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Re: September 2021: TS Nicholas NW Gulf Threat
Posted: Sun Sep 12, 2021 8:05 pm
by snowman65
txsnowmaker wrote: ↑Sun Sep 12, 2021 7:57 pm
For some perspective, courtesy of David Paul. Harvey scarred many people and lives. It’s important to keep things on an even keel here.
“It's too early to tell exactly what neighborhoods, which parts of town, will see the highest totals, but models suggest some spots could see 15"-20" by Wednesday evening. For comparison... Three days out from 'Harvey' models were spitting out rain total forecast of 35"+”
https://m.facebook.com/KHOUDavidPaul/vi ... cated&_rdr
but, also perspective....Harveys totals were twice what it projected in many places...I had friends that were trapped in their attics with 8ft of water in the house... so...people will think 20+ inches is way underestimating...set real panic begins to set in...
Re: September 2021: TS Nicholas NW Gulf Threat
Posted: Sun Sep 12, 2021 8:09 pm
by Tx2005
Posts on S2K say the latest Euro run has this storm stalling west of Houston and it looks like max rain is over 40” around the Houston metro.
I know you can’t rely on one model, but damn that sure scares the hell out of me.
Re: September 2021: TS Nicholas NW Gulf Threat
Posted: Sun Sep 12, 2021 8:14 pm
by txsnowmaker
From wxman57 over at S2K, since he doesn’t post here much anymore.
“ Oh, it may well stall. When it does, it may be an exposed swirl with heavy rain WAY to the east in Louisiana. Models indicate strong west wind aloft over TX. I don't think we'll see a "core dump". Squalls may train over some areas, dumping more rain, but I don't think this is Harvey Part II.”
Re: September 2021: TS Nicholas NW Gulf Threat
Posted: Sun Sep 12, 2021 8:15 pm
by Iceresistance
There was the 12z Euro that dumped
60 inches near San Antonio . . .
Re: September 2021: TS Nicholas NW Gulf Threat
Posted: Sun Sep 12, 2021 8:16 pm
by Cpv17
Andrew wrote: ↑Sun Sep 12, 2021 7:41 pm
Cpv17 wrote: ↑Sun Sep 12, 2021 7:34 pm
18z Euro stalls the system out similar to the 12z Euro. Not sure about rainfall totals.
It's further east this time which is getting closer to the solution of the other models. If this run happens verbatim it would be worst-case scenario for Houston with over 20 inches of rain across the city
It has a weird track. Sent it towards central Texas and moves it back towards southeast TX.
Re: September 2021: TS Nicholas NW Gulf Threat
Posted: Sun Sep 12, 2021 8:18 pm
by Stratton20
Does anyone have a link for the 18z Euro?
Re: September 2021: TS Nicholas NW Gulf Threat
Posted: Sun Sep 12, 2021 8:18 pm
by Cpv17
Tx2005 wrote: ↑Sun Sep 12, 2021 8:09 pm
Posts on S2K say the latest Euro run has this storm stalling west of Houston and it looks like max rain is over 40” around the Houston metro.
I know you can’t rely on one model, but damn that sure scares the hell out of me.
Don’t put stock into exact locations right now regarding rainfall accumulations. Those high totals could be anywhere in southeast TX.
Re: September 2021: TS Nicholas NW Gulf Threat
Posted: Sun Sep 12, 2021 8:22 pm
by Cpv17
Stratton20 wrote: ↑Sun Sep 12, 2021 8:18 pm
Does anyone have a link for the 18z Euro?
Just go look on Storm2k.
Re: September 2021: TS Nicholas NW Gulf Threat
Posted: Sun Sep 12, 2021 8:26 pm
by Stratton20
CPV17 is that on twitter?
Re: September 2021: TS Nicholas NW Gulf Threat
Posted: Sun Sep 12, 2021 8:27 pm
by Cpv17
Stratton20 wrote: ↑Sun Sep 12, 2021 8:26 pm
CPV17 is that on twitter?
No, it’s a website. Google it.
Re: September 2021: TS Nicholas NW Gulf Threat
Posted: Sun Sep 12, 2021 8:28 pm
by Stratton20
found it, thanks
Re: September 2021: TS Nicholas NW Gulf Threat
Posted: Sun Sep 12, 2021 8:50 pm
by tireman4
As the hours and days pass, the forecasts will change, modify and become clearer into view. Make sure to go over your kits, be weather aware and moniter here and your weather sources. Thank you so much to the pro and amateur mets that visit here. We are appreciative of your time.
Re: September 2021: TS Nicholas NW Gulf Threat
Posted: Sun Sep 12, 2021 8:54 pm
by Stormlover2020
Re: September 2021: TS Nicholas NW Gulf Threat
Posted: Sun Sep 12, 2021 8:57 pm
by Cpv17
Man, what the heck? That’s a big east shift.
Re: September 2021: TS Nicholas NW Gulf Threat
Posted: Sun Sep 12, 2021 8:57 pm
by Stormlover2020
Cpv17 wrote: ↑Sun Sep 12, 2021 8:57 pm
Man, what the heck? That’s a big east shift.
Yeah models getting data now
Re: September 2021: TS Nicholas NW Gulf Threat
Posted: Sun Sep 12, 2021 9:03 pm
by Kingwood36
Stormlover2020 wrote: ↑Sun Sep 12, 2021 8:57 pm
Cpv17 wrote: ↑Sun Sep 12, 2021 8:57 pm
Man, what the heck? That’s a big east shift.
Yeah models getting data now
I don't think it will change the overall track tho..most guidance is still around Matagorda
Re: September 2021: TS Nicholas NW Gulf Threat
Posted: Sun Sep 12, 2021 9:03 pm
by Cpv17
Stormlover2020 wrote: ↑Sun Sep 12, 2021 8:57 pm
Cpv17 wrote: ↑Sun Sep 12, 2021 8:57 pm
Man, what the heck? That’s a big east shift.
Yeah models getting data now
That would be bad for the Golden Triangle and Louisiana and would significantly reduce rainfall totals across Houston.
Re: September 2021: TS Nicholas NW Gulf Threat
Posted: Sun Sep 12, 2021 9:08 pm
by snowman65
if thats the case we could be looking at Cat 2 by landfall for us....how lucky.
Re: September 2021: TS Nicholas NW Gulf Threat
Posted: Sun Sep 12, 2021 9:10 pm
by Stratton20
I think those 00z hurricane models are too far east, looks like the center is tracking more WNW at the moment
Re: September 2021: TS Nicholas NW Gulf Threat
Posted: Sun Sep 12, 2021 9:18 pm
by Scott747
Recon is doing an unusual flight pattern trying to fix a center. Surprised they haven't headed to the ne to investigate that area.
