June 2022

[captainbarbossa19]

Second pass/fix shows an ever so slight pressure drop. Definitely not enough to warrant an upgrade. Should get another pass or two but likely will have to wait for the mission tonight before there is any upgrade.

Or even tomorrow morning. May have to wait for DMAX to do its thing.

[Cpv17]

18Z Tropical Models.Decent uptake in models showing it getting to Tropical storm status also.As previous runs of the intensity models only had one member showing intensity above a tropical depression.

Dang..that’s looking pretty good. If that verifies I would imagine even Victoria could even get a lil bit outta this.

[Scott747]

Scott747 what time is the mission scheduled for tonight?

Should depart around 1030 and first 'fix' will be about two or three hours later.

[captainbarbossa19]

Despite waning convection, vorticity for 95L has been steadily increasing throughout the day at 850 mb.

https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/ ... oom=&time=

[TexasBreeze]

The seabreeze is more active now. Nice east to west moving cells currently!

[don]

The WPC just tweeted this, they mention rainfall rates could be as high as 3-4" an hour.

[Stratton20]

That definitely could leading to some flooding with rain fall rates like that, the 00z mesoscale models will be very interesting

[davidiowx]

3”- 4” per hour rainfall rates will lead to flash flooding in areas where/if it happens. Especially if it’s in a band of training storms.

[Texashawk]

The WPC just tweeted this, they mention rainfall rates could be as high as 3-4" an hour.

I just have the feeling this is going to be significantly less than advertised. Seems like there’s not enough convection to bring a lot of rain in. Are they expecting significant development of convection before landfall?

[Ptarmigan]

3”- 4” per hour rainfall rates will lead to flash flooding in areas where/if it happens. Especially if it’s in a band of training storms.

Seen that before.............

[Cpv17]

The WPC just tweeted this, they mention rainfall rates could be as high as 3-4" an hour.

I just have the feeling this is going to be significantly less than advertised. Seems like there’s not enough convection to bring a lot of rain in. Are they expecting significant development of convection before landfall?

Wait till DMAX. We’re in DMIN right now.

[Cpv17]

Something I’ve noticed..

The tropical models are coming in further west than the mesoscale models. That could make a huge difference for some of us.

[davidiowx]

Something I’ve noticed..

The tropical models are coming in further west than the mesoscale models. That could make a huge difference for some of us.

Considering where the “LLC” is compared to yesterday, it’s not that surprising. I didn’t think it would get that far west but it has.

[don]

8pm update

1. Western Gulf of Mexico:
An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigated the low
pressure are over the western Gulf of Mexico this afternoon and
found a closed wind circulation. However, at this time the
associated shower and thunderstorm activity is too poorly organized
to designate the system as a tropical depression. This system is
forecast to move slowly westward and approach the coast of southern
Texas and northern Mexico by early Thursday. Some slow development
is still possible and it could become a short-lived tropical
depression near the coast before it turns northwestward and moves
inland over Texas later on Thursday. Regardless of development,
heavy rain will be possible along portions of the Texas coast for
the next few days. For more information about the potential for
heavy rain, please see products issued by your National Weather
Service office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

[jabcwb2]

Just wishing for more than 2 dozen raindrops in Tomball....

[Cpv17]

8pm update

1. Western Gulf of Mexico:
An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigated the low
pressure are over the western Gulf of Mexico this afternoon and
found a closed wind circulation. However, at this time the
associated shower and thunderstorm activity is too poorly organized
to designate the system as a tropical depression. This system is
forecast to move slowly westward and approach the coast of southern
Texas and northern Mexico by early Thursday. Some slow development
is still possible and it could become a short-lived tropical
depression near the coast before it turns northwestward and moves
inland over Texas later on Thursday. Regardless of development,
heavy rain will be possible along portions of the Texas coast for
the next few days. For more information about the potential for
heavy rain, please see products issued by your National Weather
Service office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

That’s interesting how they say it will make a NW turn instead of a N turn. That should give more of us a chance to see widespread totals.

[davidiowx]

8pm update

1. Western Gulf of Mexico:
An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigated the low
pressure are over the western Gulf of Mexico this afternoon and
found a closed wind circulation. However, at this time the
associated shower and thunderstorm activity is too poorly organized
to designate the system as a tropical depression. This system is
forecast to move slowly westward and approach the coast of southern
Texas and northern Mexico by early Thursday. Some slow development
is still possible and it could become a short-lived tropical
depression near the coast before it turns northwestward and moves
inland over Texas later on Thursday. Regardless of development,
heavy rain will be possible along portions of the Texas coast for
the next few days. For more information about the potential for
heavy rain, please see products issued by your National Weather
Service office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Well reading that would tell me the convection needs to stay way East of the center for our area to see decent rain. Could be the case given recent satellite presentation. Did not expect it to move to S. Texas and northern Mexico before turning NW..

[davidiowx]

Just wishing for more than 2 dozen raindrops in Tomball....

Lol. I’m down in the Richmond area and it’s rained everywhere except my house. Pretty frustrating.. heck, I had a good inch plus at work Monday and even looked like I got some at home per radar. Came home to dry grounds and nothing in the rain gauge.

[don]

8pm update

1. Western Gulf of Mexico:
An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigated the low
pressure are over the western Gulf of Mexico this afternoon and
found a closed wind circulation. However, at this time the
associated shower and thunderstorm activity is too poorly organized
to designate the system as a tropical depression. This system is
forecast to move slowly westward and approach the coast of southern
Texas and northern Mexico by early Thursday. Some slow development
is still possible and it could become a short-lived tropical
depression near the coast before it turns northwestward and moves
inland over Texas later on Thursday. Regardless of development,
heavy rain will be possible along portions of the Texas coast for
the next few days. For more information about the potential for
heavy rain, please see products issued by your National Weather
Service office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Well reading that would tell me the convection needs to stay way East of the center for our area to see decent rain. Could be the case given recent satellite presentation. Did not expect it to move to S. Texas and northern Mexico before turning NW..

That's not what they are saying.. The storm is already close to the South Texas coast and will continue to near the coast before taking a turn to the north tomorrow as it will feel a weakness in the ridge.Notice they said "approach" and not landfall on the south Texas coast.Landfall will be Thursday afternoon or evening along the middle Texas coast. Forecast matches well with the map i made a few days ago... Models have been showing this track most of the week now.Nothing has changed.

[captainbarbossa19]

8pm update

Well reading that would tell me the convection needs to stay way East of the center for our area to see decent rain. Could be the case given recent satellite presentation. Did not expect it to move to S. Texas and northern Mexico before turning NW..

That's not what they are saying.. The storm is already close to the South Texas coast and will continue to near the coast before taking a turn to the north tomorrow as it will feel a weakness in the ridge.Notice they said "approach" and not landfall on the south Texas coast.Landfall will be Thursday afternoon or evening along the middle Texas coast. Forecast matches well with the map i made a few days ago... Models have been showing this track most of the week now.Nothing has changed.

I agree with don. Nothing has changed except that rainfall forecasts for inland areas are increasing.