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My b-day is the 26th. For as long as I can remember, my b-days are always boring weather wise and depressing outside.....down right gloomy. Someone throw some kind of excitement my way for my b-day please. A good severe weather event will be just fine and thanks!!

redneckweather wrote:My b-day is the 26th. For as long as I can remember, my b-days are always boring weather wise and depressing outside.....down right gloomy. Someone throw some kind of excitement my way for my b-day please. A good severe weather event will be just fine and thanks!!

Be careful what you wish for, redneckweather. There are already some significant changes showing up on the 12Z Euro.

redneckweather wrote:My b-day is the 26th. For as long as I can remember, my b-days are always boring weather wise and depressing outside.....down right gloomy. Someone throw some kind of excitement my way for my b-day please. A good severe weather event will be just fine and thanks!!

Current GFS has us in light to moderate rain with temps in the upper 50s or so on the 26th. Euro has high pressure overhead with a low in the mid 40s and a high in the mid 60s. Way too far out for any confidence in a forecast. None of the models is currently indicating anything very exciting. Perhaps they'll change over the next week.

Meanwhile, the prefrontal trough is passing through Brenham/Huntsville at the hour and the actual cold from just passed Tyler/Waco on down to Junction...

I know it is a long way off, but long-range GFS ensemble continues to paint a very interesting picture and should definitely raise an eyebrow or two.

http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/85 ... s2212.png/

That's one hell of a Groundhog Day! Block over Greenland and Block in Gulf of Alaska. That would be quite the BOOM after a balmy January in the Nation's midsection.

HPC afternoon update regarding early next week...

IN ADDITION... BOTH THE GFS AND GEFS ENSEMBLES HAVE A PARALLEL
VERSION RUNNING THAT ARE BOTH SLOWER THAN THEIR OPERATIONAL
COUNTERPARTS BY TUE/D7... BUT WITHOUT A CLOSED LOW. RECENT
FORECASTS OF SOUTHWEST CLOSED LOW EJECTION PROVED QUITE
CHALLENGING LAST WEEK... SO THE FORECAST MAY NOT SETTLE FOR A FEW
MORE DAYS.

12Z MODEL UPDATE... THE 12Z GFS STILL SHOWS SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES COMPARED TO THE PRELIM GUIDANCE AND THE 12Z ECMWF...
BUT HAS IMPROVED OVERALL. IT HAS SLOWED ITS NOW CLOSED LOW OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TUE/D7 WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF HAS QUICKEND AND
WEAKENED ITS EARLIER DEEP SOLUTION. THE EARLIER ISSUANCE PROVED A
GOOD INTERMEDIATE GROUND SO NO CHANGES WERE MADE.

HGX updated tornado reports are up for January 9th and there were 7 confirmed tornadoes...

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/hgx/?n=jan9_2012_storms

As the HPC mentioned, there still remains a lot of uncertainty regarding early next week and the 12Z Euro Ensemble mean continues that theme...

For those that are interested, my friend Wes Junker (HPC Forecaster/retired) has a great article today concerning the pattern out W and what may lie ahead as we begin February. Wes lives and writes for the DC region, but his expertise is second to none in regards to pattern recognition and how West Coast events of the past have played a role in pattern changes...

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/cap ... #pagebreak

Hmm! Feb. 2nd is my birthday. Bring it on. I DEMAND IT.. LOL

What? You can't mention names? What is up with that? I see these guys using names quite often in this forum. They hardly ever use Candy Cane, as an example. Wxman is picky about it, is all I have ever witnessed. What, we can't be friends by first name in here now? Who thought up that lame rule? Rediculous, at best. I've said it before. The old forum, and when Dan, oops, that weather guy who we all miss so much was still with us, is when things were at their greatest. We can not even get off topic, even for one post, like I am doing right now, unless of course you are a "member of the team". Yes, it is that noticeable. Football, anyone?
Way, WAY, too stuffy in here these days. We used to pride ourselves at being different than other forums. All one big weather family.
No more I see. I guess this post will be swiftly deleted now?

Dan, you and the good old days are sorely missed.

BB

Alright, this is a 'weather forum' not a 'lets bash someone forum'.
Can we please put all this behind us and move on and get back to our previous discussion regarding next week?
Thanks...

OK, who let that cold air back in? We finally get some decent warm weather down here and then it gets cold again...

18Z GFS has just a weak frontal passage here next Tuesday with a little rain. Nothing special. 12Z Euro is much weaker with the upper trof/front, too. None of the models is really handling the fast zonal flow well. It's still 7 days out, so expect more changes.

Waiting for it down here...cooler would be nice

not that I like cold weather but it does feel nice outside as the temp drops and skies clear. I rarely watch the CH13 weather guy but he pointed out the negative- ish temps in Alaska.....he must be reading my posts....ha!!

now that I slightly interested with that cut off low I see with the GFS I will be checking out the 0z tonight. Not much else to do but wait on TC season.....btw- models showing nuetral and with this overly mild winter ssts will be roasting by June,JMO....

Paul<--------my real name...

wxman57 wrote:OK, who let that cold air back in? We finally get some decent warm weather down here and then it gets cold again...

18Z GFS has just a weak frontal passage here next Tuesday with a little rain. Nothing special. 12Z Euro is much weaker with the upper trof/front, too. None of the models is really handling the fast zonal flow well. It's still 7 days out, so expect more changes.

It's winter. Get used to the cold.

Paul wrote:not that I like cold weather but it does feel nice outside as the temp drops and skies clear. I rarely watch the CH13 weather guy but he pointed out the negative- ish temps in Alaska.....he must be reading my posts....ha!!

now that I slightly interested with that cut off low I see with the GFS I will be checking out the 0z tonight. Not much else to do but wait on TC season.....btw- models showing nuetral and with this overly mild winter ssts will be roasting by June,JMO....

Paul<--------my real name...

Winter of 2007-2008 was mild due to La Nina. Not many freezing days. There were only 5 days of 32°F or below that winter. 2008 was an active hurricane season and Ike made landfall.

Ptarmigan wrote:

Paul wrote:not that I like cold weather but it does feel nice outside as the temp drops and skies clear. I rarely watch the CH13 weather guy but he pointed out the negative- ish temps in Alaska.....he must be reading my posts....ha!!

now that I slightly interested with that cut off low I see with the GFS I will be checking out the 0z tonight. Not much else to do but wait on TC season.....btw- models showing nuetral and with this overly mild winter ssts will be roasting by June,JMO....

Paul<--------my real name...

Winter of 2007-2008 was mild due to La Nina. Not many freezing days. There were only 5 days of 32°F or below that winter. 2008 was an active hurricane season and Ike made landfall.

oh I got a feeling that the TC lid is going to blow off this year. Just a gut thing...

Paul wrote:oh I got a feeling that the TC lid is going to blow off this year. Just a gut thing...

Yep. I think so, too. This is the year that's going to happen.