August 2020:

[DoctorMu]

Well so much for the 12z GFS. It initialized on the n end of Haiti

Will that be thrown out?

No. Just something to keep in mind.

12z GFS is about 50 miles south off Louisiana vs 06z. Should translate to a between Houston and Beaumont landfall. We'll see.

[DoctorMu]

Wow. The 12z GFS sends Marco towards Texas. Not much left of it though but it does have it staying out over water instead of moving inland into LA. Crazy!

Yeah, that left turn is about 150 miles south as Marco slides west along the coast and disintegrates around Galveston...

[Cpv17]

12z GFS is into SWLA. Looks to be near Cameron or just east of there.

[Stormlover2020]

Basically tx/la

[Cpv17]

The 12z GFS is about maybe 10 or 20 miles west of the 06z.

[DoctorMu]

Will that be thrown out?

No. Just something to keep in mind.

12z GFS is about 50 miles south off Louisiana vs 06z. Should translate to a between Houston and Beaumont landfall. We'll see.

Beaumont, LaTX border

[Karen]

It would really help if you would say which storm you are referring too when you post. Thank you for the information

[Rip76]

So if Laura were to head this way, just say Galveston landfall for a point of reference.

We would be probably looking at Thursday morning timeframe?

[Cpv17]

Looking back at the 12z GFS, it initialized way too far north. It initialized on the north side of Haiti and the center is on the south side of the island. This thing could stay well south of Cuba.

[snowman65]

Looking back at the 12z GFS, it initialized way too far north. It initialized on the north side of Haiti and the center is on the south side of the island. This thing could stay well south of Cuba.

which would mean a more westward track?

[tireman4]

It would really help if you would say which storm you are referring too when you post. Thank you for the information

Laura and I agree. Make sure to the viewers what storm you are referring to. Some folks cannot download the maps on their phone or they are at work

[weatherguy425]

To visualize the initialization issue with the 12Z GFS run, I’ve attached the MSLP track with Laura (tweeted by Maue). Notice how far north it “thinks” Laura is centered right now... not the best run and indicative of the problems that some models are still having.

Image attached.

The ACTUAL center is closer to the southwestern Peninsula of Haiti. Movement remains WNW.

[txbear]

Wow, Marco looks impressive on infrared. Seems to really have gotten his act together.

[tireman4]

The Center of Laura, as per NHC coordinates as of 15:31

[weatherguy425]

Also, here is the latest GEFS-Para (new GFS) MSLP track ensemble. There is still a strong - strongest yet - signal of a further west track once in the Gulf.

Is this the be-all, end-all? Nah.

But, yet again, shows us that multiple options are still on the table.

[Cpv17]

Y’all need to read this:

https://twitter.com/toddkimberlain/stat ... 6587205634

[Scott747]

The Ukie initialized a little better but still a bit to far n and e. Brings a strong 3 to near the border.

Hopefully the Euro is initialized correctly.

[tireman4]

Days like this I miss Avila at the NHC.

[DoctorMu]

Also, here is the latest GEFS-Para (new GFS) MSLP track ensemble. There is still a strong - strongest yet - signal of a further west track once in the Gulf.

Is this the be-all, end-all? Nah.

But, yet again, shows us that multiple options are still on the table.

GFS-Para is bringing Marco in just west of Beaumont on Tuesday.

[jasons2k]

I’m not sure how much further they will adjust the track west. I kinda think models are really honing in now around the TX/LA border.

Careful. We need to view the entire picture (operational + ensemble) along with what is happening now. If anything, “center” is still running a touch south of forecast and may stay on the southern coast of Cuba - core may remain intact and a stronger system than forecast may enter Gulf. A stronger system may feel building heights in the northeast Gulf more easily; trending westward.

This is not certain. But, it is way, WAY too soon to be sold on any one spot.

The last 24 hours are a lesson about initial conditions. When they aren't correct, the iterations on the models are prone to chaos theory and the butterfly effect. We should see a regression to the new mean (whatever that is) during the course of the day. Hang on.

I think we've seen that correction over the last 24 hours. Marco strengthened and accelerated north, making landfall occur about 12 hours faster. He will move off quicker and this will allow the ridge to build-back in faster and stronger than what we were seeing before. In addition, Laura has been traversing on the south and west sides of all of the model envelopes for the last 24 hours, meaning that she will likely skirt along or just SW of the coast of Cuba rather than traversing the spine, allowing a stronger Laura to emerge in the GOM, ready to deepen with the ridge to its north. In the end, this will likely result in another westward shift in the track.

It's been a busy morning of poring over data and maps. At this point, I'm thinking Mid-to-Upper Texas Coast with Laura.