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Cpv17 wrote: ↑Sat Aug 21, 2021 3:25 pm

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Sat Aug 21, 2021 3:21 pm DoctorMu IMO , most likely between Mexico and Texas is the greatest concern for a landfall, at least thats what the operational model runs and ensemble members are indicating, but ofc things can change, but im just going aith the consensus right now

That’s even if something develops. Still need to watch and wait if we actually have something to track. Right now there’s nothing really out there so the models don’t really have anything to initialize from.

DoctorMu wrote: ↑Sat Aug 21, 2021 5:11 pm Meanwhile, back at the ranch. Major heat wave is upon us through Wednesday and the first day with century mark temperature highs on College Station by Tuesday.

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Sat Aug 21, 2021 5:14 pm

DoctorMu wrote: ↑Sat Aug 21, 2021 5:11 pm Meanwhile, back at the ranch. Major heat wave is upon us through Wednesday and the first day with century mark temperature highs on College Station by Tuesday.

Don’t they usually say there’s a strong heatwave before a storm comes? Like the days leading up to it are usually really hot and dry?

DoctorMu wrote: ↑Sat Aug 21, 2021 5:45 pm

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Sat Aug 21, 2021 5:14 pm

DoctorMu wrote: ↑Sat Aug 21, 2021 5:11 pm Meanwhile, back at the ranch. Major heat wave is upon us through Wednesday and the first day with century mark temperature highs on College Station by Tuesday.

Don’t they usually say there’s a strong heatwave before a storm comes? Like the days leading up to it are usually really hot and dry?

That's during and after an organized tropical system typically east of us (e.g., Louisiana). Strong tropical storms and hurricanes have an upper high overhead that feeds the TC, but presses down on the atmosphere and on the periphery heats the atmosphere and inhibits showers from forming. We saw this in College Station last season as Laura and the Greek alphabet storms followed virtually the same path near Lake Charles. Also Ike produced wind and mega heat here but little rain as it moved up east of I-45.

This current heat was is due to the upper level ridge that would block steering currents from taking a new TC towards us. If that ridge moves east and a trough dips that the TC would move toward that gap. It's not caused by an approaching tropical system.

don wrote: ↑Sat Aug 21, 2021 6:46 pm 18z GFS ensembles are further north than the operational.

Scott747 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 10, 2021 7:08 am No surprises with a huge swing between the 6z and 0z GFS. It's went from a cat 3/4 into Corpus to a weak tropical storm around Tampico. It's still tracking the wave currently to the sw of the CV islands without any real intensification until the approach into the Caribbean and also having issues resolving another wave behind it.

We'll see if it continues to build some more consistency over the next few days or drops it. So far even with the usual swings in the long range I've been impressed with the upgrade of the GFS and its ensembles earlier this year.