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The experimental hurricane model that's undergoing testing brings a strengthening hurricane into the central gulf heading wnw/nw at hr 160. This is the 6z run. Main issue I have with this particular run is it develops closer to the Caymans. Again, it's only a experimental model in the testing phase...

Thats quite a spread lol

Shouldn’t we have a invest by tomorrow ?

Looks like we’re seeing a role reversal here between the GFS and Euro in regards to the strength of the ridge.

Yep, it will be interesting to see if the Euro is on to something or not.Tonight's model runs should be interesting to see if they trend towards the euro.

Yeah let’s see if this is the trend kinda of like grace was around this time range

Scott747 wrote: ↑Mon Aug 23, 2021 3:36 pm The experimental hurricane model that's undergoing testing brings a strengthening hurricane into the central gulf heading wnw/nw at hr 160. This is the 6z run. Main issue I have with this particular run is it develops closer to the Caymans. Again, it's only a experimental model in the testing phase...

MSLP.2021082306.gom.f168.gif

Do you happen to have a link for the animation? I’ve been trying to find one for a couple weeks now.

That NHC tropical weather outlook sure got busy quick!!!

weatherguy425 wrote: ↑Mon Aug 23, 2021 3:54 pm

Scott747 wrote: ↑Mon Aug 23, 2021 3:36 pm The experimental hurricane model that's undergoing testing brings a strengthening hurricane into the central gulf heading wnw/nw at hr 160. This is the 6z run. Main issue I have with this particular run is it develops closer to the Caymans. Again, it's only a experimental model in the testing phase...

MSLP.2021082306.gom.f168.gif

Do you happen to have a link for the animation? I’ve been trying to find one for a couple weeks now.

https://storm.aoml.noaa.gov/basin/?projectName=BASIN

Until it gets tagged just hit view all graphics and GoM in the region tab.

Scott747 wrote: ↑Mon Aug 23, 2021 4:23 pm

weatherguy425 wrote: ↑Mon Aug 23, 2021 3:54 pm

Scott747 wrote: ↑Mon Aug 23, 2021 3:36 pm The experimental hurricane model that's undergoing testing brings a strengthening hurricane into the central gulf heading wnw/nw at hr 160. This is the 6z run. Main issue I have with this particular run is it develops closer to the Caymans. Again, it's only a experimental model in the testing phase...

MSLP.2021082306.gom.f168.gif

Do you happen to have a link for the animation? I’ve been trying to find one for a couple weeks now.

https://storm.aoml.noaa.gov/basin/?projectName=BASIN

Until it gets tagged just hit view all graphics and GoM in the region tab.

Thanks! Quite a bit of run-to-run variability it seems.

weatherguy425 wrote: ↑Mon Aug 23, 2021 4:37 pm

Scott747 wrote: ↑Mon Aug 23, 2021 4:23 pm

weatherguy425 wrote: ↑Mon Aug 23, 2021 3:54 pm

Do you happen to have a link for the animation? I’ve been trying to find one for a couple weeks now.

https://storm.aoml.noaa.gov/basin/?projectName=BASIN

Until it gets tagged just hit view all graphics and GoM in the region tab.

Thanks! Quite a bit of run-to-run variability it seems.

Tell me about it, Ha. It usually does better once an area is tagged but still has its quirks.

Interesting few days ahead here. And no too far off of the Harvey/Laura dates.

Yeah my FB brought up my memories. Last year at this time we were dealing with some pretty serious storm tracks into SETX. Marco and Laura track doing the criss cross and Beaumont was in the smack dab middle of both cones for both storms. Had to evacuate for Laura. That was not fun. Thankfully SO FAR this year has been a lot easier. We were also at letters L and M at this time last year. Prayers for a quiet Texas season. Id be happy if no more storms formed. Unfortunately we know that wont be the case.

This is exactly why I said earlier it’s way too early to write this storm off as just a Mexico threat. Been watching the models and following the weather for many years now and have learned this.

18z GFS has shifted a little to the North

18Z GFS is further north into the Tampico area.Its very close though to being even more north than what it is with a frontal boundary entering the state as the system makes landfall.

I believe the reason why the GFS is much further south is because it develops the southern part of the wave where some other models have cyclogenesis occurring further north. Where this potential system consolidates is going to have big impacts on where it goes.

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Mon Aug 23, 2021 6:03 pm I believe the reason why the GFS is much further south is because it develops the southern part of the wave where some other models have cyclogenesis occurring further north. Where this potential system consolidates is going to have big impacts on where it goes.

Yes i agree.

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Mon Aug 23, 2021 6:03 pm I believe the reason why the GFS is much further south is because it develops the southern part of the wave where some other models have cyclogenesis occurring further north. Where this potential system consolidates is going to have big impacts on where it goes.

Yep.

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status ... 2822356993

Raised to 50% now
A tropical wave over the eastern Caribbean Sea is expected to form a
broad area of low pressure over the southwestern Caribbean Sea by
late week. Thereafter, environmental conditions are forecast to be
favorable for gradual development while the system moves
west-northwestward to northwestward over the northwestern Caribbean
Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.