Ok, folks. Enjoy this wonderful weather. It ain't going to last much longer...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
326 PM CST SUN JAN 30 2011
.DISCUSSION...
...COLDEST AIRMASS SO FAR THIS SEASON ON THE WAY...
SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY RIGHT OVERHEAD. AREAS JUST NORTH AND WEST
OF THE FEATURE HAVE SEEN CLOUDS CLEAR OUT AND TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE
MID 70S. WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN PLACE ALONG WITH HEATING AND
STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT SOME SCT TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED. THESE WILL
PROBABLY CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO PRODUCE SOME HAIL. PRECIP SHOULD WANE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING
AND AS THE S/W MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. AS WINDS DROP OFF LATER THIS
EVENING EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP. SEA FOG IS ALSO A PRETTY
GOOD BET BUT COULD BE DELAYED BY THE PRECIP COMPLEX CURRENTLY
JUST OFF THE COAST.
WARM AND MOIST CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST ON MONDAY BUT WITH LACK
OF A TRIGGER NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP OTHER SOME
SPOTTY SHRA HERE AND THERE. LLJ REALLY CRANKS UP (40-50KT) MON
EVENING AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING TOWARD THE
REGION. CONSIDERING THE STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT (PW`S FCST
1.3" TO 1.5" - BUT PROBABLY SLIGHTLY OVERDONE) EXPECT A FAST SHOT
OF SHRA/TSTMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES IN. THE FRONT SHOULD
BE APPROACHING NW PARTS SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE TUE...HWY 59 CORRIDOR BY
LUNCH...AND OFF THE GLS COAST AN HOUR OR TWO LATER. MORNING TEMPS
IN THE 60S WILL FALL THRU THE DAY AND INTO THE 30S & 40S BY 6PM.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING VERY COLD AIR WITH THIS
SYSTEM...WITH 925 MB TEMPS BOTTOMING OUT BETWEEN -5C (SOUTH) TO -12C
NORTH BY SUNRISE WED. WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS
ARE POSSIBLE TUE/WED NIGHT. TIME SECTIONS INDICATE 925 NM TEMPS WON`T
MAKE IT ABOVE 0C UNTIL SAT MORNING. THAT BEING SAID...CONTINUED
THE TREND OF LOWERING TEMPS. ALSO WATCHING AN INTERESTING PATTERN
DEVELOP TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. A LARGE TROF DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE CNTL US THIS WEEK WITH A FEW SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND -
MOSTLY INSIGNIFICANT WX-WISE FOR US AS THEY ARE TOO FAR NORTH.
BUT BY FRI ONE OF THE SHORTWAVES DIGS DEEP INTO NCNTL MEXICO AND
EJECTS INTO SCNTL TX FRI/FRI NIGHT. AS THIS IS OCCURRING ISENTROPIC
LIFT WILL BE ONGOING OVER THE COLD AIRMASS AT THE SFC. PLENTY OF
TIME TO ANALYZE THIS CONSIDERING IT`S SO FAR OUT...BUT WILL GO
AHEAD AND MENTION 20% CHANCE OF -SN ACROSS NRN PARTS FRI
AFTN/NIGHT CONSIDERING FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENTCarla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
