Re: June 2022
Posted: Wed Jun 29, 2022 7:53 pm
I think the TVCN model has a pretty good handle on this. Starting to see some consensus between Rockport and Seadrift.
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Re: June 2022
Posted: Wed Jun 29, 2022 8:13 pm
18Z HWRF and HMON.
Re: June 2022
Posted: Wed Jun 29, 2022 8:53 pm
00z Tropical models shifted to the east quite a bit, thats not good, that east trend is bad
Re: June 2022
Posted: Wed Jun 29, 2022 8:54 pm
0z tropical models shifted east . Consensus now over Matagorda Bay. Great 
Re: June 2022
Posted: Wed Jun 29, 2022 8:59 pm
Yeah the 18z looked way better. 0z would cut my rain totals down quite a bit.Stratton20 wrote: ↑Wed Jun 29, 2022 8:53 pm 00z Tropical models shifted to the east quite a bit, thats not good, that east trend is bad
Re: June 2022
Posted: Wed Jun 29, 2022 9:02 pm
Cpv17 I would get almost nothing, especially since this is going to be lop sided
Re: June 2022
Posted: Wed Jun 29, 2022 9:07 pm
Yep, that’s true. I’m literally right on the edge between getting 1-2” or 4-5+”. Looks like a pretty sharp gradient.Stratton20 wrote: ↑Wed Jun 29, 2022 9:02 pm Cpv17 I would get almost nothing, especially since this is going to be lop sided
Re: June 2022
Posted: Wed Jun 29, 2022 9:09 pm
0Z models
Re: June 2022
Posted: Wed Jun 29, 2022 9:11 pm
So when the hell are we supposed to receive any rain from this? I'm pretty much going to have to water tomorrow if we aren't getting anything until Saturday (if at all).
Re: June 2022
Posted: Wed Jun 29, 2022 9:12 pm
Cpv17 00z HRRR is not our friend either , focuses the heavier rains toward beaumont and most of SE Texas except for coastal communities get shafted
Re: June 2022
Posted: Wed Jun 29, 2022 9:24 pm
Yeah that sounds about right.Stratton20 wrote: ↑Wed Jun 29, 2022 9:12 pm Cpv17 00z HRRR is not our friend either , focuses the heavier rains toward beaumont and most of SE Texas except for coastal communities get shafted
Re: June 2022
Posted: Wed Jun 29, 2022 9:31 pm
0.00” again
Re: June 2022
Posted: Wed Jun 29, 2022 9:37 pm
This is how it always is flood maker in southeast texas
Re: June 2022
Posted: Wed Jun 29, 2022 9:39 pm
One thing to keep in mind... the remnant LLC will continue to push into Texas in the days post "landfall". It'll also continue to pose a risk of localized heavy rain events. Even if the risk of flooding is greatest along the coast and further east (day of)... the chance of beneficial rain and some heavy rain may linger, expand inland in the days following.Cpv17 wrote: ↑Wed Jun 29, 2022 9:24 pmYeah that sounds about right.Stratton20 wrote: ↑Wed Jun 29, 2022 9:12 pm Cpv17 00z HRRR is not our friend either , focuses the heavier rains toward beaumont and most of SE Texas except for coastal communities get shafted
Re: June 2022
Posted: Wed Jun 29, 2022 9:47 pm
weatherguy425 wrote: ↑Wed Jun 29, 2022 9:39 pmOne thing to keep in mind... the remnant LLC will continue to push into Texas in the days post "landfall". It'll also continue to pose a risk of localized heavy rain events. Even if the risk of flooding is greatest along the coast and further east (day of)... the chance of beneficial rain and some heavy rain may linger, expand inland in the days following.Cpv17 wrote: ↑Wed Jun 29, 2022 9:24 pmYeah that sounds about right.Stratton20 wrote: ↑Wed Jun 29, 2022 9:12 pm Cpv17 00z HRRR is not our friend either , focuses the heavier rains toward beaumont and most of SE Texas except for coastal communities get shafted
Please listen to this.
Re: June 2022
Posted: Wed Jun 29, 2022 9:50 pm
Good for me here in Beaumont if it verifies. May not happen BUT what is it with SETX and major flood events? I’ll gladly accept 5-7” from Mr Blob over a period of time, but anything more, Ill tap out! Hopefully this “thing” wont go down in history books. Im tired of being a part of history. Lol
Re: June 2022
Posted: Wed Jun 29, 2022 10:03 pm
Yeah there could be some feeder bands still that stretch back into the Gulf after the storm lifts northward and then there could be some that stretch back to the sw with a training ne movement. We’ll see.weatherguy425 wrote: ↑Wed Jun 29, 2022 9:39 pmOne thing to keep in mind... the remnant LLC will continue to push into Texas in the days post "landfall". It'll also continue to pose a risk of localized heavy rain events. Even if the risk of flooding is greatest along the coast and further east (day of)... the chance of beneficial rain and some heavy rain may linger, expand inland in the days following.Cpv17 wrote: ↑Wed Jun 29, 2022 9:24 pmYeah that sounds about right.Stratton20 wrote: ↑Wed Jun 29, 2022 9:12 pm Cpv17 00z HRRR is not our friend either , focuses the heavier rains toward beaumont and most of SE Texas except for coastal communities get shafted
Re: June 2022
Posted: Wed Jun 29, 2022 10:04 pm
Rip76 wrote: ↑Wed Jun 29, 2022 9:47 pmweatherguy425 wrote: ↑Wed Jun 29, 2022 9:39 pmOne thing to keep in mind... the remnant LLC will continue to push into Texas in the days post "landfall". It'll also continue to pose a risk of localized heavy rain events. Even if the risk of flooding is greatest along the coast and further east (day of)... the chance of beneficial rain and some heavy rain may linger, expand inland in the days following.
Please listen to this.
I second that emotion. It could be a long few days
Re: June 2022
Posted: Wed Jun 29, 2022 10:05 pm
Going to be like Imelda type event, somebody getting flooded
Re: June 2022
Posted: Wed Jun 29, 2022 10:18 pm
WRF also shifts east….. 
