January Weather Discussion: Slight Chance Severe Storms

[wxman666]

Yea Houston was on the outskirts of the snow and then it went to the areas east of there. Not much but just enough.

Oh very nice. That's what I like to hear. Perhaps Cypress/Cy-Fair will be just far enough on the northern outskirts to see some of that white stuff. Still, I'd at least give it until Friday before I felt decently confident.

Um I mean this is one model very far out I wouldn't put much confidence in it for precip.

At this point I don't have a whole lot of confidence in the models at all, haha. That's why I'm thinking perhaps we'll know more by Friday.

[wxman666]

Are we talking about a Sunday winter precip event ? Tim heller says that all precip this weekend will be rain. Then he said a lot could change.. Wondering what models he may have been looking at to make the all rain conclusion ..

I had posted Tim's video earlier yesterday evening. Upon reading his twitter posts today, the poor guy is really having a difficult time forecasting precisely what this system will do this weekend, along with every other meteorologist. I think he is downplaying things at the moment until greater evidence becomes available so not to cause excitement or alarm. It was surprising to many of us today when we saw HGX jump the gun and go 70% rain/snow mix this Sunday for the northern zones. It bears watching for sure and I wouldn't have gone as far as to say winter precip is out of the question anywhere in SE TX. However, it's anybody's guess right now. The bottom line is...we need more information and a lot more consistency. I'm ripping my hair out looking at these models because they all seem to say different things.

[Andrew]

Are we talking about a Sunday winter precip event ? Tim heller says that all precip this weekend will be rain. Then he said a lot could change.. Wondering what models he may have been looking at to make the all rain conclusion ..

Euro shows no snow for the whole run but I seriously doubt we will see wintry percip around here on Sunday. Next week is a different story though. It is too far to predict for precip. The Euro does get cold though. Temps in the lower 20's for the Metro and north and if we get out of freezing, highs are only in the low to mid 30's for a couple of days.

Also highest pressure I could find was 1058

[wxman666]

Here's a link to Tim Heller's latest weather blog. He has actually explained to a great bit of detail why he thinks it will be too warm for winter precip this weekend. At the same time, it appears he is basing this on current model trends which have proven to be anything BUT reliable so far so he does say that "a lot could change." I have a tendency to believe that should models keep trending colder and more frozen for this weekend, then our local meteorologists will be changing their forecasts quite drastically. And according to the latest runs Andrew has shared...it appears it is trending colder.

http://weatherblog.abc13.com/

[vci_guy2003]

Also, what changed in the models from a couple days ago predicting historic cold, and now backing off so much ? Is it the upper air pattern change, strength of high pressure? I've heard this could be a stepping down prolonged cold period ... So is it still possible for models to revert back to historic bitter cold projections?

[wxman666]

FYI: According to last zpf update from HGX, looks as though they have put that snow potential right along and parallel to the 190 corridor.

[wxman666]

Also, what changed in the models from a couple days ago predicting historic cold, and now backing off so much ? Is it the upper air pattern change, strength of high pressure? I've heard this could be a stepping down prolonged cold period ... So is it still possible for models to revert back to historic bitter cold projections?

If I were to throw my two cents out, I'd say I'd expect to see the models go back and forth up until about a day before the event. They may be having trouble seeing what's in store (i.e; it was suggested perhaps something that caused them to slack off was some kind of blockage)...and Gene Norman, Tim Heller, the NWS HOU/GAL along with some TWC meteorologists have all emphasized how these computer models have had a history of difficulty predicting these kinds of weather patterns.

[Andrew]

Here's a link to Tim Heller's latest weather blog. He has actually explained to a great bit of detail why he thinks it will be too warm for winter precip this weekend. At the same time, it appears he is basing this on current model trends which have proven to be anything BUT reliable so far so he does say that "a lot could change." I have a tendency to believe that should models keep trending colder and more frozen for this weekend, then our local meteorologists will be changing their forecasts quite drastically. And according to the latest runs Andrew has shared...it appears it is trending colder.

http://weatherblog.abc13.com/

I agree with his thinking on the Sunday event but I disagree on his thinking for next weeks event. He is comparing this to the Christmas event with highs in the 40's and lows in the 20's. As of now lows look to be in the middle to lower 20's and highs could only be in the 30's. This is usual though as most forecasters will stay at a higher temp and then come down from there. I guess we will see as time goes on if he is right or not.

[wxman666]

Here's a link to Tim Heller's latest weather blog. He has actually explained to a great bit of detail why he thinks it will be too warm for winter precip this weekend. At the same time, it appears he is basing this on current model trends which have proven to be anything BUT reliable so far so he does say that "a lot could change." I have a tendency to believe that should models keep trending colder and more frozen for this weekend, then our local meteorologists will be changing their forecasts quite drastically. And according to the latest runs Andrew has shared...it appears it is trending colder.

http://weatherblog.abc13.com/

I agree with his thinking on the Sunday event but I disagree on his thinking for next weeks event. He is comparing this to the Christmas event with highs in the 40's and lows in the 20's. As of now lows look to be in the middle to lower 20's and highs could only be in the 30's. This is usual though as most forecasters will stay at a higher temp and then come down from there. I guess we will see as time goes on if he is right or not.

It certainly will be interesting to see. I think we are kind of in the "downplaying" stage so to speak right now. It's typical it seems, for our forecasts here in/around Houston to downplay the event until sufficient evidence appears which unfortunately in a lot of cases, doesn't always show up in time to give us timely warning. Also if you've taken note...none of our mets have mentioned anything about a severe wx threat for saturday which was coming on as a pretty strong threat according to the trends earlier this afternoon. It's almost as if they've all forgotten about it. Idk...but I just found that interesting.

[Andrew]

Also, what changed in the models from a couple days ago predicting historic cold, and now backing off so much ? Is it the upper air pattern change, strength of high pressure? I've heard this could be a stepping down prolonged cold period ... So is it still possible for models to revert back to historic bitter cold projections?

If I were to throw my two cents out, I'd say I'd expect to see the models go back and forth up until about a day before the event. They may be having trouble seeing what's in store (i.e; it was suggested perhaps something that caused them to slack off was some kind of blockage)...and Gene Norman, Tim Heller, the NWS HOU/GAL along with some TWC meteorologists have all emphasized how these computer models have had a history of difficulty predicting these kinds of weather patterns.

Well first I think the historic cold was blown out of proportion just a little. Yes at one point the models did show a temp of around 15 degrees here and a 1070mb High, but that was a while ago and you had to expect it to warm up a little bit. A 1070mb high would of been impressive! We might still see this historic cold but it most likely will be a stepping down process (if it does happen) like you said. I mean the models are still coming in very cold with lows in the middle to lower 20's and high's in the 30's or 40's (and looking like the 30's right now). Models will continue to vary but I don't see a record breaking event but it still will be COLD! Also the upper pattern hasn't changed but it is the strength of the high that has which is causing the "warmer" temps. Like Wxman said though we won't have a really good idea of how cold it will get until the cold air builds in NW Canada.

[wxman666]

SPC Day 3 Update out....A "SEE TEXT" has been issued for now....

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html

[Andrew]

Here's a link to Tim Heller's latest weather blog. He has actually explained to a great bit of detail why he thinks it will be too warm for winter precip this weekend. At the same time, it appears he is basing this on current model trends which have proven to be anything BUT reliable so far so he does say that "a lot could change." I have a tendency to believe that should models keep trending colder and more frozen for this weekend, then our local meteorologists will be changing their forecasts quite drastically. And according to the latest runs Andrew has shared...it appears it is trending colder.

http://weatherblog.abc13.com/

I agree with his thinking on the Sunday event but I disagree on his thinking for next weeks event. He is comparing this to the Christmas event with highs in the 40's and lows in the 20's. As of now lows look to be in the middle to lower 20's and highs could only be in the 30's. This is usual though as most forecasters will stay at a higher temp and then come down from there. I guess we will see as time goes on if he is right or not.

It certainly will be interesting to see. I think we are kind of in the "downplaying" stage so to speak right now. It's typical it seems, for our forecasts here in/around Houston to downplay the event until sufficient evidence appears which unfortunately in a lot of cases, doesn't always show up in time to give us timely warning. Also if you've taken note...none of our mets have mentioned anything about a severe wx threat for saturday which was coming on as a pretty strong threat according to the trends earlier this afternoon. It's almost as if they've all forgotten about it. Idk...but I just found that interesting.

Srain has mentioned the severe threat but yea it has been "overlooked" on this board somewhat because this winter event is pretty exciting. Overall though most prof mets have been doing a good job keeping up with it.

[wxman666]

Interesting piece from the SPC...could be an interesting day for severe wx Saturday/Sunday...

"SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE MORE THAN
ADEQUATE TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS...POSSIBLY EVEN SUPERCELLULAR
IF SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP."

[vci_guy2003]

These days of highs in the 30s and lows in the 20s, with sunshine ? Or cloudy with chance of precip?

[wxman666]

To Andrew or Srain or anyone else...given this latest update from the guys at the Storm Prediction Center, I'd really be curious to get a look at some of the model runs in the morning, particularly the Canadian CMC and the GFS. The CMC was showing quite an intense convective system over us by Saturday in yesterday afternoon's runs, and if this keeps holding steady, that will be something interesting to watch...esp. if the GFS decides to pick up on it. At this point, after reading SPC's discussion...I am more concerned about potential severe storms this weekend than I am a winter weather event. Keep me posted. Thanks guys.

[Andrew]

These days of highs in the 30s and lows in the 20s, with sunshine ? Or cloudy with chance of precip?

Right now precip is a mystery. Cloud cover could be a possibility and I haven't checked the Euro for cloud cover but this air is cold enough that the clouds would only keep the high's lower and the low's higher but in the same general temp area. Once we get towards the event this details will be discovered.

[Andrew]

To Andrew or Srain or anyone else...given this latest update from the guys at the Storm Prediction Center, I'd really be curious to get a look at some of the model runs in the morning, particularly the Canadian CMC and the GFS. The CMC was showing quite an intense convective system over us by Saturday in yesterday afternoon's runs, and if this keeps holding steady, that will be something interesting to watch...esp. if the GFS decides to pick up on it. At this point, after reading SPC's discussion...I am more concerned about potential severe storms this weekend than I am a winter weather event. Keep me posted. Thanks guys.

I agree Severe weather looks like more of a threat then wintry weather. Here is what svrwx0503 had to say about the situation a couple pages back:

As far as the Sat night/Sun morning severe threat, 12z progs do not indicate much instability; however the impressive upper level dynamics and wind energy aloft should be enough for storms south of the warm front to produce damaging winds and maybe an isolated tornado. Right now my current thinking is that the best severe threat will be across our central and southern zones but all of the region will likely see some threat of an isolated strong storm along with some more much needed rainfall. Will nail down more details once the event gets closer.

Also the GFS has been jumping on board also with some elevated storms. It will be an interesting day and I feel a lot of people might get caught off guard.



Also been checking the Euro some more and that air just sinks straight south. Some of the coldest air actually goes a tad west of here! A really good run for us who want Cold weather. If you check the 850mb heights the counter lines just head straight south.

[wxman666]

I certainly hope folks aren't caught off guard. While snow is exciting...severe weather is life threatening. Hopefully HGX, David Paul, Gene or Tim will have an update tomorrow on this threat to help warn Houstonians. SPC is usually pretty good about issuing Tornado/Severe T'Storm Watches well ahead of time if conditions warrant. I will watch David Paul tomorrow morning along with Casey Curry to see what they think.

[Andrew]

I certainly hope folks aren't caught off guard. While snow is exciting...severe weather is life threatening. Hopefully HGX, David Paul, Gene or Tim will have an update tomorrow on this threat to help warn Houstonians. SPC is usually pretty good about issuing Tornado/Severe T'Storm Watches well ahead of time if conditions warrant. I will watch David Paul tomorrow morning along with Casey Curry to see what they think.

Oh man tomm is going to be rough for me. I shouldn't be up right now. I can't fall asleep now...

[wxman666]

As for the cold...that will be part 2 of this saga, that goes without saying. Looks like my grandparents up in the Big Country near Brownwood may see lows in the teens, possibly some isolated single digits next week, according to San Angelo's Special Weather Statement.