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The western side of southeast Texas has been reaping the rewards the last couple of days. We need to hurry up with the rain moving our direction. Until this slop turns north, I'm pessimistic about our chances.

Recon may have found a low level center of circulation.

Cromagnum wrote: ↑Wed Jun 29, 2022 2:02 pm The western side of southeast Texas has been reaping the rewards the last couple of days. We need to hurry up with the rain moving our direction. Until this slop turns north, I'm pessimistic about our chances.

All I’ve gotten the past couple days is sprinkles and lots of thunder. My cousin in Wharton got an inch and a half though.

If the 12z NAM is right, a lot of us might make up our annual rainfall deficit. That seems about right. It all happens in one event.

I think the NHC will probably initiate PTC advisories after the recon mission is over, just my opinion though

From Wxman 57 at Storm 2K...

Looks like a broad, weak circulation in the NW Gulf. In the past, it would be ignored until it develops some organized convection around it. Today, who knows? FL winds below 25 kts. SFMR 25 to 28 kts. My vote is disturbance. Of course, if NHC calls it TD Two, then I get to work an extra hour or two. What would they call PTC Two, then? Change it to PTC Three? Probably not. NHC folks are probably debating that issue.

18Z Tropical Models.Decent uptake in models showing it getting to Tropical storm status also.As previous runs of the intensity models only had one member showing intensity above a tropical depression.

The 18z HRRR is not finished yet, but I am seeing some very heavy amounts of rain just offshore. Over 20 inches. Seems like the potential is increasing for some very heavy rain.

captainbarbossa19 yikes, definitely doesnt matter how dry we have been, that kind of rain fall would absolutely leas to flooding problems

18z HRRR with a closer look at rain fall totals, has a huge bullseye of 20-25 inches just off shore, that is definitely something to monitor

From Wxman57 at Storm2K...

In this case, IF the NHC decides to upgrade the broad weak low to a TD, it would be TD Three. I still say it doesn't qualify, and convection has diminished during the day. I already have an advisory typed and ready to go if NHC calls it a TD, though.

Recon so far has been unimpressive though that's not surprising. Definitely isn't a depression yet but could be close enough to begin PTC advisories. The latest set of obs might be enough. Should know in the next 30 min if they decide to go with a PTC.

Why can we not call it "Gulf Blob"? LOL I agree with you Scotty...who knows what they will do..

tireman4 wrote: ↑Wed Jun 29, 2022 3:41 pm Why can we not call it "Gulf Blob"? LOL I agree with you Scotty...who knows what they will do..

I think they will do nothing. However, I think that this blob is going to look much better tomorrow morning with DMAX.

Recon sent vortex message:

706
URNT12 KNHC 292024
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL952022
A. 29/19:27:10Z
B. 25.69 deg N 095.33 deg W
C. NA
D. EXTRAP 1014 mb
E. NA
F. NA
G. NA
H. 24 kt
I. 121 deg 42 nm 19:13:00Z
J. 178 deg 18 kt
K. 121 deg 44 nm 19:12:30Z
L. 25 kt
M. 309 deg 63 nm 19:48:30Z
N. 028 deg 25 kt
O. 308 deg 96 nm 20:00:00Z
P. 25 C / 129 m
Q. 26 C / 130 m
R. 24 C / NA
S. 134 / 01
T. 0.02 / 1 nm
U. AF300 01DDA INVEST OB 12
MAX FL WIND 25 KT 308 / 96 NM 20:00:00Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM BELOW 1500 FT
MAX FL TEMP 27 C 125 / 23 NM FROM FL CNTR

18z NAM 3km believes that heavy rain is likely well into SE Texas now. It shows parts of Montgomery County picking up to 10 inches of rain and a 5 inch plus corridor extending from Matagorda all the way to Madison and Houston Counties.

Yep it shows a training feeder band over the area.The HWRF and HMON also have been hinting at that.

don wrote: ↑Wed Jun 29, 2022 4:19 pm Yep it shows a training feeder band over the area.The HWRF and HMON also have been hinting at that.

Bring. It. On.

In waves that is.. Nobody needs 15" of rain in 6 hours!

Second pass/fix shows an ever so slight pressure drop. Definitely not enough to warrant an upgrade. Should get another pass or two but likely will have to wait for the mission tonight before there is any upgrade.

Scott747 what time is the mission scheduled for tonight?