August 2020:

[sambucol]

New data ingested.

[Cpv17]

Marco is also further west on the 0z Euro.

[Tx2005]

That looks like Freeport/Galveston landfall at 957 mb. Yikes.

Massive shift west from New Orleans at 12z.

[Scott747]

Good grief. Almost 40 mb lower as it approaches Freeport/Surfside.

[sambucol]

That looks like Freeport/Galveston landfall at 957 mb. Yikes

We would be on the bad side in the Houston/Beaumont area

[Andrew]

Texas bound?

Yes, lower and mid Texas coast could be in play if it doesn't turn.

Terrible run.

[Cpv17]

Texas bound?

Yes, lower and mid Texas coast could be in play if it doesn't turn.

Terrible run.

Andrew, I’m expecting even more shifts further south. Low to mid TX coast is very much in play imo. That ridge is no joke.

[don]

0z UKMET has a category 4 hitting Galveston and so does the 0z EURO.

[Tx2005]

I imagine the NHC will put Houston back in the cone on the next advisory.

Let’s hope for an eastern shift on the next few sets of model runs.

[Cpv17]

It looks like the 0z Euro comes in on the east side of Galveston Bay close to Chambers County. The Golden Triangle area would be devastated.

[sambucol]

I imagine the NHC will put Houston back in the cone on the next advisory.

Let’s hope for an eastern shift on the next few sets of model runs.

And many people are going to caught off guard since the models shifted yesterday eastward. Many have written this off affecting our area.

[Scott747]

GFS para ensembles with a strong signal for the upper Texas coast and sw la. Operational GFS ensembles with a slight w shift. Depending on what the euro ensembles show I expect they will adjust the track to near the border with our area firmly in the cone again.

[Andrew]

Yes, lower and mid Texas coast could be in play if it doesn't turn.

Terrible run.

Andrew, I’m expecting even more shifts further south. Low to mid TX coast is very much in play imo. That ridge is no joke.

It's possible, but I am just concerned about the trend today putting SE Texas in the bullseye

[Andrew]

GFS para ensembles with a strong signal for the upper Texas coast and sw la. Operational GFS ensembles with a slight w shift. Depending on what the euro ensembles show I expect they will adjust the track to near the border with our area firmly in the cone again.

Probably the most likely solution

[prospects8903]

I live in Orange, Tx I think I’m going to go ahead and move forward with my preparations tomorrow

[DoctorMu]

It's going to be a long week.

Euro, GFS, GFS-Para, ICON, 3 out of 4 Ensembles all within 100 miles of each other with Laura finding the SETX coast.

[Tx2005]

I imagine the NHC will put Houston back in the cone on the next advisory.

Let’s hope for an eastern shift on the next few sets of model runs.

And many people are going to caught off guard since the models shifted yesterday eastward. Many have written this off affecting our area.

It’s going to be pretty damn chaotic if come Monday, we are in the center of the cone and a major hurricane is projected with just a few days to spare.

I wonder how county officials are going to handle an evacuation in that scenario. We can’t have a repeat of the Rita evacuation but we also know what can happen if people panic.

[Cpv17]

Thankfully my area (Wharton County) would be safe in that run of the Euro. I feel for anyone in the path of that monster.

[sambucol]

I imagine the NHC will put Houston back in the cone on the next advisory.

Let’s hope for an eastern shift on the next few sets of model runs.

And many people are going to caught off guard since the models shifted yesterday eastward. Many have written this off affecting our area.

It’s going to be pretty damn chaotic if come Monday, we are in the center of the cone and a major hurricane is projected with just a few days to spare.

I wonder how county officials are going to handle an evacuation in that scenario. We can’t have a repeat of the Rita evacuation but we also know what can happen if people panic.

The alarming aspect is Ed Emmett won’t be in charge of this emergency.

[jasons2k]

And many people are going to caught off guard since the models shifted yesterday eastward. Many have written this off affecting our area.

It’s going to be pretty damn chaotic if come Monday, we are in the center of the cone and a major hurricane is projected with just a few days to spare.

I wonder how county officials are going to handle an evacuation in that scenario. We can’t have a repeat of the Rita evacuation but we also know what can happen if people panic.

The alarming aspect is Ed Emmett won’t be in charge of this emergency.

You are so right about that