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Re: January Weather Discussion. Severe Threat/Cold Blast Com
Posted: Wed Jan 05, 2011 9:19 pm
by Andrew
wxman666 wrote:Andrew wrote:wxman666 wrote:Interesting. Looks like Tim Heller disagrees with HGX and some of the models, calling for all rain on Sunday for the whole area...nothing frozen. HGX still says wintry mix possible north.
Do you have a link I couldn't find it on the site?
Sure.
http://abclocal.go.com/ktrk/video?id=7881973
I actually meant for HGX. If you could thanks.
Re: January Weather Discussion. Severe Threat/Cold Blast Com
Posted: Wed Jan 05, 2011 9:19 pm
by Mr. T
jabcwb2 wrote:Thank you all for all your diligence in tracking the weather for us. I just checked intellicast. That was disappointing. Is that a good source for seeing what we are looking at weather wise for the next few days?
I could talk about how it's automated and uses a special formula using the GFS and all that stuff, but I'll just keep it short and say "no"
Re: January Weather Discussion. Severe Threat/Cold Blast Com
Posted: Wed Jan 05, 2011 9:20 pm
by helloitsb
wxman666 wrote:On a further note...HGX stated in their 8 o'clock discussion that the forecast looks on track and no update will be needed tonight. Clearly they are happy with the current forecast right now, which continues to portray a wintry mess for some of the area.
can you link me to what you are looking at? I found the briefing from today not sure when that is from but it mentioned the wintry mix on Sunday.
Re: January Weather Discussion. Severe Threat/Cold Blast Com
Posted: Wed Jan 05, 2011 9:20 pm
by Mr. T
Andrew wrote:I agree for the snow this weekend. I was talking about the possibility of snow with next weeks event but snow this weekend just doesn't look like it will happen.
Well as wxman has been saying the Houston weather service does not like to forecast extreme temps this far out. I am sure the temps will come down as time goes on.
Oh, I agree with you too. My amatuer comments weren't pointed toward anyone in particular.
Re: January Weather Discussion. Severe Threat/Cold Blast Com
Posted: Wed Jan 05, 2011 9:22 pm
by wxman666
helloitsb wrote:wxman666 wrote:On a further note...HGX stated in their 8 o'clock discussion that the forecast looks on track and no update will be needed tonight. Clearly they are happy with the current forecast right now, which continues to portray a wintry mess for some of the area.
can you link me to what you are looking at? I found the briefing from today not sure when that is from but it mentioned the wintry mix on Sunday.
http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1
Sorry...I need to get better at remembering to provide links.
Re: January Weather Discussion. Severe Threat/Cold Blast Com
Posted: Wed Jan 05, 2011 9:22 pm
by helloitsb
wxman666 wrote:helloitsb wrote:wxman666 wrote:On a further note...HGX stated in their 8 o'clock discussion that the forecast looks on track and no update will be needed tonight. Clearly they are happy with the current forecast right now, which continues to portray a wintry mess for some of the area.
can you link me to what you are looking at? I found the briefing from today not sure when that is from but it mentioned the wintry mix on Sunday.
http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1
Sorry...I need to get better at remembering to provide links.
thanks!
Re: January Weather Discussion. Severe Threat/Cold Blast Com
Posted: Wed Jan 05, 2011 9:24 pm
by Andrew
Mr. T wrote:Andrew wrote:I agree for the snow this weekend. I was talking about the possibility of snow with next weeks event but snow this weekend just doesn't look like it will happen.
Well as wxman has been saying the Houston weather service does not like to forecast extreme temps this far out. I am sure the temps will come down as time goes on.
Oh, I agree with you too. My amatuer comments weren't pointed toward anyone in particular.
No I know I was just saying in general I expect the temps to drop. Like you said though 00z should be fun. I feel like a kid in a candy shop.
Re: January Weather Discussion. Severe Threat/Cold Blast Com
Posted: Wed Jan 05, 2011 9:28 pm
by Andrew
wxman666 wrote:helloitsb wrote:wxman666 wrote:On a further note...HGX stated in their 8 o'clock discussion that the forecast looks on track and no update will be needed tonight. Clearly they are happy with the current forecast right now, which continues to portray a wintry mess for some of the area.
can you link me to what you are looking at? I found the briefing from today not sure when that is from but it mentioned the wintry mix on Sunday.
http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1
Sorry...I need to get better at remembering to provide links.
thanks![/quote]
Here is what they said
A
CONCERN IS THE MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES THAT THE ECMWF IS
DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES AS THE LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS. GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS GETTING CLOSE TO A RAIN SNOW
MIX AND THE ECMWF IS LOOKING LIKE A SNOW AND RAIN MIX FOR THE
NORTHERN AREAS (CLL-UTS- LIVINGSTON) NORTHWARD ON SUNDAY. HAVE
OPTED TO ADD RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR THESE NORTHERN AREAS BUT SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL PRECLUDE ANY STICKING TO ROADWAYS BUT TREES AND
GRASSY AREAS MIGHT SEE A LITTLE ACCUMULATION.
Re: January Weather Discussion. Severe Threat/Cold Blast Com
Posted: Wed Jan 05, 2011 9:31 pm
by wxman666
Sorry...I guess I'm seeing a different update. I saw that this afternoon. Here is the current version...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
813 PM CST WED JAN 5 2011
.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FCST IS ON TRACK. NO UPDATE TONIGHT. 47
&&
Re: January Weather Discussion. Severe Threat/Cold Blast Com
Posted: Wed Jan 05, 2011 9:33 pm
by Andrew
wxman666 wrote:Sorry...I guess I'm seeing a different update. I saw that this afternoon. Here is the current version...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
813 PM CST WED JAN 5 2011
.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FCST IS ON TRACK. NO UPDATE TONIGHT. 47
&&
No I know this was the version before it was backing up what you said.
Also btw the GFS is running here is the link for anyone who wants to follow it:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... el_l.shtml
Re: January Weather Discussion. Severe Threat/Cold Blast Com
Posted: Wed Jan 05, 2011 9:36 pm
by Ptarmigan
Andrew wrote:
Temps in the 20's and high barely making it out of the 30's is not normal. Any precip is just wishcasting at this point. Temps are pretty speculative at this point also. We don't even have the cold weather in Canada yet. A hard freeze is looking likely at this point and we just don't know about precip.
They are rare events to begin with. There have been 56 instances of where the average temperature was 32 or lower with the lows in the 20's and highs in the 30's since 1969 at KIAH. The last time that happened was in January 2010. It happens on average about ever 0.75 years. Interesting to note a large gap from 1997 to 2010.
Code: Select all
Date Average Daily
1/7/1970 32
1/5/1972 31
1/10/1973 32
1/11/1973 29
1/12/1973 29
1/8/1976 31
1/10/1977 31
1/18/1977 32
1/10/1978 32
1/17/1978 30
1/19/1978 29
1/20/1978 25
1/21/1978 28
1/1/1979 31
1/2/1979 26
1/14/1979 32
2/11/1981 30
1/11/1982 23
1/13/1982 31
1/17/1982 32
2/6/1982 31
12/22/1983 27
12/23/1983 28
12/24/1983 21
12/25/1983 20
12/26/1983 25
12/29/1983 29
12/30/1983 31
1/19/1984 30
1/20/1984 32
1/21/1985 28
2/1/1985 25
2/2/1985 30
2/3/1985 32
1/8/1988 31
2/4/1989 26
2/5/1989 29
2/6/1989 27
2/7/1989 29
3/5/1989 32
12/16/1989 28
12/22/1989 24
12/23/1989 18
12/24/1989 27
12/22/1990 29
12/23/1990 27
12/24/1990 30
12/31/1990 29
2/2/1996 32
2/3/1996 32
2/4/1996 32
12/18/1996 32
1/13/1997 31
1/14/1997 32
1/8/2010 29
1/9/2010 32
Re: January Weather Discussion. Severe Threat/Cold Blast Com
Posted: Wed Jan 05, 2011 9:41 pm
by srainhoutx
It looks like the night crew will be active. Here's hoping for some agreement concerning this weekend and the Pacific Storm.
Re: January Weather Discussion. Severe Threat/Cold Blast Com
Posted: Wed Jan 05, 2011 9:45 pm
by Andrew
Ptarmigan wrote:Andrew wrote:
Temps in the 20's and high barely making it out of the 30's is not normal. Any precip is just wishcasting at this point. Temps are pretty speculative at this point also. We don't even have the cold weather in Canada yet. A hard freeze is looking likely at this point and we just don't know about precip.
They are rare events to begin with. There have been 56 instances of where the average temperature was 32 or lower with the lows in the 20's and highs in the 30's since 1969 at KIAH. The last time that happened was in January 2010. It happens on average about ever 0.75 years. Interesting to note a large gap from 1997 to 2010.
Code: Select all
Date Average Daily
1/7/1970 32
1/5/1972 31
1/10/1973 32
1/11/1973 29
1/12/1973 29
1/8/1976 31
1/10/1977 31
1/18/1977 32
1/10/1978 32
1/17/1978 30
1/19/1978 29
1/20/1978 25
1/21/1978 28
1/1/1979 31
1/2/1979 26
1/14/1979 32
2/11/1981 30
1/11/1982 23
1/13/1982 31
1/17/1982 32
2/6/1982 31
12/22/1983 27
12/23/1983 28
12/24/1983 21
12/25/1983 20
12/26/1983 25
12/29/1983 29
12/30/1983 31
1/19/1984 30
1/20/1984 32
1/21/1985 28
2/1/1985 25
2/2/1985 30
2/3/1985 32
1/8/1988 31
2/4/1989 26
2/5/1989 29
2/6/1989 27
2/7/1989 29
3/5/1989 32
12/16/1989 28
12/22/1989 24
12/23/1989 18
12/24/1989 27
12/22/1990 29
12/23/1990 27
12/24/1990 30
12/31/1990 29
2/2/1996 32
2/3/1996 32
2/4/1996 32
12/18/1996 32
1/13/1997 31
1/14/1997 32
1/8/2010 29
1/9/2010 32
Always coming through with the stats. Thanks Ptarmigan
Re: January Weather Discussion. Severe Threat/Cold Blast Com
Posted: Wed Jan 05, 2011 9:50 pm
by Andrew
NAM at hour 84 says rain and the cold air building in NW Canada
Re: January Weather Discussion. Severe Threat/Cold Blast Com
Posted: Wed Jan 05, 2011 9:54 pm
by wxman57
Cold air in Canada Sunday morning but not so cold in Texas.
Re: January Weather Discussion. Severe Threat/Cold Blast Com
Posted: Wed Jan 05, 2011 10:00 pm
by Ptarmigan
Andrew wrote:
Always coming through with the stats. Thanks Ptarmigan
Your welcome Andrew.
Re: January Weather Discussion. Severe Threat/Cold Blast Com
Posted: Wed Jan 05, 2011 10:01 pm
by srainhoutx
It looks like the Upper Low is a bit stronger so far, compared to the 18Z through 48 hours.
Re: January Weather Discussion. Severe Threat/Cold Blast Com
Posted: Wed Jan 05, 2011 10:02 pm
by Cleanupman
I dont post much here so what i say should be taken with a grain of salt, but i have been living here in Houston for 20+ years and this seems like a classic outbreak. If that high shows up on a real map i don't think there is much worry whether it comes south, its coming and with the snow pack over the rockies i don't see it loosing much punch. So looking at some of the maps its bringing real cold south then stops it, not gonna happen that cold will keep south into Mexico. Just kinda remembering the past what has happened. Thats my .02 people
Re: January Weather Discussion. Severe Threat/Cold Blast Com
Posted: Wed Jan 05, 2011 10:07 pm
by redneckweather
Good analysis cleanupman and I agree. The question is, how cold will the air actually be? Time will tell.
Keep the info coming guys...much appreciated.
Re: January Weather Discussion. Severe Threat/Cold Blast Com
Posted: Wed Jan 05, 2011 10:10 pm
by srainhoutx
Coastal low much stronger through 90 hours. Heavy rains/storms Saturday into Sunday from S TX up the Coast. E and NE winds, N of the rain in N and Central TX. MCS looks possible.