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Stratton20 wrote: ↑Mon Apr 03, 2023 11:11 am I think we will see some good rains out of this, im taking the average totals between the GFS, euro and Cmc, something to note is the CMC has been the outlier or driest solution across our region, I think 1-3 inches for most folks is a good bet, but this is the type of setup where a few miles can mean the difference between someone getting 1-2 inches and someone getting 6-8+ inches

The CMC is not a good model for rain events. It does best with the handling of shallow cold air compared to others.

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Mon Apr 03, 2023 11:11 am I think we will see some good rains out of this, im taking the average totals between the GFS, euro and Cmc, something to note is the CMC has been the outlier or driest solution across our region, I think 1-3 inches for most folks is a good bet, but this is the type of setup where a few miles can mean the difference between someone getting 1-2 inches and someone getting 6-8+ inches

CMC is more accurate for winter/spring FROPA. Euro for hurricane season. The new GFS is straight garbage.
CMC for this FROPA has been more consistent with my 30 years of observing weather patterns in the Brazos Valley, the NAM prog so far, and the GEPS ensemble. We'll see what happens. I'm a little skeptical about seeing 4-8 inches of rain on the cold side of a spring front. It depends on the SJT, but that doesn't look very active on the upper atmospheric models.

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Mon Apr 03, 2023 11:15 am

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Mon Apr 03, 2023 11:11 am I think we will see some good rains out of this, im taking the average totals between the GFS, euro and Cmc, something to note is the CMC has been the outlier or driest solution across our region, I think 1-3 inches for most folks is a good bet, but this is the type of setup where a few miles can mean the difference between someone getting 1-2 inches and someone getting 6-8+ inches

The CMC is not a good model for rain events. It does best with the handling of shallow cold air compared to others.

Up in the Brazos Valley, it fares better especially with FROPA placement. It naile FROPA placement this winter. CMC is also in line with the NAM and GEPS. Keep in mind there's a 10-15 inch rainfall gradient between CLL and HOU per year in rainfall.

There can be some variance, but I expect a very steep gradient in rainfall from this system from Hearne to Hempstead/Magnolia.

DoctorMu i mean even the CMC solution still has 1-3 inches for us, but yeah their is going to be a huge gradient on who receives the heaviest rainfall

To me it looks like the WPC’s 7 day rainfall map most closely resembles the Euro. We’ll see what the 12z Euro shows here within the next hour or two. 12z GFS and CMC were nothing to write home about.

12z Euro has a pretty big bullseye of 12-13 inches, widespread 1-4 inches for everyone

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Mon Apr 03, 2023 1:57 pm 12z Euro has a pretty big bullseye of 12-13 inches, widespread 1-4 inches for everyone

Will you please share a picture?

12Z Euro QPF map

EPS is showing about 4-6 inches over a sizeable area.

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Mon Apr 03, 2023 2:17 pm 12Z Euro QPF map

Oh my! Is this an accumulation over a period of 3 days or total in one day? Thank you!!!!!!!

Its over the course of 3-4 days, spread out, the area can handle that, but we know if we get any training thunderstorms to setup over the same area, some people could easily see 3-4-5 inches from a single cell in just a matter of a few hours, leading to minor flooding problems

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Mon Apr 03, 2023 2:27 pm Its over the course of 3-4 days, spread out, the area can handle that, but we know if we get any training thunderstorms to setup over the same area, some people could easily see 3-4-5 inches from a single cell in just a matter of a few hours, leading to minor flooding problems

Understood. Thank you!!

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1208 PM CDT Mon Apr 3 2023

Breezy south winds will continue to bring in Gulf moisture to
allow for scattered to broken ceilings through the afternoon with
conditions on the border for MVFR/VFR.

Surface low is expected to form east of the Rockies tonight and
this will allow for very breezy and gusty southerly winds during
the overnight into Tuesday period. This will continue to bring in
Gulf moisture with low clouds forming underneath an expected
capping inversion. Ceilings will be in the MVFR/IFR range.

Also, there is some sea fog potential that may move into KGLS,
although the strength of the boundary layer winds may help keep
visibility in check and from dropping to LIFR levels.

WFO LCH/07

Looks like the global models are honing in on an area just to the north of Houston. Guess we’ll see what the mesoscale models show.

The NAM is in range, so far its rather unimpressive with rainfall totals

The EURO is showing some hefty totals.With an are of 12+ inches in north Harris county and south Montgomery county. The Euro has most of the heavy rain happening on Friday as the gulf low/coastal trough develops offshore.

The WPC is mentioning they might upgrade our area to a moderate risk of excessive rainfall.

Interesting, its not very often they issue that in our neck of the woods

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Mon Apr 03, 2023 7:34 am

Iceresistance wrote: ↑Mon Apr 03, 2023 7:18 am Daily -SOI streak now at 7 days!

Love that! Where’s the heart eyes emoji at?

This can be fair enough:

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Mon Apr 03, 2023 4:07 pm Looks like the global models are honing in on an area just to the north of Houston. Guess we’ll see what the mesoscale models show.

South of Navasota (HWY1*5) to NW HOU for GEPS, NAM, CMC. Even the GFS is leaning that way now.

The Euro as well for the heavy stuff.