Wx Infinity Forums

Rip76 wrote: ↑Thu Jun 03, 2021 9:44 pm Constant rain in Friendswood since 3pm.

It’s been about the same here but we’ve managed to avoid all the heavy stuff. Just a steady light to moderate rain here.

The 00z CMC is trying to develop something tropical around the 13th or so in the Gulf? Its far out but models have been hinting at some tropical activity around the 10-15th time frame, interesting

The WPC has significantly reduced totals across southeast TX in their latest update. I’m not sure how that’s possible when there’s a good chance of rain in the forecast for just about every day for the next 7 days.

CPv17 the WPC is definitely being conservative lol, they are calling for 3-5 inches over the next week while I saw about 4-5 inches of rain in my neighborhood just today , , some areas are going to recieve possibly 2 or 3 times the amount than what the WPC is predicting, The forecast calls for at least a 50% chance or higher for rain al the way through next friday, definitely think the WPC is underplaying this forecast

Kinda impressive that showers are already developing this morning. Considering all the rain that's just exited from the area from the long duration MCS yesterday. The return flow from the gulf must be strong right now.

(Sidenote: If only the MCS during February's winterstorm was as slow moving as yesterdays...lol the reason why snow totals were not at historical levels was the fact that the system was too progressive.Which was a result of the system becoming negatively tilted and ejecting over the state.You can make an argument that a weaker and slower system could have produced higher totals than what we saw.)

The EPS has a decent signal for development in the western Gulf come mid month.

My buddies fb hurricane link, he’s really good

https://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100067660293840

don wrote: ↑Fri Jun 04, 2021 6:48 am Kinda impressive that showers are already developing this morning. Considering all the rain that's just exited from the area from the long duration MCS yesterday. The return flow from the gulf must be strong right now.

(Sidenote: If only the MCS during February's winterstorm was as slow moving as yesterdays...lol the reason why snow totals were not at historical levels was the fact that the system was too progressive.Which was a result of the system becoming negatively tilted and ejecting over the state.You can make an argument that a weaker and slower system could have produced higher totals than what we saw.)

I believe that’s actually helping to reduce rainfall rates because it’s not allowing the atmosphere enough time to recover to produce heavier rains. This is mainly just a light to moderate rain event unless something changes. Yesterday it rained for 8 hours straight at my house and I only picked up 1.10”.

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Fri Jun 04, 2021 8:04 am The EPS has a decent signal for development in the western Gulf come mid month.

Yeah kinda interesting as several of the ensembles show a Pacific crossover into the western gulf similar to the 0z Canadian.Something to watch as the GFS has been hinting at possible tropical genesis mid month for several days now.

Has anything historically crossed over Pac to Gulf and developed into anything meaningful? Granted, at this point a heavy rainmaker alone would be unwelcome.

Cromagnum wrote: ↑Fri Jun 04, 2021 10:08 am Has anything historically crossed over Pac to Gulf and developed into anything meaningful? Granted, at this point a heavy rainmaker alone would be unwelcome.

Tropical storm Hermine 2010 is the last crossover i remember around here.

There is another disturbance heading toward us from the Del Rio/ San Antonio area to be watched for today. The big rain may have been yesterday, but it doesn't take much heating for things to be widespread quickly. The models and hrrr show things remaining scattered and not a real organized flooding event the next few days.

Winning the rainfall lottery today:

The National Weather Service in League City has issued a

* Flood Advisory for...
Northwestern Galveston County in southeastern Texas...
Harris County in southeastern Texas...

* Until 115 PM CDT.

* At 1123 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to
thunderstorms. Minor flooding is ongoing or expected to begin
shortly in the advisory area. Between 1 and 3 inches of rain have
fallen.

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Southeastern Pasadena, League City, Texas City, eastern
Friendswood, La Porte, Dickinson, Santa Fe, Seabrook, Webster,
Kemah, southeastern Clear Lake, Nassau Bay, Taylor Lake Village,
El Lago, Shoreacres, Clear Lake Shores and The Johnson Space
Center.

Additional rainfall of 1 to 2 inches is expected over the area. This
additional rain will result in minor flooding.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flood Advisory means river or stream flows are elevated, or
ponding of water in urban or other areas is occurring or is imminent.

Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

Love how the GFS is showing no tropical activity for the next 2 weeks, what a load of bogus lol, I believe the GFS is going to only pick up on a storm after its become a depression, definitely thinking we will see a gulf storm around the 13th, environmental conditions will be pretty conducive around then

Sun is full out down here. If some other impulse is moving through later I don't think if would take much to get things going again.

Yep, and just like that, new storms popping up on south side.

Latest CPC guidance has a high confidence risk of tropical storm formation in the western caribbean or Bay of Campeche around the 11th or so. Definitely worth keeping an eye on.

A nice 1.6" tropical downpour earlier bringing the 2 day total up to 2.85". A humid atmosphere in place and a little sun this afternoon. It will be interesting to see if the showers and isolated thunderstorms across SW portions of SE TX continue to weaken or begin to development.

Katdaddy wrote: ↑Fri Jun 04, 2021 5:15 pm A nice 1.6" tropical downpour earlier bringing the 2 day total up to 2.85". A humid atmosphere in place and a little sun this afternoon. It will be interesting to see if the showers and isolated thunderstorms across SW portions of SE TX continue to weaken or begin to development.

They will fizzle I’m pretty sure. The atmosphere is just too worked over to sustain heavy rains for a long duration right now. I think the models begin to realize that and so did the WPC. That’s why they have significantly cut back on rain totals. Not enough destabilization out there to sustain anything significant.

this is pretty cool,

https://www.chron.com/weather/article/S ... 0(Premium)