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If it can at least maintain itself till the western Caribbean it’ll have a much better chance at developing more than likely. Both the GFS and Euro ensembles favor Mexico or Texas. The faster it develops the more northerly of a component it could have.

Back home....

00
FXUS64 KHGX 240827
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
327 AM CDT Wed Aug 24 2022

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tomorrow Night)
Issued at 236 AM CDT Wed Aug 24 2022

Weak/diffuse frontal boundary should be situated across the northern
1/3 of the CWA today. Deep Gulf moisture with PW`s in the 2.2-2.5"
range will be pooling along and south of this feature. Combined with
heating and subtle impulses embedded in the flow aloft, this should
bring good chances for shra/tstms across parts of the region
today...particularly south of a Livingston-Columbus line. Steering
flow is very weak. In addition, potential is there for some training
with disturbances generally riding parallel to the frontal boundary.
Will need to keep a close eye on things...as efficient rain rates
are anticipated given the moisture profile. It looks like one of
those days where a swath of 0.5-1.0" accumulations will be the norm
across southern parts described above, but with some very localized
2-5" mixed in if and where any clustering/training occurs. Grounds
should be able to handle a good amount of precip...just not the 2-
3"+/hr rates which would cause some street flooding. Will handle
this potential by adding the mention of locally heavy rainfall into
the fcst/grids for now.

Looking for rains to mostly taper off toward evening, followed by
some regeneration later tonight closer to the coast. Parameters for
Thurs look about the same as today, but llvl boundary will probably
set up a touch further south...so axis of better rain chances should
follow (maybe I-10 to the coast assuming no significant mesoscale
disruptions in the meantime).

47

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 236 AM CDT Wed Aug 24 2022

Spoiler: Wet weather persists through the long term.

A weak upper level low will be hanging around the northwest Gulf
Friday through Tuesday which combined with PWATs near 2 inches
will lead to continued chance of precipitation. Generally the best
chance for showers and thunderstorms will be during the morning
through late afternoon hours with coverage shrinking during the
overnight periods. Through the start of next week, the best chance
for precipitation will be along and south of I-10, but exactly
where the storms develop will be driven by mesoscale features (sea
breeze, out flows, etc.) that can`t be predicted this far out. On
average, expect up to 1 to 2 inches of rain through Monday with
the chance for locally higher or lower amounts. There may be a
pattern change as we get towards the end of the long term as a
slow boundary moves in from the north. Exact timing on this is
uncertain, but should happen Wednesday or Thursday - and it would
continue the wet weather we have been in for the last week or so.

Temperatures through the long term will be quite stable with
afternoon highs in the low 90s and overnight lows in the mid to
upper 70s.

Fowler

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 236 AM CDT Wed Aug 24 2022

See short term for general fcst reasoning. Shra/tstm chances should
be on the high side for terminals CXO southward today. VFR
conditions will generally prevail outside of the stronger
cells/rainfall. Reduced visibilities and MVFR cigs in/near any
stronger cells.

47

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 236 AM CDT Wed Aug 24 2022

Moderate onshore flow of around 10 knots with wave heights between
2 and 3 feet will persist through the weekend. The flow may
increase to near 15 knots during the overnight periods, so small
craft may need to exercise caution. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will persist into next week with locally gusty winds
and higher seas will occur near stronger storms.

Fowler


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 92 75 93 75 / 40 20 30 20
Houston (IAH) 89 76 91 75 / 70 40 60 40
Galveston (GLS) 90 80 91 80 / 70 60 60 50

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...47
LONG TERM....Fowler
AVIATION...47
MARINE...Fowler

So the rain skipped over most of us yesterday and went coastal today. Remember a few days ago when the forecasts were for the central counties to be a “collision zone” for us to get the most rain? SMH.

It's amazing how just a week and half ago the landscape in my next of the woods was completely scorched and brown. As of now you can't even tell we were suffering from a drought. Everything is lush, deep green and I need to mow in a bad way.

I know its a long way off, and its the GFS...still

snowman65 wrote: ↑Wed Aug 24, 2022 9:07 am I know its a long way off, and its the GFS...still

I wouldn’t be surprised if it just stays weak and crashes into Belize and then Mexico.

Storms are all south and east of us. Hopefully the showers will fill in along the boundary to our northwest.

It’s absolutely pouring here in El Campo. Been coming down hard now for a good 15 minutes. But of course we’re not getting anything at my house.

Had a brief very heavy downpour in Rosharon. Looks like the train is stacking up behind it.

Regarding the Atlantic/Caribbean system:

I’ve always been more concerned about this system developing in the long term rather than the short term. It’s not unusual for these waves to be a sleeper until it gets to the Western Caribbean.

Raining pretty good here also the downpours are very tropical.

snowman65 wrote: ↑Wed Aug 24, 2022 9:07 am I know its a long way off, and its the GFS...still

Yeah the Icon takes the southern route and the GFS takes a more northern route.

Well I saw the first few love bugs yesterday...change is coming lol

That unsettled band of clouds to my NW is starting to pop some showers now. I’m also at 87 degrees with a dew point of 77. If those storms can bust through and get going, it’s gonna dump.

The GFS has now completely dropped that caribbean disturbance

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Wed Aug 24, 2022 11:31 am The GFS has now completely dropped that caribbean disturbance

It’s not going to intensify till it gets to the western Caribbean near the Yucatán. If it can hold itself together then it’ll have a chance in that region.

Cpv17 we will see, but yeah if it stays weaker it should encounter a more favorable environment in the WCAB, wouldnt be surprised to see it show up on the next GFS run, it is the flip flop model after all lol
Edit: Forget what I said, the energy is still in the GOM at hour 216 as a very broad low pressure area lol

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Wed Aug 24, 2022 11:31 am The GFS has now completely dropped that caribbean disturbance

I'm not shocked by that at all.

Caught around 1.5" from the heavier stuff. Still drizzling. Puts my 1 week total just over 5"

HRRR is showing the possibility of more storms firing up later this afternoon into the evening. Guess we’ll see.