August - Warm and Dry Weather Returns To End The Month

[srainhoutx]

Normally we would keep our Tropical Discussions in our Hurricane Central area, but with 92L potentially being a threat in the Western/Central Gulf Coast and the lack of any real weather for sometime across our Region, we will keep those discussions on the Main Page and leave any other Tropical systems for the Hurricane Central area of our Weather Forum. RECON has been tasked for 92L and that includes a G-IV flight to sample the upper atmosphere ahead of this potential tropical troublemaker.

Code: Select all

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EDT WED 14 AUGUST 2013
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
         VALID 15/1100Z TO 16/1100Z AUGUST 2013
         TCPOD NUMBER.....13-074

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. SUSPECT AREA - NEAR YUCATAN PENINISULA
       FIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70            FLIGHT TWO -- NOAA 49
       A. 15/1700Z                     A. 16/0000Z
       B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST           B. NOAA9 02BBA SURV
       C. 15/1430Z                     C. 15/1730Z
       D. 19.0N 87.0W                  D. NA
       E. 15/1630Z TO 15/2000Z         E. NA
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT             F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT

       FLIGHT THREE -- TEAL 71
       A. 16/1200Z, 1800Z
       B. AFXXX 0304A CYCLONE
       C. 16/0930Z
       D. 22.0N 89.5W
       E. 16/1130Z TO 16/1800Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
       A. CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES IF SYSTEM REMAINS A THREAT. 
       B. A POSSIBLE G-IV MISSION AT 16/1730Z.

[wxman57]

Unfortunately, it doesn't appear as though 92L will bring any moisture to the upper TX coast this weekend. I think it will most likely track N-NNE toward SE LA to the FL Panhandle. Won't rule out the chance of it not getting picked up by the trof and it heading west to Mexico. Either way, nothing for us.

[Rip76]

[Scott747]

Intensity guidance is actually much more robust than I thought it would be.

If the NHC were to come out with a track today the guidance could have it heading towards the Central Gulf and generally towards the MMR as a upper end TS and possible hurricane.

[Andrew]

Canadian (Brownsville/ Upper Mexico):

[wxman57]

Main models saying west now are the old NOGAPS and the Canadian - two of the worst models for TC tracks.

[srainhoutx]

Slight Risk for Severe Storms issued for portions of Central and SE Texas this afternoon/evening:

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1126 AM CDT WED AUG 14 2013

VALID 141630Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

...SYNOPSIS...
THE VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW TURNING EAST OF THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES REGION APPEARS LIKELY TO SHIFT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS FORECAST
PERIOD...AS ANOTHER STRONG IMPULSE DIGS SOUTH OF HUDSON BAY. AS
THIS OCCURS...MODELS SUGGEST MID/UPPER FLOW EAST OF THE ROCKIES WILL
BECOME A BIT LESS AMPLIFIED...BUT IT MAY REMAIN AT LEAST MODESTLY
STRONG AND CYCLONIC IN A COUPLE OF BELTS...THE MORE PROMINENT ONE
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE NORTHEAST...THE
OTHER EAST OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST.
MEANWHILE...TO THE NORTH OF A SUPPRESSED SUBTROPICAL HIGH CENTER
OVER NORTHERN MEXICO...UPPER RIDGING WILL BE MAINTAINED ALONG AN
AXIS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION THROUGH THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES...WHILE A COUPLE OF WEAK IMPULSES PROGRESS AROUND ITS
NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY...ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS. FARTHER WEST...CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST...AROUND THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN OFFSHORE LOW.

IN RESPONSE TO THESE DEVELOPMENTS...THE FRONTAL ZONE...ASSOCIATED
WITH A SIGNIFICANT COLD INTRUSION TO THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES...IS
EXPECTED TO GENERALLY STALL/WEAKEN OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER STATES
TODAY. ANOTHER REMNANT LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE...CONVECTIVELY
REINFORCED IN SOME LOCATIONS...WILL LINGER ACROSS PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...WHILE WARM AND DEEPLY MIXED AIR FROM
THE PLATEAU REGION BEGINS TO SLOWLY ADVECT EAST OF THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES.

LINGERING STRONGER DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW FIELDS AND SHEAR ACROSS THE
EAST WILL REMAIN DISPLACED TO THE NORTH OF PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...WHICH IS BECOMING CONFINED TO PARTS
OF THE EASTERN GULF STATES AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. AT THE SAME
TIME...FARTHER WEST...ASIDE FROM PERHAPS A FEW LOCALIZED POCKETS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SIZABLE CAPE WILL BE CONFINED TO THE FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS...WITH SHEAR AND DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW
FIELDS REMAINING WEAK ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS. AS SEASONABLY DRY
AND STABLE CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST...WITH THE
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND ADJACENT SOUTHERN
PLATEAU...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ACROSS MUCH OF THE NATION
APPEARS RELATIVELY LOW TODAY.

...TEXAS...
IT DOES APPEAR THAT STRONG SURFACE HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A HOT
AND DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...WITHIN AT LEAST A NARROW CORRIDOR
ALONG WHICH MOISTURE WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF MODESTLY LARGE
CAPE...ROUGHLY FROM THE EDWARDS PLATEAU/HILL COUNTRY TOWARD THE
MID/UPPER TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN. THIS ENVIRONMENT PROBABLY WILL BE
CONDUCIVE TO STRONG DOWNBURSTS WITH THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO FORM
DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...IN THE PRESENCE OF
RELATIVELY WEAK INHIBITION. FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK IMPULSE
MIGRATING EAST SOUTHEAST OF THE HIGH PLAINS MAY AID
DEVELOPMENT...WITH SOME CONSOLIDATION OF ACTIVITY AND ASSOCIATED
COLD POOLS...WHICH SHOULD TEND TO PROPAGATE SOUTHEASTWARD/SOUTHWARD
THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

..KERR/COHEN.. 08/14/2013

[Katdaddy]

Invest 92L now up to 60% and code red. From the 2:00PM Tropical Weather Outlook:

THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. CLOUDINESS AND
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM BEFORE THE
DISTURBANCE REACHES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ON THURSDAY. AFTER
THAT...THIS WEATHER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO...WHERE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS WILL LIKELY BE A LITTLE LESS
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR NOT A
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMS...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE FORECAST
TO SPREAD OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND BELIZE DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO...AND INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF THIS DISTURBANCE.

[srainhoutx]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
224 PM CDT WED AUG 14 2013

TXZ176-177-196-198-142015-
BRAZOS-WALKER-MADISON-GRIMES-
224 PM CDT WED AUG 14 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN GRIMES...NORTHERN
BRAZOS...WALKER...AND MADISON COUNTIES UNTIL 315 PM CDT...

AT 223 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR
MADISONVILLE TO 12 MILES NORTH OF KURTEN...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20
MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PEAS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MADISONVILLE...BEDIAS...KURTEN...MIDWAY...IOLA...AND NORTH ZULCH.

[jasons2k]

Split in the line in Montgomery County looks like it's aimed right for me...

Edit 5:50:
Yep, so frustrating. The giant line of storms in western montgomery county fizzled as it got here, then as it and the outflow moved east & south of here - boom! you can see what happened - big storms from IAH and a line now approaching the US-59 corridor.

Still trapped in no-man's land but it looks like the storms to my northwest towards Lake Conroe may be trying to backbuild, but nothing compared to the giant blow-up that missed me by literally two miles.

[jasons2k]

Doing its best to avoid my lawn...

I just noticed that - a big hole in NW Harris county. New line going-up from Livingston to Huntsville to Centerville. Impressive, but probably too late to make it this far down.

[TexasBreeze]

Missed mine too...

[srainhoutx]

Sprinkles...but it was pouring a few miles down the road in Copperfield.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED AUG 14 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH...AND IS PRODUCING WIND GUSTS
TO GALE FORCE IN SQUALLS TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. ASSOCIATED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM BEFORE THE
DISTURBANCE REACHES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ON THURSDAY. AFTER
THAT...THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO...WHERE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS COULD BECOME A LITTLE LESS
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR NOT A
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMS...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE FORECAST
TO SPREAD OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WESTERN CUBA...AND BELIZE
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE.

[wxman57]

Line split as it reached me (2 miles SW of the SW corner of loop 610) and reformed stronger to my south. Got 0.12" of rain and calm wind. Lots of thunder in the distance.

[txflagwaver]

Guess I will go put out the water hose

[SusieinLP]

txflagwaver,
Did you get any rain? It's still raining here in La Porte...

[Paul Robison]

What would have to happen in order for 92L to blow up into a major storm and make a run at Houston?

[srainhoutx]

00Z early tracks and intensity for 92L:

The attachment 08152013 00Z 92L aal92_2013081500_track_early.png is no longer available

[Texas Pirate]

Lovely rain and thunder by the bay tonight.
My garden was ecstatic.

[srainhoutx]

Morning e-mail from Jeff:

92L:
Area of disturbed weather continues over the western Caribbean Sea just east of the Yucatan peninsula. The system has shown little additional organization overnight with deep thunderstorm activity not organized. 92L is nearing the eastern coast of the Yucatan and will likely move inland today which should preclude development in the near term.

Track/Intensity:
There has been no significant change in the overall track reasoning with 92L in the past 24 hours. Troughing along the US Gulf coast would want to pull a deeper and well defined circulation northward across the central Gulf of Mexico and into the northern Gulf coast. However 92L is not a well defined deep system and is moving more toward the WNW with the low level easterly steering flow. A weaker system will continue to move with this flow into the northern Bay of Campeche or southern Gulf of Mexico and toward the N MX or S TX coast. Both of these track solutions remain viable options. It is also possible that if a stacked circulation does develop over the southern Gulf that the mid level center detaches and pulls northward while the low level center tracks W into MX…this would be a highly disorganized system. Model guidance spread remains large and the forecast track uncertain with lower than average confidence.

92L is running out of water to develop prior to reaching the Yucatan so the next area to watch for development is the southern Gulf of Mexico. Conditions are forecast to be somewhat favorable for development in the southern Gulf, but a belt or strong wind shear will be found across the NW and NC Gulf of Mexico over the weekend. If 92L remains far enough south it could be in a favorable upper air environment, while if it moves northward strong shear would likely severely hamper any development. There is decent model agreement on bringing 92L to tropical storm intensity in the next 48 hours and then leveling off around 40-50kts.

NOTE: USAF aircraft is tasked to fly a couple of low level missions into 92L today to determine if a tropical depression has formed. Additionally, a NOAA P3 high altitude jet will fly a synoptic surveillance mission across the Gulf of Mexico today to sample the upper air steering patterns. Data collected from these flight may finally help to settle down the model guidance.