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Latest ECMWF is a lot more aggressive in development and I am fairly confident this will be a gulf coast storm. While all locations should keep an eye on the storm, With that said for now I do believe this will stay a central/east coast storm. Ridging is forecasted to breakdown late next week and is forecasted to be more northeast. That would allow for the storm to rotate around the ridge sooner than later. Of course models are still adjusting at a pretty large rate so it will be a wait and see thing.

You beat me to it on the thoughts about this.

It appears to me that TC Genesis may well be developing. The latest visible imagery suggests a more consolidate low level circulation may be organizing near 16N 58W.

srainhoutx wrote:It appears to me that TC Genesis may well be developing. The latest visible imagery suggests a more consolidate low level circulation may be organizing near 16N 58W.

Yea I have been monitoring this too. Further south than models are indicating. It will be nice once we get recon out there.

ECMWF ensemble are rather supportive of a gulf entry also. I suspect we will see the GFS trend this way too over the next couple days.

Gaston track shifts west

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/#GASTON

Beyond 3 days, a break in the subtropical ridge is forecast, although the models are not in great agreement on exactly what longitude Gaston reaches before its likely recurvature. Overall, the model guidance has shifted a bit westward, and the latest NHC track forecast is shifted in that direction.

Interesting couple of days ahead.

12Z ECMWF Ensembles do raise an eyebrow. The individual members are beginning to trend left of the Operational suggesting a stronger SE Ridge and a more Westerly track may be possible after future Hermine crosses S Florida.

18z GFS is already coming in stronger but initialization was probably a little too far to the northwest (based on satellite data), not that it will make much of a difference.

Edit to add, much further west on this one. Stronger ridging.

Yeah 18z does start to get ones attention. I'll stand by waiting till 99l/Hermine is near Puerto Rico before getting more interested, but if modeling continues to show ridging building on holding strong further west....

Scott747 wrote:Yeah 18z does start to get ones attention. I'll stand by waiting till 99l/Hermine is near Puerto Rico before getting more interested, but if modeling continues to show ridging building on holding strong further west....

The increase in strength and longevity for the ridge over the east coast is very concerning. Especially how the ECMWF ensemble have been trending.

Looks like TX-LA landfall, but weak.

This should get the board going.

Andrew wrote:

Scott747 wrote:Yeah 18z does start to get ones attention. I'll stand by waiting till 99l/Hermine is near Puerto Rico before getting more interested, but if modeling continues to show ridging building on holding strong further west....

The increase in strength and longevity for the ridge over the east coast is very concerning. Especially how the ECMWF ensemble have been trending.

Only issue is Euro ensembles just yesterday had the bias well to the east and up the Eastern seaboard. Need a few more runs and to buy into the trend.

This is the first sort of legitimate run of the GFS when compared to the Euro. Doesn't get hung up in the Bahamas and the timing is much better. Still far out for us to get concerned this far west.

Scott747 wrote:

Andrew wrote:

Scott747 wrote:Yeah 18z does start to get ones attention. I'll stand by waiting till 99l/Hermine is near Puerto Rico before getting more interested, but if modeling continues to show ridging building on holding strong further west....

The increase in strength and longevity for the ridge over the east coast is very concerning. Especially how the ECMWF ensemble have been trending.

Only issue is Euro ensembles just yesterday had the bias well to the east and up the Eastern seaboard. Need a few more runs and to buy into the trend.

This is the first sort of legitimate run of the GFS when compared to the Euro. Doesn't get hung up in the Bahamas and the timing is much better. Still far out for us to get concerned this far west.

Yea consistency has been missing to a certain degree. With that said ridging over the east coast has been rather consistent, but as always the key is in the details.

Rip76 wrote:This should get the board going.

Yeah especially the 2 familiar evening/night posters of late...
This invest has my attention, but maybe the west trend will end and it will go back east, it usually does.

TexasBreeze wrote:

Rip76 wrote:This should get the board going.

Yeah especially the 2 familiar evening/night posters of late...
This invest has my attention, but maybe the west trend will end and it will go back east, it usually does.

Yea models are still all over the place but are starting to slowly trend to a consensus.

Andrew wrote: With that said for now I do believe this will stay a central/east coast storm

I would assume that, as of the 18Z GFS model run, you're not very hopeful of that anymore, are you, Andrew?

Skyguy wrote:

Andrew wrote: With that said for now I do believe this will stay a central/east coast storm

I would assume that, as of the 18Z GFS model run, you're not very hopeful of that anymore, are you, Andrew?

As of right now I still think central and east coast will have the highest chance to see this storm. GFS is still the only one that has such a far west solution and the 18z GEFS shows central and eastern Gulf of Mexico. Still time to watch though and lets see if the westward trend continues.

Andrew wrote:

Skyguy wrote:

Andrew wrote: With that said for now I do believe this will stay a central/east coast storm

I would assume that, as of the 18Z GFS model run, you're not very hopeful of that anymore, are you, Andrew?

As of right now I still think central and east coast will have the highest chance to see this storm. GFS is still the only one that has such a far west solution and the 18z GEFS shows central and eastern Gulf of Mexico. Still time to watch though and lets see if the westward trend continues.

I kinda think the GFS's scenario is a little way, way out there. Farfetched, in other words. Wouldn't you agree?