During the same time period
Harvey is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 9
inches along its outer radius including parts of south, central, and
eastern Texas and the lower Mississippi Valley. Rainfall from Harvey
may cause life-threatening flooding.
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is
expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...
Port Mansfield to San Luis Pass...5 to 7 ft
San Luis Pass to High Island...2 to 4 ft
Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port Mansfield...2 to 4 ft
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the northeast of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and
can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to
your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.
WIND: Hurricane conditions are likely within the hurricane
warning area late Friday or Friday night, with tropical storm
conditions possible by Friday.
SURF: Swells generated by Harvey are likely to affect the Texas,
Louisiana, and northeast Mexico coasts by Friday. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.
$$
Forecaster Avila/Zelinsky
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Track actually shifted back towards CC Bay. Still think with the adjustment last night the 6z runs will show a small bias up the coast. Then again all the data ingested from last night may hold serve.
Track actually shifted back towards CC Bay. Still think with the adjustment last night the 6z runs will show a small bias up the coast. Then again all the data ingested from last night may hold serve.
My hunch is the Track will be adjusted up the Coast with the next Full Package. The Final first landfall location is still fluid, in my humble opinion.
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Track actually shifted back towards CC Bay. Still think with the adjustment last night the 6z runs will show a small bias up the coast. Then again all the data ingested from last night may hold serve.
My hunch is the Track will be adjusted up the Coast with the next Full Package. The Final first landfall location is still fluid, in my humble opinion.
Possible. So far the 6z run is only slightly e of the 0z. Most of that is from the relocation...
Track actually shifted back towards CC Bay. Still think with the adjustment last night the 6z runs will show a small bias up the coast. Then again all the data ingested from last night may hold serve.
My hunch is the Track will be adjusted up the Coast with the next Full Package. The Final first landfall location is still fluid, in my humble opinion.
Possible. So far the 6z run is only slightly e of the 0z. Most of that is from the relocation...
And a Major Hurricane...
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