February Weather Discussion. Wild Winter Storms?

[weatherguy425]

oorrrr rain AND snow ;P

[brazoria_county22]

[AggieBuckeye]

All I want is a heavy band to train over my part of NW Harris county. I used to live in Ohio, and there was nothing quite like a lake effect snowband.

If we can get some banding in Cypress for a hour, I will be a very happy camper tomorrow night!

[singlemom]

FYI----soundings DO NOT support sleet. Please pass this little message on to all your friends. There is no SLEET and SNOW this go around. It is either rain or it is snow.

??? Now we're getting *nothing?????*

[wxman57]

The 2008 snow event was highly unusual for us in that it was the passage of the cold central core of an upper low that produced the snowfall:

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NARR/2008/121103.png

But I don't think you're getting what I'm saying about the current situation. It makes no difference what the temperature is today or yesterday or the day before. It's the air advecting into our area that has me concerned. It just isn't that cold and the dew points, in particular, aren't that low. There's not going to be much of a margin for temps to drop when the precip starts because the dew points may be in the 33-34 degree range during the precip. With the last event, the dew points started out in the upper 20s, leaving room for the temp to fall to 31-32 as precip fell. That's why we had significant accumulations.

Tomorrow will be a very similar setup to Dec. 4th-5th of last year, but with the temperatures across Houston 2-3 degrees warmer. That could make all the difference. We really need to get some colder air advecting into Houston, colder than the models are currently indicating. I do hope that we see significant snow, as cold and wet without snow is just miserable.

[wxman57]

FYI----soundings DO NOT support sleet. Please pass this little message on to all your friends. There is no SLEET and SNOW this go around. It is either rain or it is snow.

??? Now we're getting *nothing?????*

Don't misinterpret. What he's saying is that there will be a very rapid changeover from rain to snow. There won't be any prolonged period of sleet, if any falls at all, like with some snow events.

[Andrew]

Here are some good graphics to look at:







GFS:





Nam:






Everything except the NAM points to a happy Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning!

[Mr. T]

With the last event, the dew points started out in the upper 20s, leaving room for the temp to fall to 31-32 as precip fell. That's why we had significant accumulations.

I don't believe that is true. The temperature at IAH never dropped below 32 degrees until after the snow was over (finally fell to freezing between 11 pm and midnight). Temperatures were in the mid 30s during the snow event. We had significant accumulations because the precip was heavy enough. Surface temperatures certainly didn't help anything (and rose even more after the snow was over before falling below freezing when the clouds moved away)

Tomorrow will be a very similar setup to Dec. 4th-5th of last year, but with the temperatures across Houston 2-3 degrees warmer. That could make all the difference. We really need to get some colder air advecting into Houston, colder than the models are currently indicating. I do hope that we see significant snow, as cold and wet without snow is just miserable.

I'm looking at the progged 18z GFS surface temps, and I am NOT saying they are right, but the model forecasts temperatures to be exactly where they were during the event last December, in the mid 30s.

[Mr. T]

Everything except the NAM points to a happy Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning!

lol @ NAM

I expect Ed to give us a great analysis of the 0z NAM tonight. He'll make sure we know it shows no snow accumulation anywhere

[Mr. T]

when I say things like that people on the forum call me a tool and call for me to be banned.

No, it's because you said things like a winter weather advisory wouldn't verify for our northern counties and all snow would be well west and north of Houston, which is already in line to fail

[Andrew]

Everything except the NAM points to a happy Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning!

lol @ NAM

I expect Ed to give us a great analysis of the 0z NAM tonight. He'll make sure we know it shows no snow accumulation anywhere

Haha I love Ed he makes this forums enjoyable a lot of the time. I don't know what is wrong with the NAM I just hope it is not right.

It is all fun here on these forums.

[don]

Well hears my snowfall accumulation map:



Image gets cutoff so heres the link:

http://img638.imageshack.us/img638/8964/snowmap.png

[Andrew]

Well hears my snowfall accumulation map:



Image gets cutoff so heres the link:

http://img638.imageshack.us/img638/8964/snowmap.png

On your map I am right on the edge of 1-2 inches to .25 inches. I think that map looks pretty good. Lets see how it does.


***ALSO EVERYONE IF YOU DON'T WANT THE PICTURES CUT OFF SWITCH THE THEME TO SUBSILVER2***

[C2G]

Yes, that was truly unfortunate, Ed. To be called names and threatened with a ban for having a different opinion than a (Happy snow day scenario) was sickening.
If you really want to irk people tell them you have a gut feeling.
I pay close attention to what wxman says, and all along he hasn't quite got on board the significant, accumulating snow wagon just yet.
Maybe his opinion will change tomorrow........maybe not?

Personally, cautiously optimistic.......because too many times I've had my hopes squished.

[Mr. T]

Yes, that was truly unfortunate, Ed. To be called names and threatened with a ban for having a different opinion than a (Happy snow day scenario) was sickening.
If you really want to irk people tell them you have a gut feeling.
I pay close attention to what wxman says, and all along he hasn't quite got on board the significant, accumulating snow wagon just yet.
Maybe his opinion will change tomorrow........maybe not?

Personally, cautiously optimistic.......because too many times I've had my hopes squished.

How's this boring winter going for ya?

[singlemom]

Don't misinterpret. What he's saying is that there will be a very rapid changeover from rain to snow. There won't be any prolonged period of sleet, if any falls at all, like with some snow events.

ooo0000oooh! *Whew!* Thanks, Wx!

[C2G]

How's this boring winter going for ya?

Cautiously optimistic T, very cautious.
Just repeated myself........oh well.

[brazoria_county22]

little to no accum. means whatever falls wont stick right? but that dosent mean snow wont fall correct?

[redneckweather]

Ed LOVES to hear himself talk. More times than not I skip through his jibberish. If you want to hear yourself talk Ed, carry around a tape recorder for crying out loud you half empty, half full of...well, you know.
















KIDDDING!!!!!!

[singlemom]

I was looking at this radar:

http://www.intellicast.com/content/prod ... a/full.htm

I'm having a hard time seeing a rotation back around....it seems to be moving more to the East. Is there another system I'm not seeing that will push it more SE?