General Tropical Discussion Thread

[ticka1]

Just curious - is the reason the NHC isn't mentioning the wave off africa is because its still embedded in the ITZC zone? Or do they like to wait until its to around 40 or 50? Or is it just a blob and no MLC or LLC?

[ticka1]

The 6 hour increment loops of the Meteostat- can't tell whether the blob has any kind of circulation, really.

But it hasn't poofed like most blobs do. From what I can tell from the GOES Central Atlantic loop on the SSD site, it appears to have some suggestion of rotation.

NHC discussion has it as part of the ITCZ discussion. Looks like more than just a flare of the ITCZ to me.

Thanks Ed. Watching and tracking tropical weather is an ever-learning process - each year brings new questions and explanation of old ones.

[Rip76]

There's not a lot of comedy in weather, (mostly nerds, RUSH and Genesis fans) like weather.
But "4 Dollar Gas Storms" is hilarious.
Thanks Ed.

[srainhoutx]

This one bears watching as the Ridge appears to be building W as the disturbance nears the Bahamas/Florida...

[srainhoutx]

[srainhoutx]

12Z GFS suggests the area near 30W will simmer and wait on the wave approaching from the African Coast before slowly developing...



The longer range also depicts a cyclone hitting S FL around hour 288.

[srainhoutx]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 291747
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU JUL 29 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE ARE
MOVING ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT
10 TO 15 MPH. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS COULD
AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN ABOUT 600 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. SOME
SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT DRIFTS TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[srainhoutx]

The disturbance nearing the Islands is suggested by the GFS, Canadian, and NOGAPS as a possible TD/TS in the NW Caribbean. We shall see...

[Scott747]

0z GFS doesn't do much with 90l but does like the other yellow area entering the Caribbean. Hard to really gauge the new model right now with the initial negativity out of the box and what almost seems like a continuous stream of lows from the W Caribbean into the Gulf/BOC.

In this case it develops a moderate system with potential 91l (the other area with a yellow designation) once getting into the BOC.

[Mr. T]

If the Euro is correct with the upper air pattern for next week and beyond, the upper ridge that has decided to park over Texas may move back over the SE by next weekend. If so, any tropical entity that decides to make its way through the Caribbean could threaten anyone in the Western Gulf.

[srainhoutx]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 301150
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI JUL 30 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRODUCING
DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT AROUND 15 TO 20
MPH.

A SMALL AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN ABOUT 700 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS
SHOWING NO SIGNS OF DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...A TROPICAL
WAVE THAT JUST MOVED OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA IS PRODUCING A LARGE
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND THESE TWO SYSTEMS COULD
BEGIN TO INTERACT IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IN THIS AREA DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[srainhoutx]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI JUL 30 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A FAST-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SEA. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED
TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR UNTIL IT REACHES THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT
MOVES WESTWARD AT AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH.

2. A SMALL AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC
ABOUT 700 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS BECOME LESS
ORGANIZED DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER...A TROPICAL WAVE BETWEEN AFRICA
AND THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND COULD BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH THE SMALLER
DISTURBANCE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15
MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION IN THIS AREA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[Mr. T]

That's the 0z Euro

The 12z Euro no longer has such a SE ridge

[srainhoutx]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI JUL 30 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SEA. LITTLE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
UNTIL IT REACHES THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A SMALL AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC ABOUT
700 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS CONTINUES TO LOSE
ORGANIZATION AS IT INTERACTS WITH A LARGER TROPICAL WAVE A FEW
HUNDRED MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
DEVELOPMENT OF EITHER SYSTEM...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO
OCCUR...AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION IN THIS AREA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[srainhoutx]

Orange for the Eastern Atlantic Wave...

TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT JUL 31 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE JUST WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS BEGINNING TO
INTERACT WITH AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 500
MILES TO ITS WEST. ALTHOUGH THIS ENTIRE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER
REMAINS DISORGANIZED...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS
INCREASED DURING THE DAY. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME
SLOW DEVELOPMENT AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD...AND
THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE LIMITED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...AND DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM APPEARS LESS LIKELY BEFORE IT MOVES INTO CENTRAL
AMERICA IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

[srainhoutx]

12Z Euro at 240 Hours...

[texoz]

check out the t-storm activity over W. Africa with the next wave. One of the bigger ones I've seen this season.

Saturday 18 UTC pic
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/eumet/eatl/wv-l.jpg

[srainhoutx]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN AUG 1 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A NEARLY STATIONARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 850 MILES
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS ACTIVITY HAS BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED THIS MORNING AND CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. THERE IS A
HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. HOWEVER...THIS
ACTIVITY REMAINS SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
CURRENTLY NOT CONDUCIVE FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT BEFORE THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO CENTRAL AMERICA IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/KIMBERLAIN

[srainhoutx]

Very interesting Research Project concerning Cape Verde storms will begin 8/15 using a G-V aircraft...

http://data.eol.ucar.edu/codiac/projs?PREDICT

[srainhoutx]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 011742
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN AUG 1 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED ABOUT 875 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST
OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS MOVING WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 5 TO 10 MPH. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS GRADUALLY
BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAY BE FORMING.
IF THIS CURRENT DEVELOPMENT TREND CONTINUES...THEN ADVISORIES ON
THIS DISTURBANCE COULD BE INITIATED AS EARLY AS THIS AFTERNOON OR
EVENING. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND ADJACENT
LAND AREAS OF CENTRAL AMERICA. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS REMAIN UNFAVORABLE
FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR BEFORE THE DISTURBANCE
MOVES ACROSS NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THERE
IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/KIMBERLAIN