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Never say never. I think Bonnie could very well form today.

wow that was a quick turn of events.

Sure kind of difficult for this system to develop as the circulation moves inland...

wxdata wrote:Sure kind of difficult for this system to develop as the circulation moves inland...

Not one of the better moments for the NHC. Going from 0 to 60 leaves quite a bit to be desired. Doesn't look much different nor do the obs show anything really different than the past few days.

And for those wondering (seen it asked a few other places) why the NHC didn't issue a STDS. They no longer issue them anymore and why a updated TWO was put out.

Center appears to be inland now on later satellite shots. Surface obs suggest 20-25 kt winds in the squalls SE of the center. Perhaps a small, weak TD but not a TS. And note the two wind reports west of the center - blowing away from the center.

Scott747 wrote:

wxdata wrote:Sure kind of difficult for this system to develop as the circulation moves inland...

Not one of the better moments for the NHC. Going from 0 to 60 leaves quite a bit to be desired. Doesn't look much different nor do the obs show anything really different than the past few days.

And for those wondering (seen it asked a few other places) why the NHC didn't issue a STDS. They no longer issue them anymore and why a updated TWO was put out.

I don't remember the year or location, but the NHC did upgrade a tropical system to depression as it was moving onshore. It was downgraded the next advisory. Dr. Frank and I both scratched our heads over that one!

Here's a shot with a few more obs plotted. Note the 20-25 kts in heaviest squalls just east of the center, and note the two stations west of the center with winds blowing to the west and west-northwest. Not indicative of a well-defined LLC. One argument that it's not even a TD:

This little storm might not be done yet ...


http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=15

From 0% to 60% back to 0%

I would like some of the stuff the NHC is on

8 PM EDT TWO:

A SMALL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS MOVED INLAND OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
LOUISIANA ABOUT 25 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MORGAN CITY. NOW THAT THE
SYSTEM IS OVER LAND AND WILL MOVE FARTHER INLAND TONIGHT...TROPICAL
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS NO LONGER EXPECTED. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HOWEVER...HEAVY RAINFALL
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW IS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. INTERESTS SHOULD MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
THEIR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL UPDATES
AND ANY WATCHES OR WARNINGS.

kellybell4770 wrote:ok, so this thing went from "practically NO chance of becoming anything tropical to 60% chance as it moves on shore? I hope those people in LA thought enough to prepare anyway

Prepare for scattered thunderstorms?

Mr. T wrote:

kellybell4770 wrote:ok, so this thing went from "practically NO chance of becoming anything tropical to 60% chance as it moves on shore? I hope those people in LA thought enough to prepare anyway

Prepare for scattered thunderstorms?

And gusty winds..

Ed Mahmoud wrote:I don't always agree with Joe Bastardi, but he thinks NHC makes sure their forecasts verify. If they cancelled the recon as they did yesterday, and had it as a Code Yellow, they weren't going to ever classify it. Bastardi clearly respects Stewart as the one NHC forecaster who bucks this. JB thinks with a 946 mb pressure, Alex was a Cat 3 at landfall, and thinks NHC gave it Cat 2 winds because they hadn't forecast a Cat 3. That, I don't know, I wasn't looking at the HDOBs before it moved in. Sometimes it appears JB doesn't give NHC the benefit of the doubt.

JB is full of rubbish

There were no observations or recon reports as the storm made landfall that would give Alex the cat 3 classification (nor any damage reports as well). It's pressure may have been unusually low (which is something that will be looked back upon and studied, proof we do not fully understand the core of hurricanes and the relationship between wind and pressure), but the scale we use for hurricanes is for wind, and the wind in this storm was not high enough for a cat 3. The NHC is a respectable organization, and they would not upgrade something just because of their previous forecasts (Hurricane Charley anyone?). That is absolutely hysterical, and it really speaks of JB's character.

Speaking of JB, he sucks. Plain and simple. A shouting, hyping, hypocrite. Why JB and AccuWx acts like the NHC and the NWS is their enemy is funny. The NWS just doesn't care. Why anyone would pay their hard earned cash to read that guy's terrible rants each and every day is beyond me... One of the great mysteries of the world.

I will step of my soapbox, and I'm sorry for derailing this thread. But, I just had to respond to those ridiculous claims to put things right.

i am starting to think that the center of circulation is still over water

redfish1 wrote:i am starting to think that the center of circulation is still over water

Since this afternoon I've been watching the system using two radars (LIX & LCH.) The center is right on the coast moving west northwestward (which at that position is paralleling the coastline.

wxdata wrote:

redfish1 wrote:i am starting to think that the center of circulation is still over water

Since this afternoon I've been watching the system using two radars (LIX & LCH.) The center is right on the coast moving west northwestward (which at that position is paralleling the coastline.

Is this the little engine that could? LOL

could it possibly make it to southeast texas before moving inland and is still possible for it to gain more strength??

JimCantore

Invest 95L HASN'T come COMPLETELY onshore yet. It's trying to slowly organize south of Morgan City, LA. Could be interesting.....