May 2015 Record Setting May Rainfall Totals For Region

[tireman4]

From Steve McCauley's Facebook page:

https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid ... =1&theater

[Texaspirate11]

From Steve McCauley's Facebook page:

https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid ... =1&theater

It says its not available.

[tireman4]

This is the same (well showing the same items)....

https://www.facebook.com/HellerWeather/ ... =1&theater

[srainhoutx]

Water Vapor imagery suggests a shortwave nearing the Big Bend is firing off strong storms across the Panhandle extending S to the Sierra Madre mountains of Mexico West of Monterrey. Storms are developing across the Hill Country and the Western areas of SE Texas with many tropical funnels having been reported near the Austin area. The airmass continues to destabilize and we will need to monitor the storms to the NW as they may organize into a Mesoscale Convective System this evening and approach the Hill Country and possibly portions of SE Texas in the early morning hours of Friday.

[srainhoutx]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0829
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0342 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NM...MUCH OF SOUTHWEST/WEST TX

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 234...

VALID 282042Z - 282145Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 234 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...ALL SVR HAZARDS REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS TORNADO WATCH 234.
PRIMARY THREAT SHOULD TRANSITION TO DMGG WIND GUSTS INTO THE EARLY
EVENING.

DISCUSSION...A BROKEN LINE OF TSTMS WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS HAS SET
UP NEAR A REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ORIENTED SW-NE ACROSS NW
TX...WITH SRN PORTION OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY RECENTLY BECOMING MORE
PROGRESSIVE. THE TORNADO THREAT IS LIKELY MAXIMIZED NEAR THE
QUASI-STATIONARY PORTION OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS NW TX.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE MARGINAL DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...LARGE HAIL IS LIKELY
TO REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREAT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HRS.
EVENTUALLY...THE DMGG WIND THREAT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE/BECOME
DOMINANT INTO THE EARLY EVENING AS TSTMS CONGEAL INTO A LIKELY MCS
ACROSS NORTHWEST AND WEST-CENTRAL TX.

..ROGERS.. 05/28/2015


ATTN...WFO...OUN...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF...ABQ...

[srainhoutx]

Afternoon briefing from Jeff:

Rain chances will increase Friday…but starting to key in on late Saturday into Sunday for the potential for widespread heavy rainfall.

Tonight-Friday:
Thunderstorm complex which has already formed over W/NW TX will move ESE/SE toward SE TX tonight. A couple high resolution models favor this complex at least making it into the western sections of SE TX and then possibly into the Houston area. Not overly confident in the storms making it into Houston. Bigger concern is if these storms leave behind any sort of low level boundary to focus storms on Friday afternoon once surface temperature warm. These storms would be slow moving and likely produce heavy rainfall. A couple of factors are missing on Friday are sustained heavy rainfall including deep moisture and good upper level divergence aloft.

While heavy rainfall is possible on Friday it should remain isolated to scattered and generally unorganized.

Late Saturday-Sunday:

Heavy rainfall possible.

Factors appear to be slowly coming together to produce another round of slow moving thunderstorms with potentially heavy rainfall late Saturday into Sunday. This includes a slow moving/stalling frontal boundary, deeper moisture levels, and upper level divergence aloft. These are all keys pointing toward another heavy rainfall and potential flash flood event. Expect thunderstorms to develop along the front overnight and gradually move into and across SE TX. The slowing of the frontal boundary does suggest some threat for cell training (what hurt us so bad Monday night/Tuesday morning) and higher rainfall rates than Friday. Moisture levels certainly increase which does support those high hourly rainfall rates which can really impact the urban areas.

Best estimate at the moment will be for widespread 1-3 inches Saturday and Sunday with isolated totals possibly up to 5 inches. Rainfall of this magnitude will cause additional flooding with wet grounds and watersheds high flooding will be possible.

A flash flood watch will likely be require at some point over the weekend.

Will update again tomorrow morning.

[mckinne63]

This makes me really mad. Folks are losing their homes and these idiots are setting up lawnchairs to go fishing.

[Katdaddy]

A nice evening across SE TX but a complex of severe storms are moving across NTX toward the Dallas-Ft areas. The satellite is quite impressive showing the large storm complex over NW TX as well as storms firing over Mexico SW of the Rio Grande. The weekend is looking active with a heavy rain threat late Saturday into Sunday across SE TX but for now enjoy another beautiful evening.

[texoz]

The current line of T-storms stretches from central OK to past Big Bend. One of the more impressive lines of t-storms I've seen in a while.

[srainhoutx]

From Nesdis:

SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 05/29/15 0204Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-EAST:0145Z KC/JS
.
LOCATION...TEXAS/S OKLAHOMA...
.
ATTN WFOS...TSA...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...MAF...
ATTN RFCS...LMRFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...
.
NESDIS IS CONTINUING TO ACCEPT APPEALS ON THE RETIREMENT OF THE SPENES
PRODUCT. APPEALS CAN BE SUBMITTED BY EMAILING JOHN.SIMKO@NOAA.GOV
.
EVENT...UPDATED TO PREVIOUS SPENES MESSAGES NOW FOR LINEAR MCS FROM S
OK TO SW TX.
.
SATELLITE TRENDS AND OUTLOOK... SATELLITE ANIMATION NOW SHOWS A
CONSOLIDATED IMPRESSIVE LINEAR MCS OVER A LARGE REGION FROM S OK TO
SW TX WITH ENTIRE LINE NOW PROGRESSIVE FROM EXPANSIVE COLD POOL. IT IS
JUST NOW ENTERING AN AXIS OF RELATIVELY GREATER INSTABILITY JUST TO ITS
E AND SE PER GOES SOUNDER ANIMATION WITH CAPE VALUES RANGING UP TO 5000+
J/KG. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR HEALTHY UPDRAFTS WITH WIDESPREAD COLD TOPS IN
IR IMAGERY AS WELL AS A NUMBER OF OVERSHOOTING TOPS IN THE LAST VISIBLE
IMAGES OF THE DAY. BETTER MOISTURE ALSO RESIDES JUST TO THE E AND SE OF
THE LINE WHERE PW VALUES OF 1.8" ACCORDING TO BLENDED TPW/GOES SOUNDER
ARE PRESENT ALONG WITH SFC DEWPOINTS NEAR AND ABOVE 70F. IN ADDITION, THE
LLJ HAS INCREASED JUST A BIT TO 25-30 KNOTS PER REGIONAL VAD PROFILERS
WITH SOME VERY SLIGHT DOWNSTREAM VEERING RECENTLY NOTED AHEAD OF THE
LINE. SO FAR, HAVE NOT SEEN ANY REAL UPSCALE GROWTH IN N CENT-NE TX IN
THE VICINITY OF OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHICH WAS MENTIONED AS A SLIGHT
POSSIBILITY IN EARLIER MESSAGE WHICH WOULD HAVE INCREASED THE CONCERN
FOR A MORE SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAIN THREAT. THIS LIKELY SUGGESTS THE OLD
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS LIKELY WASHED OUT. AT THIS POINT, DO NOT HAVE MUCH
OF AN INDICATION FOR ANY SPECIFIC LOCATION OF GREATER CONCERN ALONG THE
LINE EXCEPT FOR THE VERY LOCALIZED SPOTS WHERE A FEW LEAD CELLS DEVELOP
AND MERGE INTO THE LINE WHICH IS NOW OCCURRING NEAR THE RED RIVER AND
ESPECIALLY NOW OVER S CENT TX JUST N OF KJCT. HAVE DISCUSSED THE SITUATION
WITH THE WPC MPD FORECASTER WHO CONCURS WITH THERE NOT BEING A PARTICULAR
SPOT OF GREATER CONCERN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH THIS ADVANCING
LINE WITH PRIMARY THREAT CONTINUING TO BE FROM RELATIVELY BRIEF INTENSE
INSTANTANEOUS RAINFALL RATES TO AT LEAST 1.5"-2.0"/HR FALLING ON AREAS
OF MORE SATURATED GROUND.

[Paul Robison]

Afternoon briefing from Jeff:

Rain chances will increase Friday…but starting to key in on late Saturday into Sunday for the potential for widespread heavy rainfall.

Tonight-Friday:
Thunderstorm complex which has already formed over W/NW TX will move ESE/SE toward SE TX tonight. A couple high resolution models favor this complex at least making it into the western sections of SE TX and then possibly into the Houston area. Not overly confident in the storms making it into Houston. Bigger concern is if these storms leave behind any sort of low level boundary to focus storms on Friday afternoon once surface temperature warm. These storms would be slow moving and likely produce heavy rainfall. A couple of factors are missing on Friday are sustained heavy rainfall including deep moisture and good upper level divergence aloft.

While heavy rainfall is possible on Friday it should remain isolated to scattered and generally unorganized.

Late Saturday-Sunday:

Heavy rainfall possible.

Factors appear to be slowly coming together to produce another round of slow moving thunderstorms with potentially heavy rainfall late Saturday into Sunday. This includes a slow moving/stalling frontal boundary, deeper moisture levels, and upper level divergence aloft. These are all keys pointing toward another heavy rainfall and potential flash flood event. Expect thunderstorms to develop along the front overnight and gradually move into and across SE TX. The slowing of the frontal boundary does suggest some threat for cell training (what hurt us so bad Monday night/Tuesday morning) and higher rainfall rates than Friday. Moisture levels certainly increase which does support those high hourly rainfall rates which can really impact the urban areas.

Best estimate at the moment will be for widespread 1-3 inches Saturday and Sunday with isolated totals possibly up to 5 inches. Rainfall of this magnitude will cause additional flooding with wet grounds and watersheds high flooding will be possible.

A flash flood watch will likely be require at some point over the weekend.

Will update again tomorrow morning.

Has your confidence increased in that thunderstorm complex making it all the way to the Houston metro?

[srainhoutx]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0832
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0958 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF TX FROM THE RIO GRANDE TO THE RED RIVER

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 236...237...

VALID 290258Z - 290500Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
236...237...CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...AN EXTENSIVE LINE OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE EWD FROM THE RED
RIVER SWWD INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WITH MAINLY A DAMAGING WIND
THREAT.

DISCUSSION...TWO LINES OF STORMS MERGED ORIGINALLY OVER W CNTRL TX
THIS EVENING HAVE MERGED INTO A SINGLE LINE NOW EXTENDING FROM SRN
OK TO THE BIG BEND. WIDESPREAD 30-4O KT WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED WITH THE SURGING OUTFLOW...AND LOCALLY SEVERE GUSTS REMAIN
POSSIBLE.

SRN PORTIONS OF THE LINE CONTAIN MORE INTENSE CORES DUE TO STRONGER
INSTABILITY...WITH HAIL LIKELY. IN ADDITION...THESE STORMS OVER THE
HILL COUNTRY APPEAR TO BE ACCELERATING SEWD SUGGESTING A RELATIVELY
GREATER DAMAGING WIND THREAT. IF TRENDS CONTINUE...AN ADDITIONAL
WATCH MAY BE CONSIDERED DOWNSTREAM.

..JEWELL.. 05/29/2015


ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...HGX...FWD...OUN...CRP...EWX...SJT...

[srainhoutx]

Cloud tops continue to cool and expand suggesting the squall line will maintain its intensity into the I-35 Corridor. Worrisome to see bowing occurring N and W of San Antonio and Austin. Damaging wind threat may be increasing if this intensity continues over the hour or two.

[texoz]

A poster named Teco on another board astutely mentioned that the last thing our area (Austin to Houston) needs right now are high winds. Trees that normally can take 40-50 mph winds may fail and uproot due to the saturated soil.

[djjordan]

Currently sitting at 149 and the RR tracks just south of Montgomery and seeing how the inflow is interacting with this squall line. Getting concerned about convergence as this line marches east. Radar trends suggest a busy morning in SE Texas

[djjordan]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
320 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

TXC041-051-477-290915-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FA.Y.0121.150529T0820Z-150529T0915Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BURLESON TX-WASHINGTON TX-BRAZOS TX-
320 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
BURLESON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
CENTRAL WASHINGTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
WEST CENTRAL BRAZOS COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 415 AM CDT

* AT 319 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY RAIN DUE TO
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL CAUSE MINOR FLOODING IN THE ADVISORY AREA.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
BRENHAM...CALDWELL...SOMERVILLE...SNOOK...BURTON...LAKE SOMERVILLE
DAM...CARMINE...DEANVILLE...CHRIESMAN...QUARRY AND LYONS.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS EXPECTED OVER THE AREA. THIS
ADDITIONAL RAIN WILL MAKE MINOR FLOODING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...AS WELL AS FARM AND COUNTRY ROADS. DO NOT
ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL ACROSS FLOODED ROADS. FIND ALTERNATE ROUTES.

A FLOOD ADVISORY MEANS RIVER OR STREAM FLOWS ARE ELEVATED...OR
PONDING OF WATER IN URBAN OR OTHER AREAS IS OCCURRING OR IS IMMINENT.
DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL ACROSS FLOODED ROADS. FIND ALTERNATE ROUTES.
IT TAKES ONLY A FEW INCHES OF SWIFTLY FLOWING WATER TO CARRY VEHICLES
AWAY.

[djjordan]

Major flooding going on up north currently in the DFW area!!!! Heads up as this line enters our area....

[unome]

a couple reminders

https://youtu.be/eI6mIlHKrVY

https://youtu.be/Yehz2gUnNe0

[djjordan]

Major flooding taking place in the DFW area at this time. If you know anyone in the area, please give them the heads up!!!!


BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
423 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

...FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR THE AREA FROM GARLAND TO ALLEN...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN DALLAS COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL COLLIN COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 715 AM CDT

* AT 417 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
PRODUCED OVER 5 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN THIS REGION. ANOTHER 1 TO 3
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE TROUGH SUNRISE. SIGNIFICANT AND LIFE
THREATENING FLASH FLOODING IS OCCURRING NEAR DUCK CREEK IN
GARLAND. SPRING CREEK AND ROWLETT CREEK ARE ALSO LIKELY
OVERFLOWING THEIR BANKS.

THIS IS A FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR THE AREA FROM GARLAND TO
ALLEN. FLASH FLOODING IS OCCURRING WITH NUMEROUS ROADS NOW
DANGEROUS AND IMPASSIBLE. MULTIPLE HIGH WATER RESCUES ARE
OCCURRING. TRAVEL HAS BECOME IMPOSSIBLE IN MANY AREAS. IF YOU LIVE
IN A LOW LYING AREA NEAR A CREEK OR STREAM BE PREPARED TO MOVE TO
HIGHER GROUND SHOULD WATERS RISE TO YOUR LOCATION.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
DALLAS...PLANO...GARLAND...MESQUITE...RICHARDSON...ALLEN...
ROWLETT...WYLIE...SACHSE...MURPHY...FAIRVIEW...LUCAS...SUNNYVALE...
PARKER AND ST. PAUL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND NOW. THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE
THREATENING SITUATION. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL UNLESS YOU ARE
FLEEING AN AREA SUBJECT TO FLOODING OR UNDER AN EVACUATION ORDER.

&&

[djjordan]

Flash Flood Watch issued until Noon for our CWA due to saturated soils and swollen rivers


...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HOUSTON/GALVESTON HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...INCLUDING
THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...
BURLESON...CHAMBERS...COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...
GRIMES...HARRIS...HOUSTON...JACKSON...LIBERTY...MADISON...
MATAGORDA...MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...
WALKER...WALLER...WASHINGTON AND WHARTON.

* UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY

* A SLOW MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING. RAINFALL RATES ARE NOT
TREMENDOUSLY HEAVY BUT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO MOVE
OVER THE SAME AREAS REPEATEDLY YIELDING HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS
AND INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING.

* SOILS ARE SATURATED AND RIVERS REMAIN VERY HIGH FROM RECENT
RAINS AND ANY ADDITIONAL RAIN COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING THIS
MORNING. AREAS WEST OF A HUNTSVILLE TO SUGAR LAND TO BAY CITY
LINE COULD RECEIVE BETWEEN 2 AND 4 INCHES OF RAIN THIS MORNING
WITH LIGHTER TOTALS EXPECTED EAST OF THIS LINE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.