January 2019 - Active Progressive WX Pattern Ahead

[CRASHWX]

I apologize and will offer more appropriate information...thanks for the heads heads

[redneckweather]

Crash, what do all these JB tweets have to do with our neck of the woods? He is and always has been East Coast biased. Chicago is NOT even close to our Region. In fact most of the Energy Mets are East Coast centric and tend to drive Natural Gas, LNG and generated electricity futures. Twitter reposts are fine when done in moderation...

Well Srain read it bro it says heartland and then talks about temps in Chicago so yes temps modify but if you are talking through the heartland than I assume he is talking about temps that will move through the northern plains down through the southern plains...you like George Straits song Heartland! Or am I wrong? I have acknowledged he leans EastCoast but I felt he still had good info to share unless you guys don’t feel he is legit or worth sharing and I will stop! Sorry if I have over participated...my feeling is I have since in the many years I have looked at this site I don’t remember you guys calling anyone out for posting info from another credible Pro. I will stop If I have stepped on toes.

Everything I have seen posted by JB by others (I don't follow him) has nothing to do with our weather down here in Southeast, Texas. I have yet to see anyone post him saying the arctic air is going to barrel straight down the lee of the Rockies. That's because it won't. We have a series of solid seasonal cold fronts coming down for the remainder of the month but as JB posted (and I agree with) the heart of the cold is going into the northeastern part of the country. I don't see any decent threats of wintry precip and I would absolutely love to be wrong in saying this but..


Tireman, was just giving you a hard time. Post away but put a disclaimer at the top of those long winded AFD's.

[CRASHWX]

National / Global map but I feel this still has a direct effect down here in our neck of the woods. The source was Euro ensemble.

[CRASHWX]

Crash, what do all these JB tweets have to do with our neck of the woods? He is and always has been East Coast biased. Chicago is NOT even close to our Region. In fact most of the Energy Mets are East Coast centric and tend to drive Natural Gas, LNG and generated electricity futures. Twitter reposts are fine when done in moderation...

Well Srain read it bro it says heartland and then talks about temps in Chicago so yes temps modify but if you are talking through the heartland than I assume he is talking about temps that will move through the northern plains down through the southern plains...you like George Straits song Heartland! Or am I wrong? I have acknowledged he leans EastCoast but I felt he still had good info to share unless you guys don’t feel he is legit or worth sharing and I will stop! Sorry if I have over participated...my feeling is I have since in the many years I have looked at this site I don’t remember you guys calling anyone out for posting info from another credible Pro. I will stop If I have stepped on toes.

Everything I have seen posted by JB by others (I don't follow him) has nothing to do with our weather down here in Southeast, Texas. I have yet to see anyone post him saying the arctic air is going to barrel straight down the lee of the Rockies. That's because it won't. We have a series of solid seasonal cold fronts coming down for the remainder of the month but as JB posted (and I agree with) the heart of the cold is going into the northeastern part of the country. I don't see any decent threats of wintry precip and I would absolutely love to be wrong in saying this but..


Tireman, was just giving you a hard time. Post away but put a disclaimer at the top of those long winded AFD's.

I appreciate the thoughts on JB...like I said I had acknowledged his east coast bias prior and I have really tried to highlight the things I thought may be likely to effect our weather here...but that said I will be more careful in my selections and I will moderate my JB injection in the future. I have thick skin Lol...I won’t cry for long! LMBO. In addition I realize it’s a privilege to be able to participate on this forum and those that run it have the right to call someone out for moderation violations. No worries here...bottom line I got pulled over and handed a friendly warning / citation. I will be a good member and behave! By the way no one take my light hearted comments as being sarcastic I really am just being very light hearted...Srain I still love ya and think you are a steely eyed weather guy!

[jasons2k]

That wind today is crazy!! At least it’s from the right direction now!

Noticed the ash and sweet gum trees already started blooming last week. Spring is close! Just gotta get through the next few weeks of miserable weather then hopefully things can warm-up around here.

What miserable weather? Hasn't been very cold or rainy this winter..been dull actually..you just must be one of those ppl that hates winter period lol

You are correct - I’m not a fan of cold weather unless:
1) it’s snowing
2) I’ve gone up to the mountains, to ski and enjoy some cold weather on purpose

I’m also an avid gardener - and like a lot of folks here is SE Texas, I have some tender plants and don’t care to see them freeze.

This fall and winter started off pretty cold. Remember how cold it was in October? That 27F I got back in Nov. was cold enough for me.

Just to clarify - that miserable weather for the next 3 weeks I’m referring to has a few meanings - mainly referring to the models but also traditionally the worst of winter will be behind us...

[mcheer23]

Snow has been added to the forecast in Huntsville by HGX

[Andrew]

HRRR shows a very large warm nose over northern sections of SE Texas tomorrow morning. Not very confident anyone will see anything more than ice pellets unless mesoscale models are heavily overestimating the depth of the warm nose. Not much room for evaporative cooling either. Best bet is for just rain and cold (the worst combination).

[stormlover]

Usually winter weather is a surprise

[Kludge]

Snow has been added to the forecast in Huntsville by HGX

They specifically say "north" of Huntsville. I like the sound of that.

[Andrew]

Usually winter weather is a surprise

It is but we usually have a weaker warm nose and we sit closer to freezing. It's possible, just think the odds are heavily against it.

[harp]

Check out hour 180 on the 18Z FV3 GFS. The clipper doesn't dry up like it does on the regular GFS. This scenario was there a few days ago and went away. Now, it's back.

[stormlover]

Fv3 is at it again for tomorrow lol

[javakah]

Wasn't prepared for the wind to pick up quite so suddenly and quite so fiercely tonight.

[Cpv17]

Front blew in here in Wharton right before midnight. Winds went absolutely nuts lol 15 degree temp drop in just a couple minutes.

[srainhoutx]

NWS San Antonio/Austin received reports of sleet in Williamson, Bexar and Comal Counties during the past hour. Melting on contact though.

[DoctorMu]

NWS San Antonio/Austin received reports of sleet in Williamson, Bexar and Comal Counties during the past hour. Melting on contact though.

60% chance of wintry precipitation in the next hour in College Station

[djmike]

Wow! Let the dogs out at 300am and the front was just blowing in. OMG! The winds were insane! Hadn’t seen or heard that in a loooong time. Kfdm just reported a gust of 51 mph overnight. With all the trees leafless and the winds blowing through all the twigs it literally sounded like a freight train. Anyway...It’s currently calmed now but im sure will pick back up when the bulk of tbe cold air builds in throughout the day. Overnight was 70, dropped to 47 currently. Gonna be a cold blustery day. Bundle up!!!

[djmike]

Nws Houston mentioned possible light snow mid morning for Houston in their Hazardous Weather Outlook link.

[Katdaddy]

What a difference from yesterday. A cold, wet, and windy morning across SE TX with temps in the low to mid 40s and some upper 30s N of Houston.
A band of light to moderate rain will be moving across the Houston-Galveston areas the next hour. Expect a wet morning commute.
The rain will move off to the E this morning and skies will begin to clear this afternoon but it will be breezy with highs in the 40s.

[CRASHWX]

GFS and the FV3-GFS