wxman57 wrote:Just went out for lunch at one of my favorite spots (Burger House off Airport) and that sure is some beautiful winter weather!! It doesn't get any better than this - sunny and mid 70s in January (except, maybe, when it's sunny and low 80s in January).
Taking a look at the 12Z models - the Euro is MUCH farther north with the upper low on Tuesday the 24th. Takes the center across the northern TX panhandle vs. the Big Bend area. 12Z GFS has the upper low center a BIT farther north - over Minneapolis! That's quite a difference. 12Z Canadian doesn't go out far enough, but it doesn't show anything in TX or MN prior to the 24th, just a big upper low off southern CA. Needless to say, there's no model agreement that far out.
Still a severe weather threat, wxman57...
01162012 12Z Euro 12zECMWF500mbHeightAnomalyNA192.gif
01162012 12Z Euro 12zECMWF500mbHeightAnomalyNA216.gif
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hriverajr wrote:All that warm weather gloating is gonna bite you in the *** wxman57 lol just watch
Let it try to bite me! Maybe I'll take a vacation day Friday to go for a long bike ride. I generally avoid vacation in winter, but not when temps are in the 70s. Tell you what, I'll take a 100F day like we had last summer any day over last weekend's temps.
Lots of energy and lowering heights in the Gulf of Alaska is troubling for us warm-mongerers. It has the potential to pop the ridge up and bring some cold air down south if it persists.
wxman57 wrote:
Let it try to bite me! Maybe I'll take a vacation day Friday to go for a long bike ride. I generally avoid vacation in winter, but not when temps are in the 70s. Tell you what, I'll take a 100F day like we had last summer any day over last weekend's temps.
Lots of energy and lowering heights in the Gulf of Alaska is troubling for us warm-mongerers. It has the potential to pop the ridge up and bring some cold air down south if it persists.
hriverajr wrote:All that warm weather gloating is gonna bite you in the *** wxman57 lol just watch
Let it try to bite me! Maybe I'll take a vacation day Friday to go for a long bike ride. I generally avoid vacation in winter, but not when temps are in the 70s. Tell you what, I'll take a 100F day like we had last summer any day over last weekend's temps.
Lots of energy and lowering heights in the Gulf of Alaska is troubling for us warm-mongerers. It has the potential to pop the ridge up and bring some cold air down south if it persists.
I would love nothing more than a nice February blast that cripples Southeast Texas with a fierce Ice Storm equipped with Thunder and Lightning. NOW THAT'S WEATHER! Give me the Tennessee Ice Storm from the early 2000s that had 3 inch sheets of ice (freezing rain) and 6 inches of sleet over a 4 day period.
hriverajr wrote:These seemingly never ending model runs of almost zonal flow are starting to get on my nerves...
You'd think with all that energy zipping west to east that something would buckle, eventually. Euro and GFS shift the Polar upper-level low westward to Alaska next week. That's a change. Then the GFS takes it back to the north toward the Pole. No good indication of any southward push of Arctic air.
For what it's worth, the 12Z Euro ensmble mean is just as strong with the Gulf of Alaska 5H anomalies and a touch S regarding the upper low track for early next week. That said, there remains a lot of spread, but that spread is further to the E rather than N.
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MontgomeryCoWx wrote:srain... what would be the best chances for more heavy heavy rain and severe weather for Houston with this low? A southerly track along central Texas?
My hunch is this has a chance of being a bit more wide spread severe weather event than what we experienced locally, last Monday. The S Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley on E may well be involved this go around. Someone will pay for all this warmth in a zonal flow with such a significant storm, IMO.
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MontgomeryCoWx wrote:srain... what would be the best chances for more heavy heavy rain and severe weather for Houston with this low? A southerly track along central Texas?
My hunch is this has a chance of being a bit more wide spread severe weather event than what we experienced locally, last Monday. The S Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley on E may well be involved this go around. Someone will pay for all this warmth in a zonal flow with such a significant storm, IMO.
You're talking about a heavy tornado outbreak aren't you?
MontgomeryCoWx wrote:srain... what would be the best chances for more heavy heavy rain and severe weather for Houston with this low? A southerly track along central Texas?
My hunch is this has a chance of being a bit more wide spread severe weather event than what we experienced locally, last Monday. The S Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley on E may well be involved this go around. Someone will pay for all this warmth in a zonal flow with such a significant storm, IMO.
You're talking about a heavy tornado outbreak aren't you?
It's way too soon to talk about specifics at this range, but is certainly worth checking in and monitoring. HGX is already mentioning rains for next Tuesday. We will see.
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Definitely could be another severe weather event next week. But I wouldn't say that there's a significantly greater chance of tornadoes vs. severe thunderstorms than last week. Will have to wait a few more days for the models to come to an agreement. I suspect the end result (upper low track) will be in between the current Euro & GFS.
I just logged on and started reading Cascade Pass reports. I'm getting out of this winter hell down here and heading to Snoqualmie, WA tomorrow. Looking like 40-50 inches in some places.
I'll host pictures later. Hopefully, I will get back in time for a severe weather event next week.
I dont see anything in the long range la la land GFS this month that catches my eye though I would look at temps in Fairbanks......when you start seeing -40-45 below that mean its starting to pool up and it will have to spill over into the 48 at some point..... Still have minimal snow pack to the north....
I know it helps to have snowpack to the north, but lets say some serious Arctic air breaks loose and heads for Texas. If there is significant snow pack like there was last winter, lets say the air results in the coldest night of the event being 20 degrees in Houston.
If the same hypothetical happens, but without snowpack (like we have right now), how much warmer is that low?
Is it 22 degrees? 25 degrees?
That may not be the best way to ask the question, but I think you guys understand what I am getting at...
