MAY 2019: Wednesday Storm Complex/Scattered Showers To End May
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1025 PM CDT Sat May 18 2019
.DISCUSSION...
Have seen a series of strong to severe thunderstorms moving
across northern Houston county. The severe threat from now until the early morning hours is expected to be basically the just
issued tornado watch area. The cap has held strong for most of
the area this evening, but expect thunderstorm coverage to
increase overnight generally NW of a Madisonville to Conroe to
Liberty line.
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1025 PM CDT Sat May 18 2019
.DISCUSSION...
Have seen a series of strong to severe thunderstorms moving
across northern Houston county. The severe threat from now until the early morning hours is expected to be basically the just
issued tornado watch area. The cap has held strong for most of
the area this evening, but expect thunderstorm coverage to
increase overnight generally NW of a Madisonville to Conroe to
Liberty line.
Don't worry, that flips with sea breeze season. Storms die when they pass Navasota - the Aggiedome.Cpv17 wrote: ↑Sat May 18, 2019 4:18 pm The weather south of 10 is pretty boring most of the time. It seems like areas north of 10 get more frequent rains and storms. Areas south of 10 are just too far away from the center of the lows to see any action. That’s basically how it’s pretty much always been for as long as I can remember.
It's still all north and east of here. There is still a chance it could back-build the the Southwest, but chances are really dwindling now.
From earlier:
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1137 PM CDT Sat May 18 2019
.AVIATION...
A line of storms over NE TX will scoot E-SE overnight and could
still clip KUTS (Huntsville) between 06-08z. Elsewhere, just some streamer
showers will be possible as capping continues to suppress
activity. Short term guidance has struggled tonight with regard to
convective potential but the 03z HRRR did initialize well so there
could be some showers that redevelop near the Houston terminals
between 07-10z. MVFR ceilings are expected overnight with
possible IFR ceilings along the coast. MVFR ceilings will mix out
in the afternoon with VFR conditions expected during the late
afternoon and evening. MVFR ceilings are expected to redevelop
between 03-06z. 43
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1137 PM CDT Sat May 18 2019
.AVIATION...
A line of storms over NE TX will scoot E-SE overnight and could
still clip KUTS (Huntsville) between 06-08z. Elsewhere, just some streamer
showers will be possible as capping continues to suppress
activity. Short term guidance has struggled tonight with regard to
convective potential but the 03z HRRR did initialize well so there
could be some showers that redevelop near the Houston terminals
between 07-10z. MVFR ceilings are expected overnight with
possible IFR ceilings along the coast. MVFR ceilings will mix out
in the afternoon with VFR conditions expected during the late
afternoon and evening. MVFR ceilings are expected to redevelop
between 03-06z. 43
Not even Livingston - wow.
It seems there is some disappointment in the lack of thunderstorms with all the action to the north of us. There's some hope for rain down the stretch, however, next couple of weeks do look fairly dry for our area. Several notes to make on the weeks ahead...
First: Significant severe weather potential is on tap for the Central Plains on Monday. Wouldn't be the least bit surprised if the SPC upgrades to a 'High' risk by tomorrow morning. The only thing that may hold that back is the uncertainty in convection firing beforehand. However, my hunch is that any discreet cell that develops along the dry-line will quickly go TOR warned. If you know anyone up in the TX Panhandle and in Oklahoma, wouldn't hurt to reach out to them to make sure they are weather aware. This will eventually turn into an MCS overnight Monday into Tuesday morning. Unfortunately the CAP will win again for those along I-10 and south as southwesterly winds will prevail keeping a lid on any action getting this far south. Maybe a few streamer showers like we had last night, but not expecting much at this time.
Second: High Pressure will build in the SE U.S. allowing for a heat wave from Alabama into the Carolina's. Some areas will approach triple digits, which will be 10-15+ above average for those folks. Thankfully the ridge doesn't look to build over us, allowing for our temperatures to remain steady in the low 90s. However, with little rainfall from now till the end of May, the ground will start to dry out some and mid to potentially upper 90s is possible heading into the first week of June.
Third: With the High building off to our SE should allow for our typical seabreeze showers and thunderstorms during the heat of the afternoon. Our attention will then need to turn towards the tropics the first part of June. Way too early to be worried about anything, but as always, nice to be aware of the potential. Models have been consistent that an organized wave may develop in the Western Caribbean from some energy crossing southern Central America from the Eastern Pacific. It's important to also note that models are also consistent in doing this it seems like every year around this time with nothing actually coming from it. As Steve mentioned, the MJO will be in a somewhat favorable stage for tropical mischief. Regardless of development, I do believe that we will have some deeper tropical moisture work this way from the Caribbean as we head into June. The CFS weeklies have been pretty consistent with this. Depending on how strong the ridge is to our SE will depend on how much moisture is fetched this way as the bulk of it could get pushed more to our SW in south TX into northern MX.
Fourth (last): The CPC does have a slight increase in precip probabilities for June.
Looking at the long range, the CPC continues with an above normal precip heading into July and August with a weakness in the central U.S. due to potential ridging out to our West and East.
An 'average' temperature wise summer could be in the cards. While this is long ways out and I expect changes heading into the summer, it's worth noting that with potential ridging to our west and east and a potential active MJO heading into late June (pictured below). While this may ease the 'heat dome' worries for us, consequently, this would increase tropical moisture in the central and western Gulf.
All is subject to change of course. This is Mother Nature. Just observations I see as we head into the most miserable time of the year (heat/humidity wise
)
First: Significant severe weather potential is on tap for the Central Plains on Monday. Wouldn't be the least bit surprised if the SPC upgrades to a 'High' risk by tomorrow morning. The only thing that may hold that back is the uncertainty in convection firing beforehand. However, my hunch is that any discreet cell that develops along the dry-line will quickly go TOR warned. If you know anyone up in the TX Panhandle and in Oklahoma, wouldn't hurt to reach out to them to make sure they are weather aware. This will eventually turn into an MCS overnight Monday into Tuesday morning. Unfortunately the CAP will win again for those along I-10 and south as southwesterly winds will prevail keeping a lid on any action getting this far south. Maybe a few streamer showers like we had last night, but not expecting much at this time.
- SPC Day 2
Second: High Pressure will build in the SE U.S. allowing for a heat wave from Alabama into the Carolina's. Some areas will approach triple digits, which will be 10-15+ above average for those folks. Thankfully the ridge doesn't look to build over us, allowing for our temperatures to remain steady in the low 90s. However, with little rainfall from now till the end of May, the ground will start to dry out some and mid to potentially upper 90s is possible heading into the first week of June.
Third: With the High building off to our SE should allow for our typical seabreeze showers and thunderstorms during the heat of the afternoon. Our attention will then need to turn towards the tropics the first part of June. Way too early to be worried about anything, but as always, nice to be aware of the potential. Models have been consistent that an organized wave may develop in the Western Caribbean from some energy crossing southern Central America from the Eastern Pacific. It's important to also note that models are also consistent in doing this it seems like every year around this time with nothing actually coming from it. As Steve mentioned, the MJO will be in a somewhat favorable stage for tropical mischief. Regardless of development, I do believe that we will have some deeper tropical moisture work this way from the Caribbean as we head into June. The CFS weeklies have been pretty consistent with this. Depending on how strong the ridge is to our SE will depend on how much moisture is fetched this way as the bulk of it could get pushed more to our SW in south TX into northern MX.
- CFS Weeklies
Fourth (last): The CPC does have a slight increase in precip probabilities for June.
- One Month Precip
- Three Month Temp
- Three Month Precip
An 'average' temperature wise summer could be in the cards. While this is long ways out and I expect changes heading into the summer, it's worth noting that with potential ridging to our west and east and a potential active MJO heading into late June (pictured below). While this may ease the 'heat dome' worries for us, consequently, this would increase tropical moisture in the central and western Gulf.
- MJO
All is subject to change of course. This is Mother Nature. Just observations I see as we head into the most miserable time of the year (heat/humidity wise
)Blake
Boomer Sooner
Boomer Sooner
Quite warm and sultry out there today. Summer is definitely here.
It’s 95 here with a heat index of 113!
It's disgusting outside
Chances for rain this week do not look impressive, and even if we get something it won’t be much. Time to get the sprinklers ready and watch my water bill double...
Pretty big thunderstorm between Tomball and The Woodlands right now. Whoever is under that will probably pick up a quick inch of rain.
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MontgomeryCoWx
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MontgomeryCoWx
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We have hail now
Team #NeverSummer
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Katdaddy
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I watching this strong thunderstorm grow while walking our dog Bella-rue on the trails here in W League City.
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
659 PM CDT Sun May 19 2019
TXZ199-200045-
Montgomery TX-
659 PM CDT Sun May 19 2019
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY
UNTIL 745 PM CDT...
At 659 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Pinehurst, moving northwest at 10 mph.
Penny size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.
Locations impacted include...
The Woodlands.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
659 PM CDT Sun May 19 2019
TXZ199-200045-
Montgomery TX-
659 PM CDT Sun May 19 2019
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY
UNTIL 745 PM CDT...
At 659 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Pinehurst, moving northwest at 10 mph.
Penny size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.
Locations impacted include...
The Woodlands.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.
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Andrew
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You are the lucky (or unlucky) area in all of SE Texas. Getting some nice overshooting tops in the middle. Probably will be the most amount of rain you see this week.
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MontgomeryCoWx
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I’ve had 1.8 inches in a hour with it winding down
Team #NeverSummer
Lucky!! 95% of SETX got nothing today.
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