Wx Infinity Forums

niner21 wrote:This thing looks like it's almost on shore, on the coast of Mexico. I don't see how there's any way it can come north. Never say never but, never.... I'd not worry if I were a Houstonian. Maybe the next one. We'll probably eat some rain from it, probably it. I'm not even an amatuer so don't flame me to hard.

Boy, no way I would even say that. I realize that I am an amateur, but the pros (Wxdata, Wxman 57, Air Force Met..et al) do not have a good fix on this at all. I would think Tuesday or early Wednesday, we might know more.

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ticka1 wrote:I just remember IKE and how the NHC had it towards South Texas on Monday - when I began making preps and getting supplies and on Wednesday they changed to Galveston. Two days for most folks to try and get ready. I don't doubt the NHC they are the authority but they aren't perfect.

I will continue to watch and wait and monitor Alex.....but i'm not convinced its going to mexico.......

I agree Ticka...me either.

ticka1 wrote:I just remember IKE and how the NHC had it towards South Texas on Monday - when I began making preps and getting supplies and on Wednesday they changed to Galveston. Two days for most folks to try and get ready. I don't doubt the NHC they are the authority but they aren't perfect.

I will continue to watch and wait and monitor Alex.....but i'm not convinced its going to mexico.......

I agree. Gene Norman just pointed out that he would not be surprised if the track moved further north day by day as the week progresses. We all need to continue to pay close attention to this.

This thing ain't movin.... Not good at all

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

Andrew wrote:This thing ain't movin.... Not good at all

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

Espcially since the SST in the area are in the mid 80's Alex may be getting his Wheaties on.

This has to be one of the most irritating and confusing storms to follow. No one has been able to get a lock on it's intentions. Still tonight, most any solution is possible, excepting the N.E Gulf.

It'll do a head fake to the north and then hit north of Tampico, IMO.

Hurricane sheild, ON. Cone is your friend. Troph to the north of us will poo poo and move on out, taking away that magnet effect and should let that sucker jam into mexico.

I am not a forecaster, just somone with a laptop and 10 fingers. Cheers

I'm having a great time following it. I'm thinking we should watch it closely until it goes inland and dissipates.

Something tells me that Alex could be a major hurricane.

Stormrider wrote:

Andrew wrote:This thing ain't movin.... Not good at all

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

Espcially since the SST in the area are in the mid 80's Alex may be getting his Wheaties on.[/quote

Getting his Wheaties on.

More data...

000
NOUS74 KEHU 271900
ADASRH

ALERT ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SOUTHERN REGION HEADQUARTERS
200 PM CDT SUN JUN 27 2010

TO: ALL SOUTHERN REGION OFFICES

FROM: SOUTHERN REGION HEADQUARTERS REGIONAL OPERATIONS CENTER

SUBJECT: SPECIAL SIX HOURLY UPPER AIR OBSERVATIONS

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS REQUESTED SPECIAL SIX-HOURLY UPPER
AIR OBSERVATIONS FROM THE FOLLOWING STATIONS BEGINNING AT 18Z MONDAY
IN SUPPORT OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX.

ABQ...EPZ...AMA...MAF...DRT...OUN...FWD...CRP...BRO...LZK...SHV...
JAN...LCH...SIL

SPECIAL SIX HOURLY UPPER AIR OBSERVATIONS SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL
FURTHER NOTICE.

$$

DPORTER

I sure hope Ed is right on landfall being far from Houston. Did anyone catch Ch. 13's on-air met a few minutes ago? He said their futurecast is showing a more northerly movement toward the Upper Texas coast. He also intimated that he would not be surprised to see the NHC cone move further north at the 4am udpdate.

Ed Mahmoud wrote:

Stormrider wrote:

Ed Mahmoud wrote:I still say a range of tall mountains decoupling the low level circulation from the mid-level circulation happens. Remember 1994, and East Pac Hurricane Rosa. The surface low didn't cross the mountains, the mid level low and tropical moisture slug did, and moved over a shallow cold layer of air over Texas and rained like crazy.

So, assuming that this has happend, could a new circulation form?

I don't know. Doesn't seem to happen much I can remember. Might be a pro-met question, beyond my non-pay grade.

I know with weak tropical storms, multiple circulations can occur.

txsnowmaker wrote:I sure hope Ed is right on landfall being far from Houston. Did anyone catch Ch. 13's on-air met a few minutes ago? He said their futurecast is showing a more northerly movement toward the Upper Texas coast. He also intimated that he would not be surprised to see the NHC cone move further north at the 4am udpdate.

I saw that too. He said NHC had a low confidence forecast.

tireman4 wrote:

ticka1 wrote:I just remember IKE and how the NHC had it towards South Texas on Monday - when I began making preps and getting supplies and on Wednesday they changed to Galveston. Two days for most folks to try and get ready. I don't doubt the NHC they are the authority but they aren't perfect.

I will continue to watch and wait and monitor Alex.....but i'm not convinced its going to mexico.......

I agree Ticka...me either.

And I agree, too.

GFS is starting and the latest track shows a NW movement.

txsnowmaker wrote:I sure hope Ed is right on landfall being far from Houston. Did anyone catch Ch. 13's on-air met a few minutes ago? He said their futurecast is showing a more northerly movement toward the Upper Texas coast. He also intimated that he would not be surprised to see the NHC cone move further north at the 4am udpdate.

This has been the thinking for a couple of days from many folks. However, due to the fact that Alex is teasing us with these irratic behaviors, and the fact that many pro mets are stuck on Mexico, it all lends massive doubt. I still maintain that most anything is possible, at this point, and Mexico is not the only place Alex may decide to favor. Folks, don't be fixed on one solution, but rather watch what Alex is actually doing from day to day. After all, it is what it is, and some one's camp is going to bust wide open.

biggerbyte wrote:This has to be one of the most irritating and confusing storms to follow. No one has been able to get a lock on it's intentions. Still tonight, most any solution is possible, excepting the N.E Gulf.

Even more so for emergency managers up and down the coast. When you think that for example, the Beaumont area was rocked by Rita, Humberto and Ike and evaced for Rita Ike and Gustav, how gut wrenching it might be to make the call if Alex becomes a major cane and heads north.

OLD GFS through 36 hours: