2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season General Discussions

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z Euro suggests a closed low developing just E of Belize in the NW Caribbean...

The Euro tracks the low pressure NW through the Yucatan Channel heading NW as the EC Ridge remain in control...

The Euro continues the NW motion into the Central Gulf to a position S of Vermillion Bay...

By hour 120, the Euro has a broad low S of Galveston heading WNW as a storm system develops over the Central/Southern Plains...

By hour 144, the Euro suggests a broad low pressure meandering across the Western Gulf. That model also suggests some destabilization across SW Louisiana/SE Texas and along the Middle Texas Coast...

At hour 168, the Euro still has a broad low pressure still meandering S of Matagorda Bay with a trough axis extending NE. That model has the weak cool front dropping S into the Tennessee Valley as well...

[Ptarmigan]

The 12Z Euro suggests a closed low developing just E of Belize in the NW Caribbean...

06182012 12Z Euro 12zeurotropical850mbVortSLP024.gif

The Euro tracks the low pressure NW through the Yucatan Channel heading NW as the EC Ridge remain in control...

06182012 12Z Euro 12zeurotropical850mbVortSLP072.gif

The Euro continues the NW motion into the Central Gulf to a position S of Vermillion Bay...

06182012 12Z Euro 12zeurotropical850mbVortSLP096.gif

By hour 120, the Euro has a broad low S of Galveston heading WNW as a storm system develops over the Central/Southern Plains...

06182012 12Z Euro 12zeurotropical850mbVortSLP120.gif

By hour 144, the Euro suggests a broad low pressure meandering across the Western Gulf. That model also suggests some destabilization across SW Louisiana/SE Texas and along the Middle Texas Coast...

06182012 12Z Euro 12zeurotropical850mbVortSLP144.gif

At hour 168, the Euro still has a broad low pressure still meandering S of Matagorda Bay with a trough axis extending NE. That model has the weak cool front dropping S into the Tennessee Valley as well...

06182012 12Z Euro 12zeurotropical850mbVortSLP168.gif

The forecast looks interesting. That could mean more rain if potential Chris stalls out.

[weatherguy425]

I know it's the NAM, but for the last few runs its been showing quite a bit of rain/ moisture associated with the tropical disturbance looming just offshore and east in Louisiana. Take it how you will.

[Andrew]

Still seems to be very little model consistancy. GFS and CMC want to split the system in the Caribbean and eventually send the one in the east Gulf West but intensity and placement seems to be a big issue.

[srainhoutx]

The GFS Ensembles as well as the Operational Euro continue to advertise a large broad low pressure over the Western Gulf.

HPC Model Diagnostics Discussion prior to the full Euro run...

...SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...

PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF BLEND
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

THE 12Z GEM GLOBAL REMAINS A STG OUTLIER WITH THE EVOLUTION OF
ENERGY THAT EMANATES OUT OF THE NWRN CARIBBEAN SEA AND MOVES TWD
THE CNTRL GULF OF MEXICO BY FRI. HOWEVER...THE SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT
IS FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED ON ALL THE MDLS BY THE END OF THE PD. THE
12Z UKMET AND ESP THE 12Z GEM GLOBAL MDLS POSITION THEIR LOW NORTH
OF THE 12Z NAM/12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF CAMP...WITH THE 00Z ECMWF OVERALL
THE FARTHER SOUTH BY FRI. THE LATEST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE WOULD
SUPPORT THE FARTHER SOUTH CAMP AT LEAST THROUGH THIS PD...SO WILL
LEAN TWD THE RELATIVELY MORE CONSISTENT 12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF SOLNS.



Edit to add: Final HPC Diagnostics Discussion. No change via the 12Z Euro cycle...

...SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...

PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS/12Z ECMWF BLEND
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

THE 12Z GEM GLOBAL REMAINS A STG OUTLIER WITH THE EVOLUTION OF
ENERGY THAT EMANATES OUT OF THE NWRN CARIBBEAN SEA AND MOVES TWD
THE CNTRL GULF OF MEXICO BY FRI. HOWEVER...THE SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT
IS FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED ON ALL THE MDLS BY THE END OF THE PD. THE
12Z UKMET AND ESP THE 12Z GEM GLOBAL MDLS POSITION THEIR LOW NORTH
OF THE 12Z NAM/12Z GFS/12Z ECMWF CAMP...WITH THE 12Z ECMWF OVERALL
THE FARTHER SOUTH BY FRI. THE LATEST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE WOULD
SUPPORT THE FARTHER SOUTH CAMP AT LEAST THROUGH THIS PD...SO WILL
LEAN TWD THE MORE CONSISTENT 12Z GFS/12Z ECMWF SOLNS.


12Z GFS Ensembles:

[djmike]

So is that the likely scenario now? Florida? That's an aweful big change it did there! Are we in the clear on the Tx coast or is there still the possiblity it can "jump" back west? Im just suprised that after this one jump to the east, all Im hearing and seeing now is all about Florida. NWS is also mentioning in there discussions that we dont need to worry and it will be dry and hot? I dont remember this much attention when it was forecasted for Tx...Can someone tell me we still have a chance or is that it? Thanks!

[srainhoutx]

A potential RECON mission is being tasked. Look for an INVEST later this morning/afternoon for the Gulf...

NOUS42 KNHC 201245
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0845 AM EDT WED JUN 20 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 21/1100Z TO 22/1100Z JUN 2012
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-033

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: A LOW LEVEL INVEST
AT 22/1800Z NEAR 24.0N 89.0W

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.

[djmike]

Wow...2 potential areas of concern in the Gulf and this place is DEAD! Let's get some ideas of what's possibly gonna happen! Any opinions on the latest model runs llike the 12z CMC and UKMET showing TX??

[srainhoutx]

Wow...2 potential areas of concern in the Gulf and this place is DEAD! Let's get some ideas of what's possibly gonna happen! Any opinions on the latest model runs llike the 12z CMC and UKMET showing TX??

Sort of a wait a see approach right now. And yes, the Canadian and UKmet did show a potential threat to SW LA/SE TX. We've talked about this possible disturbance for days. Let's see when we actually get an invest and the Hurricane guidance begins to enter the mix. I suspect we are all fairly well aware by now that there may be something to monitor in the days ahead.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT WED JUN 20 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM CHRIS...LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES SOUTH OF CAPE RACE
NEWFOUNDLAND.

1. A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING
FROM WESTERN CUBA AND ADJACENT WATERS NORTHWARD TO SOUTHERN FLORIDA
IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
COULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT IN A COUPLE OF
DAYS AS THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD
INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN
CUBA...SOUTHERN FLORIDA...AND THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

&&
PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM CHRIS ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO
HEADER WTNT33 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT3.
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON CHRIS ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT23
KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT3.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BROWN

[Rip76]

I was going to say the same mike.

[srainhoutx]

^

You never know... Today the Euro suggests a weak Hurricane into Tampa Bay...

[TexasBreeze]

Looks like the moisture is refreshing from the gulf and keeping dry air at bay so far. More rain from tropics?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-wv.html

[srainhoutx]

HPC Final Diagnostics Discussion:

...DISTURBED WEATHER OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO FL...

PREFERENCE: ECMWF/GFS BLEND

TOUGH TO DISCERN EXACTLY WHAT WILL OCCUR OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS BUT THE OVERALL CONSENSUS IS A VERY SLOW
AND GRADUAL MOVEMENT WITH A SHEAR AXIS/INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH
PROGRESSING FROM SOUTH FL/YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE WEST AND NORTH
INTO THE GULF. OVERALL HPC PREFERS THE DETAILS OF THE ECMWF AND
GFS... ON A VERY BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND INVERTED SURFACE
TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH PERHAPS... MID-LEVEL VORTICITY
NEAR THE WRN YUCATAN GRADUALLY DRAWING NORTHWARD INTO THE EAST
CENTRAL GULF ON SAT.

[Belmer]

Wow...2 potential areas of concern in the Gulf and this place is DEAD! Let's get some ideas of what's possibly gonna happen! Any opinions on the latest model runs llike the 12z CMC and UKMET showing TX??

Sort of a wait a see approach right now. And yes, the Canadian and UKmet did show a potential threat to SW LA/SE TX. We've talked about this possible disturbance for days. Let's see when we actually get an invest and the Hurricane guidance begins to enter the mix. I suspect we are all fairly well aware by now that there may be something to monitor in the days ahead.

06202012 12Z Canadian f120.gif

06202012 12Z UKMet f72.gif

That is a beautiful image the models have put over in SE TX
BUT, c'mon!! Everyday these models seem to be changing drastically. One day models had a potential developing storm going toward southern TX into northern Mexico. The next day they had it going toward Florida. Now, toward SW LA and SE TX. I only dare what tomorrow shows. But nevertheless, the fact that the UKMet and Canadian are showing a storm approaching landfall near the TX and LA boarder by Monday, does raise an eyebrow!

[srainhoutx]

HPC afternoon final update:

FINAL...
THE AVAILABLE 12Z GUIDANCE GAVE NO COMPELLING REASON TO MAKE MAJOR
CHANGES TO THE MORNING FORECAST. HOWEVER...SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE
MADE IN THE GULF/SOUTHEASTERN U.S. TO REFLECT THE MEDIUM RANGE
COORDINATION CALL WITH THE HURRICANE CENTER. A GREAT AMOUNT OF
MODEL SPREAD STILL EXIST WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...SO THIS REMAINS A LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST.

[srainhoutx]

A nice little swirl in the Bay of Campeche...

06202012 1925Z Gulf VIS latest.jpg

[texoz]

Also a slight swirl off NW coast of Cuba. Is that ULL or lower level?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-vis.html

[Belmer]

I like this little snip from Rob Lightbrown of Crown Weather Services:

"So, this 180 degree change in the overall forecast guidance and their track of this Gulf system has thrown a monkey wrench into the forecast. These model trends will be watched closely over the coming days. I do think that this will end up becoming Tropical Storm Debby by the weekend and I’m not sure I buy into the 180 degree change in the forecast guidance."

Hope more models come into agreement on Thursday of this 'potential' storm that could be Debby this weekend make yet another 180 degree change and head back to the West toward Texas.


In the meantime, the disturbance now has a 30% chance of development in the next 48 hours.

[jasons2k]

Wow...2 potential areas of concern in the Gulf and this place is DEAD! Let's get some ideas of what's possibly gonna happen! Any opinions on the latest model runs llike the 12z CMC and UKMET showing TX??

Taking a wait-n-see approach for now. Just too many questions on the table to have any confidence of where this will go. Like I have been saying, it will all come own to timing in the long range. Until we have a system on the map, the models are just a guess with the ridge shifting around and two troughs up towards the NE coming down.

[srainhoutx]

Something tells me the night crew may be a bit active the next several days...