Page 5 of 17
Re: April 2020
Posted: Thu Apr 09, 2020 6:00 pm
by djmike
Well so much for a squall line... thought is was gonna extend down to south texas. Unfortunately looks like im gonna be slammed here in Beaumont in about an hour.
Re: April 2020
Posted: Thu Apr 09, 2020 6:23 pm
by jasons2k
I had a lot of wind - had to be gusts about 50 mph. Lots of usrd debris.
The line had a small split over me as it went by. I just got a little rain - .23” - not what I was expecting.
Re: April 2020
Posted: Thu Apr 09, 2020 6:28 pm
by djmike
Looks like many folks wont get anything from this Houston southward.
Re: April 2020
Posted: Thu Apr 09, 2020 6:59 pm
by jasons2k
Look out west towards San Antonio...
Re: April 2020
Posted: Thu Apr 09, 2020 7:01 pm
by davidiowx
Watch out westward. STW in effect until 10pm so it’s not over for the ones that haven’t had a drop like myself. Though it probably won’t be severe or as heavy as previously thought.
Re: April 2020
Posted: Thu Apr 09, 2020 7:21 pm
by Rip76
Pretty nice wind and clouds here in Friendswood. Not much at all on the rain front.
But watching out west.
Re: April 2020
Posted: Thu Apr 09, 2020 7:52 pm
by djmike
Well that was a lot of nothing here in beaumont. The entire line died out and went north. 1 rumble of thunder. The curse of no rain still continues... I had high hopes of some beneficial rain with this one and all the watches and warnings. On to the next...
Re: April 2020
Posted: Thu Apr 09, 2020 10:56 pm
by Cromagnum
Whole lot coming now
Re: April 2020
Posted: Fri Apr 10, 2020 9:04 am
by MontgomeryCoWx
I got .84 inches at our house in Magnolia and a quarter inch in Weimar.
Re: April 2020
Posted: Fri Apr 10, 2020 9:52 am
by Cromagnum
So is Saturday still looking primed or have things changed?
Re: April 2020
Posted: Fri Apr 10, 2020 12:34 pm
by Texaspirate11
we got two claps of thunder and a sprinkle yesterday. meh
Re: April 2020
Posted: Fri Apr 10, 2020 12:40 pm
by CrashTestDummy
The rain gauge is showing 0.02" since midnight, but it looks like we got a bit more than that overnight. I'd estimate ~1/4"?
Re: April 2020
Posted: Fri Apr 10, 2020 2:41 pm
by Cpv17
Cromagnum wrote: ↑Fri Apr 10, 2020 9:52 am
So is Saturday still looking primed or have things changed?
The second half of Saturday and into Sunday morning look primed. All severe weather modes will be possible with large hail being the biggest risk as of now. This is coming straight from the SPC. But then I go and look at the latest Euro run and it basically shows almost no rain at all for most of SETX. Only about a quarter to half an inch for the next 10 days. So who knows? With the way things have been around here lately in terms of rain I’d go with the drier solution.
Re: April 2020
Posted: Sat Apr 11, 2020 8:11 am
by unome
the slight area doesn't go all the way to the coast in this update
https://twitter.com/NWSSPC/status/1248956945848913920
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0743 AM CDT Sat Apr 11 2020
Valid 111300Z - 121200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT FROM NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL TX EASTWARD TO EAST CENTRAL
TX...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected across much of the southern
Plains, with the greatest threat this afternoon into early Sunday
morning. Large hail, damaging wind, and a couple of tornadoes will
be the primary threats.
...Southern Plains through tonight...
A closed midlevel low over the lower CO River Valley will move
eastward today along the southern AZ border. The closed low will
begin to evolve into an open wave and accelerate eastward to west TX
by early Sunday, in response to an upstream trough digging
south-southeastward from southern BC. At the surface, a lee cyclone
is expected to consolidate near the KS/CO border this
afternoon/evening. The lee cyclone will induce strengthening
southerly low-level flow and northward moisture transport across the
southern Plains, as the remnant front near the TX coast retreats
northward through tonight.
...Northwest TX today to southern AR/northern MS overnight...
The initial convection today is expected to form around 18z across
northwest and north central TX, in a zone of low-level warm
advection with increasing low-level moisture. The initial
convection will be elevated, with the potential to produce at least
isolated large hail given midlevel lapse rates greater than 8 C/km
and MUCAPE greater than 1500 J/kg. As the boundary layer farther
south in TX warms during the afternoon, there will be some potential
for surface-based storms along the southern flank of the mid
afternoon convection and along the dryline to the west. Deep-layer
vertical shear will be favorable for supercells, and low-level
hodograph curvature will increase by late afternoon, suggesting some
threat for a couple of tornadoes across northwest TX. The warm
advection storms are expected to persist through the evening across
southeast OK/northeast TX, and should reach southern AR/northern MS
overnight and into Sunday morning, with a continuing threat for at
least isolated large hail.
...Southeast TX Panhandle to central KS this afternoon/evening...
A separate area of potential surface-based storm development will be
along a developing dryline from the southeast TX Panhandle across
northwest OK into central KS this afternoon/evening. Modest forcing
for ascent along the dryline, combined with steep lapse rates and
effective bulk shear of 30-40 kt, will support a threat for
supercells with large hail from roughly 22-02z, with the somewhat
greater low-level moisture/buoyancy expected with southwestward
extent.
...Edwards Plateau across central/east central TX overnight...
Severe storm development is expected across the Edwards Plateau by
roughly 06z as increasing height falls/forcing for ascent encounter
the strong buoyancy along the west edge of the richer low-level
moisture. Supercells are expected initially, but rather quick
upscale growth into a large cluster is expected, and the convection
will likely persist across central into east central TX along the
warm front through 12z, with the strongest storms in closest
proximity to the surface warm sector. Very large hail, damaging
winds, and a couple of tornadoes will all be possible late tonight
through Sunday morning.
...Interior south FL this afternoon...
A few thunderstorms are possible this afternoon as sea breeze
circulations interact with the remnant front. Isolated large hail
and damaging gusts may occur in an environment with MLCAPE of
1000-1500 J/kg and effective bulk shear near 50 kt.
..Thompson.. 04/11/2020
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1258Z (7:58AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
Re: April 2020
Posted: Sat Apr 11, 2020 9:00 am
by Cromagnum
Meh. If its shifting north and west, I'm not even gonna pay any mind to it then.
Re: April 2020
Posted: Sat Apr 11, 2020 10:05 am
by davidiowx
Doesn’t really look like much of an event from a models perspective. Will see when the short range mesoscale models have today. The NAM 3k shows a weak line coming through. This will probably be one of those watch the radar and see type things.
It does look likes going to get down right chilly next week though! I’ll welcome it happily.
Re: April 2020
Posted: Sat Apr 11, 2020 10:32 am
by djmike
Doesn't look promising for us along the coast. Figures...
Re: April 2020
Posted: Sat Apr 11, 2020 12:00 pm
by Cromagnum
Weather apps saying rainfall amounts of less than 1/10 of an inch now. Yawn.
Re: April 2020
Posted: Sat Apr 11, 2020 12:38 pm
by unome
updated - hope all stay safe:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlo ... _1630.html
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1124 AM CDT Sat Apr 11 2020
Valid 111630Z - 121200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF TX...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the southern Great
Plains, with the greatest threat during the late afternoon through
early morning. Very large hail, tornadoes, and scattered damaging
winds will be the primary hazards.
...Synopsis...
A closed mid-level low along the AZ/Sonora border will evolve into
an open wave as it reaches the TX Trans-Pecos and northeast
Chihuahua by early morning, in response to an upstream trough
digging southeast into the northern Rockies. At the surface, a lee
cyclone is expected to consolidate near the KS/CO border this
afternoon/evening. The lee cyclone will induce strengthening
southerly low-level flow and northward moisture transport across the
southern Great Plains, as the remnant front near the TX coast
advances north through tonight.
...North TX/southern OK to the Ark-La-Miss...
Elevated convection is ongoing across parts of north-central TX, in
a zone of low-level warm advection with increasing low-level
moisture from the west and southwest. This activity will have the
potential to produce isolated severe hail along the eastern edge of
the expanding buoyancy plume, as it continues east through the rest
of the period, eventually reaching the Ark-La-Miss region.
Farther west, pockets of greater boundary-layer heating within the
plume of upper 50s to mid 60s surface dew points will support a
broad swath of moderate buoyancy with MLCAPE reaching 1500-2500
J/kg. At least a few supercells are expected to develop across
northwest TX and spread into southwest OK and western North TX this
evening. The greatest coverage of severe should be from large hail,
but a couple tornadic supercells and isolated severe wind gusts will
be possible as well.
...Southern Edwards Plateau to central/east-central TX...
Severe storm development is expected across the southern Edwards
Plateau between 03-06Z as increasing height falls/forcing for ascent
encounter the strong buoyancy along the west edge of rather rich
low-level moisture. A couple intense supercells are expected roughly
from the Del Rio to San Antonio vicinity where all significant
severe hazards are possible. Upscale growth into a broader cluster
is likely into east-central TX through early morning. Very large
hail, a few tornadoes, and a swath of damaging winds will all be
possible from late evening through daybreak.
...Interior south FL...
A few thunderstorms are possible this afternoon as sea breeze
circulations interact with the remnant front. Isolated large hail
and damaging gusts may occur in an environment with MLCAPE of
1000-1500 J/kg and effective bulk shear near 50 kt.
..Grams/Elliott.. 04/11/2020
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1722Z (12:22PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
Re: April 2020
Posted: Sat Apr 11, 2020 12:41 pm
by unome
unome wrote: ↑Sat Apr 11, 2020 12:38 pm
updated - hope all stay safe:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlo ... _1630.html
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1124 AM CDT Sat Apr 11 2020
Valid 111630Z - 121200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF TX...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the southern Great
Plains, with the greatest threat during the late afternoon through
early morning. Very large hail, tornadoes, and scattered damaging
winds will be the primary hazards.
...Synopsis...
A closed mid-level low along the AZ/Sonora border will evolve into
an open wave as it reaches the TX Trans-Pecos and northeast
Chihuahua by early morning, in response to an upstream trough
digging southeast into the northern Rockies. At the surface, a lee
cyclone is expected to consolidate near the KS/CO border this
afternoon/evening. The lee cyclone will induce strengthening
southerly low-level flow and northward moisture transport across the
southern Great Plains, as the remnant front near the TX coast
advances north through tonight.
...North TX/southern OK to the Ark-La-Miss...
Elevated convection is ongoing across parts of north-central TX, in
a zone of low-level warm advection with increasing low-level
moisture from the west and southwest. This activity will have the
potential to produce isolated severe hail along the eastern edge of
the expanding buoyancy plume, as it continues east through the rest
of the period, eventually reaching the Ark-La-Miss region.
Farther west, pockets of greater boundary-layer heating within the
plume of upper 50s to mid 60s surface dew points will support a
broad swath of moderate buoyancy with MLCAPE reaching 1500-2500
J/kg. At least a few supercells are expected to develop across
northwest TX and spread into southwest OK and western North TX this
evening. The greatest coverage of severe should be from large hail,
but a couple tornadic supercells and isolated severe wind gusts will
be possible as well.
...Southern Edwards Plateau to central/east-central TX...
Severe storm development is expected across the southern Edwards
Plateau between 03-06Z as increasing height falls/forcing for ascent
encounter the strong buoyancy along the west edge of rather rich
low-level moisture. A couple intense supercells are expected roughly
from the Del Rio to San Antonio vicinity where all significant
severe hazards are possible. Upscale growth into a broader cluster
is likely into east-central TX through early morning. Very large
hail, a few tornadoes, and a swath of damaging winds will all be
possible from late evening through daybreak.
...Interior south FL...
A few thunderstorms are possible this afternoon as sea breeze
circulations interact with the remnant front. Isolated large hail
and damaging gusts may occur in an environment with MLCAPE of
1000-1500 J/kg and effective bulk shear near 50 kt.
..Grams/Elliott.. 04/11/2020
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1722Z (12:22PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME