Re: September 2021: TS Nicholas NW Gulf Threat
Posted: Sun Sep 12, 2021 2:29 pm
If the Euro run comes close to even verifying then the Colorado River is going to be going into record flood stage and Wharton will be underwater once again.
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September 2021: Hurricane Nicholas
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Re: September 2021: TS Nicholas NW Gulf Threat
Posted: Sun Sep 12, 2021 2:31 pm
CPV17 this would absolutely be devastating, I dont even want to think of the anount of damage this would cause in central texas
Re: September 2021: TS Nicholas NW Gulf Threat
Posted: Sun Sep 12, 2021 2:36 pm
https://twitter.com/DRmetwatch/status/1 ... 6506184704David Roth
@DRmetwatch
A reminder that certain pieces of model guidance can be prone to ramping up precipitable water values much too fast and much too high. #HighBias. The left example is from today, the right example is from 2018. #ExtremelyImprobableForecast
Re: September 2021: TS Nicholas NW Gulf Threat
Posted: Sun Sep 12, 2021 2:45 pm
So models shifted west some? Hopefully that gives the Golden Triangle a more manageable level of rain then the 15-20”.
Re: September 2021: TS Nicholas NW Gulf Threat
Posted: Sun Sep 12, 2021 2:47 pm
I don’t think where it makes landfall will matter much for the Houston -> Beaumont sector
The expectation is still for it to meander up the TX coast and will bring heavy rains to SETX regardless of exact landfall location.
Re: September 2021: TS Nicholas NW Gulf Threat
Posted: Sun Sep 12, 2021 2:49 pm
Official track hasn't shifted ..just the euro
Re: September 2021: TS Nicholas NW Gulf Threat
Posted: Sun Sep 12, 2021 3:02 pm
18Z Tropical Guidance is coming in a tad west as well, more noticeably, the northeast turn is muted.
Re: September 2021: TS Nicholas NW Gulf Threat
Posted: Sun Sep 12, 2021 3:03 pm
I'm sure the 00Z guidance will swing back east, as the center seems to be reforming more northeast.weatherguy425 wrote: ↑Sun Sep 12, 2021 3:02 pm18Z Tropical Guidance is coming in a tad west as well, more noticeably, the northeast turn is muted.
Re: September 2021: TS Nicholas NW Gulf Threat
Posted: Sun Sep 12, 2021 3:06 pm
mcheer23 wrote: ↑Sun Sep 12, 2021 3:03 pmI'm sure the 00Z guidance will swing back east, as the center seems to be reforming more northeast.weatherguy425 wrote: ↑Sun Sep 12, 2021 3:02 pm18Z Tropical Guidance is coming in a tad west as well, more noticeably, the northeast turn is muted.
Re: September 2021: TS Nicholas NW Gulf Threat
Posted: Sun Sep 12, 2021 3:06 pm
Boy, that 72 hour mark has quite a variance between models. Not sure if that’s good or bad.weatherguy425 wrote: ↑Sun Sep 12, 2021 3:02 pm18Z Tropical Guidance is coming in a tad west as well, more noticeably, the northeast turn is muted.
Re: September 2021: TS Nicholas NW Gulf Threat
Posted: Sun Sep 12, 2021 3:06 pm
that seems quite a bit west to me, plus the northerly tract and not hooking east..weatherguy425 wrote: ↑Sun Sep 12, 2021 3:02 pm18Z Tropical Guidance is coming in a tad west as well, more noticeably, the northeast turn is muted.
Re: September 2021: TS Nicholas NW Gulf Threat
Posted: Sun Sep 12, 2021 3:14 pm
Use the wood for a boat!
Re: September 2021: TS Nicholas NW Gulf Threat
Posted: Sun Sep 12, 2021 3:17 pm
From Wxman57
Broad, elongated circulation. Still trying to get organized. I like 12Z Euro that takes it into NE Mexico then stalls east of San Antonio. Has 61+ inches of rain near La Grange. Last run had 25-30" just SW of Houston. GFS rain looks more reasonable. Still thinking moderate TS with only a small area of strong winds NE-E of the center making landfall near or just west of Matagorda Bay early Tuesday. Winds in Houston likely 20-30 mph with higher gusts in thunderstorms Tuesday.
Re: September 2021: TS Nicholas NW Gulf Threat
Posted: Sun Sep 12, 2021 3:17 pm
i see this thing stalling on top of us in GT for days...
Re: September 2021: TS Nicholas NW Gulf Threat
Posted: Sun Sep 12, 2021 3:21 pm
This. GFS totals look more likely. We'll see.
Re: September 2021: TS Nicholas NW Gulf Threat
Posted: Sun Sep 12, 2021 3:21 pm
Sunday 2PM Tropical Update: Be prepared for some changes to the forecast track coming out at 4PM.
The center appears to be consolidating about 95 miles to the north-northeast of the last known center fix. If this center takes over, it will cause the track to shift more eastward, the landfall timing to speed up, and the rate of intensification may quicken.
The computer models that ran earlier today did not have recon flight data ingested into them, and they likely missed the new center that is forming. In other words, we can't put too much faith in the precise rain totals and wind speeds for your location because the path will adjust.
Recon flight data will go into the computer models runs this evening, and if they correctly ingest the new center, that will give us more confidence in the computer model output.
Stay tuned.
abc13.com/tropicalupdate
The center appears to be consolidating about 95 miles to the north-northeast of the last known center fix. If this center takes over, it will cause the track to shift more eastward, the landfall timing to speed up, and the rate of intensification may quicken.
The computer models that ran earlier today did not have recon flight data ingested into them, and they likely missed the new center that is forming. In other words, we can't put too much faith in the precise rain totals and wind speeds for your location because the path will adjust.
Recon flight data will go into the computer models runs this evening, and if they correctly ingest the new center, that will give us more confidence in the computer model output.
Stay tuned.
abc13.com/tropicalupdate
Re: September 2021: TS Nicholas NW Gulf Threat
Posted: Sun Sep 12, 2021 3:25 pm
So where would it put it now if the center is reforming more towards the North East
Re: September 2021: TS Nicholas NW Gulf Threat
Posted: Sun Sep 12, 2021 3:25 pm
I feel interesting times are just ahead.
Re: September 2021: TS Nicholas NW Gulf Threat
Posted: Sun Sep 12, 2021 3:27 pm
So in short term, the models dont know whats going to happen l
Re: September 2021: TS Nicholas NW Gulf Threat
Posted: Sun Sep 12, 2021 3:35 pm
You may be right but I hope not lolmcheer23 wrote: ↑Sun Sep 12, 2021 3:03 pmI'm sure the 00Z guidance will swing back east, as the center seems to be reforming more northeast.weatherguy425 wrote: ↑Sun Sep 12, 2021 3:02 pm18Z Tropical Guidance is coming in a tad west as well, more noticeably, the northeast turn is muted.