December 2025

[snowman65]

Christmas looking like a beach-goers dream this year. Please wear sunscreen.

[DoctorMu]

Jason can fire up the pool and the Bar-B

GFS then offers up some Ol Man Winter revenge as Santa heads back in his speedo after his Texas tour.

[DoctorMu]

GFS flips the Western block to the East after Christmas. Euro-AI has zonal flow then a jailbreak toward Texas just after Christmas. After Sunday's cold front prepare to bring out the swimsuits.

It looks like Miami kind of weather for the playoff game on the 20th in CLL. Upper 70s, some humidity. On second thought, give me a blue norther!! lol

[DoctorMu]

In the meantime, two more days in the 60s with dry air, before a warmup and another FROPA on Sunday.

Future FROPAs, however, are in negotiation.

[snowman65]

a dose of reality....

[Stratton20]

that map is a literal war crime against humanity, no bueno por favor

[snowman65]

that map is a literal war crime against humanity, no bueno por favor

So many people buy into the long range models and it spreads like a cancer. They should know by now you cant trust the models. I dont trust any model/forecast beyond 3-4 days at the most. Anything beyond that should not even be allowed to exist except for hurricanes, thats it.

[tireman4]

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.ph ... suedby=HGX

[Cpv17]

that map is a literal war crime against humanity, no bueno por favor

So many people buy into the long range models and it spreads like a cancer. They should know by now you cant trust the models. I dont trust any model/forecast beyond 3-4 days at the most. Anything beyond that should not even be allowed to exist except for hurricanes, thats it.

You have to know what to look for. And you don’t go by operational models when you’re doing something that’s a week or two out, you go by ensembles. You can usually see an Artic blast coming from two weeks out, sometimes longer than that if you know what to look for.

[Stratton20]

I dont know whats more depressing, amazon somehow screwing up my delivery and dropping the package off at the wrong house, or the temperatures im seeing for christmas.

[DoctorMu]

that map is a literal war crime against humanity, no bueno por favor

So many people buy into the long range models and it spreads like a cancer. They should know by now you cant trust the models. I dont trust any model/forecast beyond 3-4 days at the most. Anything beyond that should not even be allowed to exist except for hurricanes, thats it.

The long-term forecasts were wrong 10 days ago and they'll probably be wrong now.

[DoctorMu]

that map is a literal war crime against humanity, no bueno por favor

So many people buy into the long range models and it spreads like a cancer. They should know by now you cant trust the models. I dont trust any model/forecast beyond 3-4 days at the most. Anything beyond that should not even be allowed to exist except for hurricanes, thats it.

You have to know what to look for. And you don’t go by operational models when you’re doing something that’s a week or two out, you go by ensembles. You can usually see an Artic blast coming from two weeks out, sometimes longer than that if you know what to look for.

There's always an arctic blast 14 days out in the winter and a tropical system 10-14 days away in the late summer on the models, particularly GFS.

[DoctorMu]

Having said the the Ensemble and sensible forecasts are progging that after our little eastward bound clipper clips us early next week, zonal flow predominates. For funsies, GFS has some really cold air descending into Montana and the Dakotas around Dec 27.

Another cool snap after a Friday-Saturday warmup and then zonal flow through Christmas seems reasonable.

Today - we have mid 60s and low DP. Crisp azure skies and sun. Enjoy today!

[Stratton20]

The problem here, is that long range forecats while overdown on the warmth on christmas, are still probably right because the EPO is +, but it is still 14 days out and so much can change between now and then, hoping for more seasonal christmas weather, lets not going challenging record temperatures please